Market Forecast CPI Growth Of Not Less Than 6% In September, Monetary Policy Or Immobility

At the end of the month, with the release of multiparty data, the market generally expects September. CPI Year-on-year Gain It will be no less than 6%. Although price inflation is expected to be more obvious in the four quarter. relieve However, at present, CPI is still at a high level. Considering the recent sharp fluctuations of the world economy represented by the euro area, it may cause a sustained impact on China's economic growth. Monetary policy is neither suitable for relaxation nor sustainable. Tighten So the market judged that monetary policy remained immobile in October. probability Larger.

　　 Gain September will still be over 6%. 　　

Not less than 6% is the market's consistent forecast for the September CPI year-on-year increase, but whether the CPI increase in September will exceed 6.2% in August is controversial. 　　

Judging from what has been released, it is more likely that there may be no more than 6.2%. Li Xunlei, chief economist of Guotai Junan, said that the CPI rose by 6% in September, of which food prices were 13.2% compared to the same period last year, and the non food prices were 2.9% over the same period last year. 　　

According to him, in September third weeks (12 to 18 days), the Ministry of Commerce's food price increased by 0.5%, and has been rising for five consecutive weeks, but the increase has obviously narrowed after the Mid Autumn Festival. From a small point of view, vegetable prices rose by 3.7%, while fruit prices fell again. 　　

Pork price, according to search pig net data, the fourth week of September (19 to 25 days) pork, live pigs and piglets prices have dropped. Pork prices fell second weeks after the Mid Autumn Festival. The high price of pig is beneficial to the supplement of sow and live pig * * *. According to the latest data from the Ministry of agriculture, the number of pig farms has reached 466 million at the end of 8, which is not far from the high point of 470 million in the middle of 2008. At present, the pork price increase has slowed down, and the absolute price of pork is expected to reach the peak after the Spring Festival in 2012. 　　

In addition, in the fourth week of September, the wholesale price of agricultural products decreased by 0.07% in the Ministry of agriculture and remained at a high level in the last two weeks.

"Overall, the price of the Ministry of agriculture rose by 1.7% in the first 4 weeks of September compared with the mean value in August, and the food price in the first 3 weeks of the Ministry of Commerce rose by 1.9% compared with the mean value in August. The Bureau of food statistics in the first quarter of August increased 2.2% compared with the mean value in August. It is estimated that the CPI food price in September will be 1%, up 13.2%. Li Xunlei said.

Bohai securities also predicted that the new price increase factor of CPI will reach about 4% in September, thus making the CPI in September reached 6% to 6.1% level; the state securities predicts that CPI will rise 6.1% to 6.2% in September compared with the same period in September, and that the CPI in September will increase by 6% to 6.2% in September.

However, CICC believes that CPI will rise to 6.2% to 6.4% in September. According to its latest report, the rising price of food in the first three weeks of September is seasonal, mainly reflecting the pulling effect of food demand on the eve of the Mid Autumn Festival and national day. By the end of September, food prices are hard to see, and food prices may rise by 1.5% to 2% in September. Historical data show that there is also a seasonal trend of non food prices in September, and non food prices are expected to rise by 0.2% in September.

Societe Generale predicts that CPI will rebound again to around 6.3% in September, up 0.1 percentage points from last month. Chief economist Lu Zheng commissar of Societe Generale Bank said: "in August, the CPI ratio of food could be around 1.2%, and the non food chain rose to 0.4%. Then it was estimated that the CPI ratio in September could be between 0.5% and 0.8%, with a median value of 0.65%. However, due to a 0.5 to 0.6 percentage point decline in September, compared with last month, it is estimated that CPI will fall to 6.2% to 6.4% in September, with a median value of 6.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month. {page_break}

　　 inflation Fourth quarter pressure meeting relieve 

Although there is debate about whether CPI will rebound in September, the market generally believes that the pressure of price rise will be more obvious in the fourth quarter.

IMF pointed out in the latest China Economic Outlook - the latest forecast of staff in 26, that domestic inflation has reached a peak and will steadily decline in the second half of the year, and will gradually return to 4.5% level by the end of the year. At the same time, IMF also said that there is still uncertainty about the transmission time and scale of pork inflation to total inflation, which has increased the difficulty of short-term prediction. However, if food supplies are not further impacted, inflation should continue to decline, to 3% at the end of 2012.

"Although CPI remains at a high level of about 6% year-on-year, it should be noted that the price of pork in the early stages of the CPI push up has begun to fall, and the pressure on the rapid rise in prices has eased. At the same time, taking into account the fact that the tail factor will gradually reduce to zero in the second half of the year, as well as the local government's efforts to strengthen the management of circulation, and reduce the price of food supply through the market and the production base, price regulation is gradually starting to work. In addition, the recent sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the United States has led to the return of international commodity prices, which can also alleviate the pressure of China's import inflation. Therefore, we expect that July will be the high price point in the year, which has dropped in August, and will continue to fall in September, and the inflection point will form in the third quarter. " Tang Jianwei, senior macroeconomic analyst at Bank of communications Financial Research Center, said.

