China Should Focus On Preventing Exports From Falling Sharply.

The Ministry of commerce website recently issued a signed article by Sheng Baofu, the Policy Research Office of the Ministry of Commerce, pointing out that the subprime mortgage crisis has significantly increased the downside risks of the world economy, and does not exclude the possibility of further upgrading and even becoming a financial crisis.

The global economy is unstable and the uncertainty is increasing. Will it lead to a fundamental reversal of excess liquidity in the future and trigger global financial and economic turbulence?

The article also reminds us that China should pay close attention to the development of the situation, actively guard against the risk of rapid export decline due to the drop in external demand, resolve the risks of domestic mortgage market, and make overall plans for promoting domestic demand, maintaining financial stability, promoting reform of exchange system and restraining inflation.

The article points out that at present, the world economy continues to grow.

But with the subsequent impact of the subprime crisis, the slowdown in the US economy is unavoidable, the EU and the Japanese economy are also affected, and the risk of the downside of the world economy is obviously increasing.

Although the United States, the eurozone and the Japanese central bank have taken many interventions to try to prevent the crisis from deteriorating, the global financial market turmoil has not ended.

The subprime mortgage problem has not yet been fully exposed. The fundamental problem of the market has not yet been solved. The panic caused by the credit market crisis has not subsided, and there is a possibility of further deterioration in the future.

The downside risks of the US economy have increased in four aspects: the US housing market has been extended and aggravated; the US personal consumption has gone down; the US economy has the risk of deceleration; the probability of the US economic recession is rising.

In this case, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke and finance minister Paulson changed their optimism before, and admitted that the subprime mortgage crisis and the housing market downturn would seriously drag down the US economy. The Fed's latest report shows that since the three quarter, the regional economy in the United States has generally slowed down, and the euro area economy has been hit hard.

Because of its close ties with the US financial market, the euro area has been hit by the subprime crisis and is a major disaster area.

The credit markets in the region are very reluctant to lend money, and the financing difficulties of major banks and financial institutions are increasing, and the environment for economic growth has greatly deteriorated.

In addition, the high euro exchange rate and the cooling of the housing market have also hit the EU economy.

The article points out that the growth rate of the world economy will slow down, and the emerging markets may face greater financial risks.

The further deterioration of the sub-prime mortgage crisis will lead to more serious global financial market turbulence and credit crunch risk and lead to a reversal of the global "low cost capital era".

The first result will lead to an increase in financing costs, which will affect corporate finance. Two, the global wave of mergers and acquisitions will be suppressed.

There is a risk of turning around in the world economic cycle.

Facing the changes in the international economic situation, the author believes that the next stage should pay close attention to the development of the situation, actively guard against the risk of rapid export decline due to the drop in external demand, and resolve the risks of the domestic mortgage market, and make overall plans for promoting domestic demand, maintaining financial stability, promoting reform of exchange system and curbing inflation.

There are big variables in our foreign demand situation, and US consumption demand may further slow down, which will affect China's export and growth goals to a certain extent.

At present, China's direct exports still rely heavily on the US market.

In the first three quarters of this year, China's exports to the United States increased by 15.8% over the same period last year, and exports to the US still account for 19.4% of China's total exports, after 20% of the EU.

The central bank's research shows that my exports to the US are highly correlated with the US consumption data, and the US economic growth slows by 1 percentage points, and my exports will drop by 6 percentage points.

At present, China's exports to the US are mainly consumer products such as electronic products, furniture, toys, footwear and clothing.

China's foreign trade enterprises, which take the US as the main export market, are likely to suffer from the embarrassment of shrinking orders.

Export statistics in the first three quarters of this year showed that with the slowdown in the US economy, the export growth rate of the US showed a downward trend.

Especially since the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in July this year, the export to the US has dropped considerably in the third quarter.

In the first quarter of this year, my exports to the United States increased by 20.4% over the same period, down to 15.6% in the second quarter and only 12.4% in the third quarter.

The change of US interest rate and the reversal of our interest rate policy may partly offset my efforts to curb domestic inflation and the overheated housing market and stock market, and increase the difficulty of my macroeconomic regulation and control.

Financial markets in developed countries continue to be turbulent, which will have a negative effect on our domestic market.

International capital may also make me a breakthrough in the direction of risk aversion and profit seeking, which is a challenge to my financial regulation.

In view of the close relationship between the new round of economic growth and the prosperity of external demand, the interactive relationship between our country and the world economy will be improved. Next year, the downward trend of world economy will be the biggest variable that the macro-economy faces. Once the export falls sharply, it may make the current economic growth cycle turn into a turning point.

Therefore, macroeconomic regulation and control need to take full account of the uncertainty risks that may arise in the external economy and closely observe the external situation.

Under the premise of maintaining the stability and continuity of macroeconomic policies, we should adopt a two-way and flexible macro policy according to the changing situation.

The international economy is the biggest variable we face next year. Since August this year, the export and surplus have fallen twice. The situation of surplus trade surplus is changing rapidly. Governments at all levels and export enterprises need to better guard against the risks of world economic fluctuations, and pay attention to maintaining the stability and continuity of foreign trade and economic policies.