The Stock Market Doesn'T Have To Care About The Lowest Point.

Recently, the market has been in a state of precarious state.

In September 21st,

In such a market, friends of financial institutions often have a question at the party: how do you see the market now?

This is a very old problem.

This is a problem that has baffled countless market participants in the course of previous market failures, and of course it is also a difficult question to answer.

But even so, I would like to share with you the views on this issue.

In the strict sense, it is not only realistic but also harmful to pursue completely and accurately guessing the market bottom (for example, 998 points in 2005 and 1664 points in 2008).

In fact, as long as we pursue a relatively correct choice in the bottom area, it is already very good.

Just like that year, whether you are in the 1050, 1100 or even higher position, it is correct to choose to buy and stick to it.

It seems easy to understand. It doesn't seem to be easy to do it. If you put it back in the same year, you would be more likely to make the wrong choice and join the team short enough near 1000.

Why do I say so?

The reason is not complicated: first, if you are not buying at the bottom area, but in the strict sense of the big bottom point, then even if you bought at a slight margin of more than 1000 points, and saw that the market is still falling, you are likely to make a wrong decision to sell because as long as you sell, the market is still down, you will think your choice is right, even if you sell at 1010 points, the next day fell to 998 points; second, when the market was close to 1000 o'clock, people around you are like avoiding plague as a way to avoid stocks, it is very difficult for you to be independent.

A few days ago, the central bank released third quarter savers.

In fact, you know the outcome. If it turns out, it's a good young man. When the market was depressed in 2005, it took delight in looking for opportunities in the stock market. In 2007, it did not buy stocks and did not talk about stocks.

Yes, as you can see, whether it's 998 or 1664, or earlier, the bottom is coming, everyone is so tired of the stock market, and when we get close to the top area, everyone talks about the stock market.

From this point of view, it is no doubt that it is near the bottom area again, because we have seen the same characteristics as we have seen before: people are tired of the market once again, even if it occasionally rises, people have become bored and lazy.

Does the starting point of this judgment sound very ordinary and simple?

Yes, behind buy and sell is that people are at work, and people's emotions and desires, human fears and greed, even if 100 years later, their nature will not change.

Therefore, the most fundamental logic of the stock market is actually "road to Jane".

In fact, it is not enough that the investment market really becomes a big winner. Only extreme acuity is not enough. What it needs is moderate acuity and confusion. It is keen in the bottom area and the top area, and is confused in the subsequent process.

If you can't afford it, even if you buy it on the 998 day (June 6, 2005), what can it do?

During the period from July 11th to 21, at least 5 times the market approached 1000 points.

The most intelligent people, who are at most tied, have already run away, let alone catch up with thousands of points after the market.

Of course, the current market has entered the bottom area, not that the bottom of the market will be able to achieve instant results, and the reverse market will appear immediately. The main reason is that the three major obstacles that restrict the sharp rise of the market have not been fundamentally eliminated: first, inflation; two, the regulation of real estate; three, the expansion of the market is beyond the norm.

Another worry is that the outlook for the economic situation in the US and Europe is still uncertain. If their situation deteriorates further, it will be difficult for China's stock market that is hard to stand upright.

These considerations are reasonable. But without these factors, how can the market buy you cheap stock?

In any case, at present, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 earnings ratio is only about 12 times, you should consider more about buying stocks rather than the other way around.

If you are particularly concerned about the lowest point, just because of fear, because of loneliness, and now decide to sell stocks, you are likely to become a high buyer again in the future because of greed and loud voice, unless you decide to leave the market forever.