But at the same time, he said that in the long run of labor costs, international commodity prices still hovering high, the long-term mechanism of government regulation needs to be improved, and inflation pressure relief mainly comes from factors such as tail off factors and domestic inflation expectations, the price drop may be limited during the year. CPI in 11 and December may still be around 4%, and the average annual increase of CPI is around 5.2%.

Li Xunlei said: "in July, prices have reached the peak of the year, and the trend of future inflation is determined. In the short term, the rate of inflation is slower than expected. In September, CPI was still at a high level of 6%, and CPI in October also had 5.4%, but inflation will drop to below 5% after November.

In addition to domestic factors, the easing of imported inflation pressure is an important reason for the general view that the pressure of rising prices will ease. According to the Tx Investment Consulting Co report, last week, the international market commodity prices sharply callback, gold spot, LME copper, LME aluminum and NYMEX crude oil prices fell 8.53%, 13.78%, 5.64% and 9.1%, respectively, of which NYMEX crude oil price and LME copper price hit a new low in the past 1 years. In the medium to long term, the probability of continued decline in commodities is greater and sustainability is stronger. The sharp return of commodities is conducive to slowing down inflation expectations. {page_break}

　 Monetary policy is forecast to remain unchanged for the time being.

The pace of domestic economic growth will also continue to slow down. The market generally believes that although domestic demand is still strong, the recent instability of the world economy will continue to impact China's economic growth.

"We think China's economy will not escape the turmoil of the EU market." Wang Tao, a Chinese economist at UBS, told the economic reference daily. According to him, the growth of the developed economies will drop sharply, which led to the recent downgrading of China's GDP forecast by the UBS, which lowered the growth rate from 9.3% to 9% in 2011 and down from 9% to 8.3% in 2012.

Wang Tao said that the global economic downturn will at least restrain China's exports. In 2010, China's exports accounted for 27% of GDP, and export industry contributed greatly to employment. In the first 7 months of 2011, China's direct exports to Europe accounted for 22% of the total exports. In addition, the global economic downturn may lead to an escalation of protectionism, which is also bad for China's export industry.

On the one hand, the price increase is still high, but the future is expected to fall. On the other hand, the domestic growth rate may be slowed down by the international economic shocks. The expectation that monetary policy will remain immobile is the mainstream of the current market.

Lu political commissar said that although the overseas economic constant consumption, but about 20% of the export is still quite normal, and the experience of about 13% of the industrial added value still corresponds to a higher than 9% of the GDP growth. The new credit with stable balance and stable growth rate also clearly shows that the current economic growth situation is still not out of the normal economic boom. Recently, the position of the central bank officials on China's economy "continuing to change from the excessive growth of the previous policy to the orderly growth of its own growth" indicates clearly that the current economic slowdown is precisely the return from "too fast to normal" and therefore acceptable. In the context of current price hovering at 6%, the whole macro-control policy is still far from being relaxed. He also said that the rapid economic development of Europe and the United States and the sharp decline of international financial markets have made the macro authorities more closely follow the situation and prepare contingency plans for possible future reversals. But for October, it is expected that the policy will continue "three no", that is, the "three no" position of "no adjustment of benchmark interest rate, no reserve requirement ratio and overall policy orientation".

IMF also pointed out that given the pressure of asset price and the deterioration of credit quality in the next few years, the monetary tightening this year should be carried out as planned. For the following reasons, there is no need to provide additional support for the economy at this stage: first, another round of food shocks may restart inflation. Second, under the influence of low real interest rates, lack of financial instruments and low cost of holding property, the potential tendencies of the real estate bubble still exist. Third, China is still eliminating the side effects of facilities taken to cope with the 2008 crisis. It will take time for banks, governments and companies to restore their balance sheets to health. The existence of these risks means that fiscal and monetary stimulus measures should continue to be withdrawn, as was envisaged by the government at the beginning of the year. IMF also said that in view of the continuing concern about credit quality and bank balance sheets, any monetary policy China should adopt should be moderate.

However, the report issued by Everbright Securities believes that the policy is expected to ease in the fourth quarter. The report said that because inflation will be downward trend, and economic growth will continue to slow down, between the "growth" and "anti inflation", the balance of policy will be more back to the former in the fourth quarter. Due to the severe situation of private capital, the interest rate of bills has been rising sharply. The force of policy easing will be credit, which will ease the capital hunger of the real economy (especially small and medium-sized enterprises) through the relaxation of credit.