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Zheng Cotton Yesterday Surprised The Highest Day In The History Of Adding Positions

2011/9/9 17:21:00 48

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Yesterday, Zhengzhou cotton

futures

The total contract position reached more than 700 thousand hands, and the single day drama increased by more than 130 thousand.

Despite its accession to the "hot club" last year, its focus has steadily increased, and the 100 thousand increase has been frequent.

Before the mid high price reached 33000 yuan / tonne in mid February, its total position remained under 500 thousand hands, and it lasted for more than half a year in February.

Decline

Per ton of more than 10000 yuan, the "gravity" of its holdings increased to 700 thousand to 800 thousand.

The reality is so dramatic. In the second half of 2010, the price of cotton doubled.

Floating surplus

Become a "fashion", and this year's cotton constantly adding positions, it represents the pursuit of empty funds and their prey - trying to "copy the bottom" of the game between the bulls.

The game ended in a long failure in the whole 3~6 month, but since mid July, the decline in cotton prices has slowed down and has shifted to a low level.

day by day

Intense and open positions are also increasingly volatile and unclear.

In July 18th and July 27th, Zheng cotton futures had about 74 thousand hands and 110 thousand hands in the "big account", but by July 29th, Zheng cotton was holding down 95 thousand positions.

Although the variety was added to the warehouse one week later, it reduced about 220 thousand hands in three days on August 5th, 8 and 9.

In August 24th, Zheng cotton futures increased 124 thousand positions, while in August 26th and September 5th, it spit out 150 thousand positions.

At present, Zheng cotton is at a low level of 20000-22000 yuan / ton, and the cotton price in the international market has just returned to 100 cents / pound. Shortly after that, it picked up about 20% in one and a half months. However, too many Zheng cotton positions have made people worry about the persistence of the rebound in domestic cotton prices.

Due to the strengthening of the US guidelines on cotton prices and the decline in the excellent and good rate of cotton in the United States, the recent funding has suddenly been a "whim" for more cotton last year.

According to the latest statistics from the US Department of agriculture (USDA), as of September 4th, about 44% of American cotton was rated "bad" and "bad", which increased by 3% over the previous week, accounting for more than 1/3 of US cotton output.

Texas

The excellent and good rate of cotton also dropped by 3%.

At the same time, the net multi position positions on the US cotton futures market also increased from 25 thousand to 28 thousand in 7 months to 32 thousand.

"With the rise of the US market, Zhengzhou cotton has seen an unprecedented increase this week, but in view of the frequent turnover of big funds on Zhengzhou cotton in the past few weeks, the new position will probably soon leave in the next few trading days."

One analyst said.

He pointed out that the fundamentals of cotton are also "mountain and river day", and everywhere is news of supply and tension.

According to the global cotton supply and demand forecast released by USDA in August, the US cotton harvest area is about 9 million 700 thousand acres in 2011/12, with an expected output of 3 million 610 thousand tons, an increase of 9% over the previous month.

The domestic consumption of US cotton is 827 thousand tons, compared with that of July, the export volume was 2 million 680 thousand tons, the volume increased by about 70 thousand tons, ending 720 thousand tons at the end of the year, increasing by more than 60 thousand tons, and the inventory consumption ratio was as high as 20%.

USDA also lowered global cotton consumption in 2010/11 and 2011/12, and the end of world cotton inventory in 2011/12 also increased.

The global cotton production in 2011/12 increased by about 100 thousand tons compared with July. It is estimated that the global 2011/12 end inventory will be 11 million 470 thousand tons and the inventory consumption ratio will be 46%, which is higher than that in July and higher than that in the previous two years.

The above analysts added that cotton supply in the past year from tight to loose sharp change to test the bull's confidence, which is a month from Zheng cotton's uncertain position changes can be seen.

However, from a larger cycle, the position of Zheng cotton futures has been steadily increasing. This shows that more industrial capital and medium and long-term investors have entered the market. The improvement of capital structure will enable Zheng cotton futures to better play the function of price discovery and weaken the guiding power of US cotton to China's cotton price.