It Is Unlikely That The US Will Push Qe3 In The Short Term

However, it is unlikely that the US Federal Reserve will continue to take further easing measures in the near future due to the weak demand of China's financial sector in the near future.

　　 Europe and America The economy will remain weak

China Securities News: in recent weeks, the European sovereign debt crisis has continued to evolve. The market is very worried about the financing capacity of European banks, and the outlook for economic recovery in Europe and the United States tends to be negative. Do you think the European and American economies will enter a double recession?

Liu Yuhui: at present, the capital of European banks is under impact. The European banking system has accumulated about $4 trillion in southern European debt. Once the rating of public debt is lowered, assets will be revalued, and capital will shrink, which will lead to a contraction in the overall credit of Europe, resulting in further slowdown in investment and consumption, and it is difficult for the economy to recover sustainably. In the financing market, bank capital financing and government public debt financing are in a state of competition, which makes interest rates high and poses a serious threat to the recovery of the real economy.

Negative economic growth in Europe and the United States is unlikely, but low growth will become the norm. European and American governments and households have very high debt. In the case of high debt, both sides will face the process of deleveraging in the future. Faced with debt reduction and shrinking demand, enterprises are unlikely to expand on a large scale to increase employment. Enterprises are indifferent to investment and banks are not willing to lend, which will inevitably lead to weak economic growth.

But the US economy will not get worse. The micro level of the US economy is relatively good.

First, the cash flow of the corporate sector is at the best level in history. Apple, for example, has no debt but has $76.2 billion in cash and highly liquid assets. With the rapid development of tablet computers and mobile phones, apple shows that American enterprises have not lost their intrinsic vitality, suggesting that people should not underestimate the self-adjusting ability of the micro level of the US economy, and should not ignore the huge development potential of the U.S. system advantages, innovation spirit and legal protection.

The second is the quantification of US $2.4 trillion easy After the policy, the current cash and reserves of the U.S. financial sector are at a historical peak. From $316.55 billion and $43.58 billion in July 2008, they soared to $1.17 trillion and $1.14 trillion when the economy began to recover at the end of 2009, and further rose to the historical high of $2 trillion and $1.67 trillion in June this year.

Therefore, the possibility of another liquidity shock extreme event similar to that in September 2008 in the United States is very small. In general, the government of Europe and the United States will return to the state of low government debt growth in the long run. Correspondingly, the global currency devaluation will be more rampant, and the global inflation will be further deepened and evolved in the future. The European and American economies will continue to be "two low and one high" (low growth, low interest rates and high inflation).

It is unlikely to push qe3 in the short term

China Securities News: market speculation that the Federal Reserve will launch new easing measures in September. Do you think the Fed will launch qe3?

Liu Yuhui: the new U.S. fiscal stimulus plan and the pressure of long-term fiscal expenditure decide that the Federal Reserve will definitely need to buy government bonds in the future to stabilize the medium and long-term interest rates in the Treasury bond market. It is inevitable that qe3 will be introduced in the future, and the specific time window depends on the current situation of the public financing market.

Besides the U.S. Federal Reserve and other countries, there are also several major channels for investors to buy oil stocks, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve and other countries. As the US Treasury bonds are shrouded in the halo of risk aversion, international investors may adjust the allocation of stock funds to reduce the risk aversion demand European debt The allocation of U.S. Treasury bonds may also be withdrawn from risk assets such as stocks. All these factors support the financing needs of the US Treasury market.

When the market can not meet the financing demand, in order to suppress the medium and long-term interest rates, the Federal Reserve must take action. At present, the demand for safe haven in the U.S. Treasury bond market is very strong, and the possibility of the Federal Reserve to take action at present is small.

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