Law Of A Share Market

China's stock market has been in existence for twenty years. Although it has some years for us, it may still be in infancy only when compared with the mature stock market abroad.

In the past four years

Therefore, I want to summarize the short-term, medium-term and long-term laws of Shanghai stock index, which may help some future operation ideas.

First,

In the past three months, the Shanghai stock index has been on the low side. The basic path is: "the external market is going down sharply, the next day we jump to the air and open low, then we will make up for the gap, but the rebound kinetic energy is insufficient, once again, we hit a new low, and finally wait for the next lower jump."

Moreover, this is an effective cyclic process.

Since there have been no gaps in the area in the past three months, we have reason to believe that for every aspect of the game, every jump and low opening is the point of short-term intervention, and the subsequent small back is also the position of the short line.

Two, the middle law

We can see that since the stock index futures, the range swing indicators on the weekly line have a one-to-one correspondence effect on the fluctuation of stock index.

Moreover, once the index is at the bottom, its corresponding stock index is lagging behind, but it will soon see a low level.

For a long time, this method is quite effective.

At present, the index has begun to close to the bottom, although it may also form one to two weeks of passivation, but it is already very low.

At the same time, let's go back to the daily chart. If we want to have a decent stage rebound here, it must be equal to the amplitude of the preceding wave in the adjustment range. This position is probably below 2379 points, but this neckline is not far away from here.

Therefore, in terms of the medium-term rule, it is now getting closer to the target position, which can be regarded as the bottom area, but the real effective sign should be the 30 day moving average of Shanghai Stock Index station.

Three, long-term rule

If we look back at the first two big quotes, one at 998 points and 1664 at a time, there is a rule for all two times, that is, there is a process of breaking through the 120 month moving average.

And generally do not fall through a large margin, if a long time to fall, the future evolution is the reversal of the historical big market.

If the time is not too long, the future development should be a big stage of rebound.

At present, the Shanghai stock index's 120 month average stays at 2258, while the Shanghai Stock Index closes at more than 2400 at the end of the week, so the departure from the 120 month moving average is also very close.

In addition, from the annual K-line point of view, China's stock market in the past twenty years, the most serious situation is only two times overcast, and this year is second year K Yin line, and it is now the end of September. So, if it is bad, it will only weaken to the end of the year, but the probability of stabilizing next year is strong.

Summary: stock market is in the bottom area.

After summarizing the three laws of short, medium and long, the author thinks that it is now the bottom area. In addition to 20% of the stocks still need to release the risk, nearly 80% of the stocks have been able to make a half yearly fixed investment: now buying bargain, maybe half a year after a surprise.

As for investors who have already been in deep positions or full positions, at this time, we hope they will have the confidence to make the final commitment, and they will still be able to abandon the stock market and finally have a success.

The reason why the stock market is attractive is that the change is only in a flash.

Oriental Securities Pan Minli