Xinjiang: Cotton Costs Rise, Prices Fall &Nbsp, And Cotton Growers Are Disturbed.
In October 27, 2010, Xinjiang City reported "crazy cotton fever" and "cotton price rise".
"Reported the cotton market price fever in 2010.
Cotton grower
,
Cotton merchant
,
Cotton market
Tremendous impact.
In the report, cotton farmer Zhigang earned money from cotton. Liang Dongya, general manager of the cotton and ramie company of the Corps, described cotton prices with "mad". Professor Liu Weizhong of Xinjiang Agricultural University analyzed calmly that there was no final winner in front of high prices. High cotton prices were castles in the air. Once cotton flower crashed, cotton growers, cotton enterprises, spinning enterprises and related industries will eventually suffer.
Hard hit
。
In the twinkling of an eye, a year has passed, and the cotton harvest season has come. What is the market of cotton this year?
Starting from the beginning of this year, cotton prices began to fall all the way up. Many cotton spinning enterprises seemed to have taken the roller coaster. Last year, their profits Ceng Pan reached the highest level in 10 years, and this year is cotton price.
Plunge
A cry of grief.
In March 28th, when the cotton prices surged, the national cotton reserve, which had saved the market, launched again, specifying the purchase and storage price in 2011, which was 19 thousand yuan per ton (seed price of cotton was around 8.5 yuan per kilogram), which seemed too far from the cotton farmers' expectations.
In September, cotton purchasing enterprises in Xinjiang began to buy and buy, and the price has been hovering around 8.5 yuan per kilogram.
In September 23rd, the price of Xinjiang cotton purchased by China cotton information network was 8.66 yuan per kilogram.
In September last year, the average price of cotton in the region was 9.46 yuan, and the average price in October was 11.6 yuan.
What impact will cotton prices fall at a high speed on cotton farmers?
What kind of impact on textile enterprises in cotton producing areas?
What is the situation of cotton farmers, cotton enterprises and cotton traders in the cotton market after a year?
Cotton prices are on roller coaster.
Rising costs and falling prices
"You interview every day, you know more information, the price of these two days is eight yuan eight, do you say I sell or not?"
In September 23rd, when the reporter contacted Zhigang, a cotton farmer in Shawan County, he had just weighed the flowers.
A phone call from a reporter, Chai Zhigang immediately inquired about the price information, and in last year's interview, Chai Zhigang seemed to be waiting for the cotton price rise.
Chai Zhigang told reporters that in 2010, he planted 200 mu of cotton and received more than 60 tons.
Unginned cotton
The average price per kilogram of seed cotton exceeded 10.5 yuan, and he made nearly 300 thousand yuan in cost, which is the best harvest of his family cotton for more than 20 years.
He originally planned to increase the planting area in 2011, but because of the rising land contract fee, he still planted 200 mu of cotton this year.
Although the planting area did not increase, because of the high cotton prices last year, all the cotton related agricultural materials have risen in price, and the cost of planting has gone up at once. For example, Zhigang said that fertilizer last year increased to 67 yuan per bag, up to 80 yuan this year, and the plastic film last year was 40 kg 10.5 yuan, up to 12.8 yuan this year.
In 2010, the labor cost of cotton thinning is 100 yuan per day, and this year is at least 150 yuan, sometimes 200 yuan.
The price of pickup flowers has also gone up this year. In 2010, the price of food and clothing was 1.6 yuan per kilogram in 2010. This year, it is generally more than two yuan per kilogram, plus round-trip fare and meals, and the cost of picking flowers is 2.5 yuan per kilogram, which accounts for more than 1/4 of the cotton sales price.
For half a year, not yet.
Flower picker
Earn a lot.
According to the survey of Jinshi futures cotton research group, the cost of planting cotton per mu in Northern Xinjiang in 2011 was 1928.46 yuan, an increase of 22.71% over the previous year.
Chai Zhigang said, because cotton prices were very high last year, so everybody's expectations were very high. He and many cotton farmers' psychological prices were about 10 yuan.
Unexpectedly, the price has been hovering around 8.6 yuan at the beginning of this year's acquisition, and only 9 yuan can be sold at a high level.
To this end, in the half a month or so, Chai Zhigang has been watching, hoping that the price of cotton will be higher in the later stage, and more than 10 tons of cotton will not be sold in the warehouse.
Although they are reluctant to sell as they did last year, their mentality is different.
Unstable cotton prices made him very nervous, afraid of two days even the current price can not be sold.
And the technician hired by Chai Zhigang also suggested that he sell it now. It is impossible to sell the price of last year. After all, the drop in cotton price is a fact.
The technician thinks that from cotton growers' point of view, the higher the cotton price is, of course, the price of cotton is too high last year.
At that time, the estimated price was 7 yuan per kilogram. Who would have thought that it would exceed 10 yuan?
From the high price of 7.4 yuan to 8 yuan per kilogram in 2003 to 4.8 yuan per kilogram of cotton sold in 2008, such ups and downs can not withstand the market risk simply by relying on cotton farmers' own strength.
According to the statistics of Cotton Association of autonomous region, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang was increased by 21 million 909 thousand mu in 20l0, an increase of 3.64%; and this year, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang was 23 million 840 thousand mu, an increase of 12.5% over the same period last year.
Last year, the total output of cotton in Xinjiang was 2 million 480 thousand tons, a decrease of 1.6%. This year, the output is expected to reach 3 million tons, an increase of 20%, and the recovery will reach the level of production in 2009.
From the data, we can see that in 2010, the output is decreasing and the price is rising. In 2011, the quantity increase and the price decrease.
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A pickup is picking cotton.
Cotton is like a bomb.
Cotton farmers are in a state of mind. What is the mentality of cotton processing enterprises as the first pass of cotton entering the market?
"In fact, we do not have the bottom of our hearts. We now receive the cotton in our hands, just like holding a bomb. We are all thrilling all day."
In September 26th, a person in charge of the new cotton industry in Manasi County, who did not want to be named, said.
The official told reporters that on the same day, the acquisition price of the new cotton industry ranged from 8.8 yuan to 9 yuan.
In less than half a month, they have bought more than 3000 tons of seed cotton, almost 1/3 of last year. Many cotton farmers have accepted the fact that cotton prices have dropped, and they no longer sell goods and sell them.
The official said that under normal circumstances, cotton enterprises rely on loans to acquire cotton.
However, there are also some enterprises that are acquired by hot money. The venture capital enterprises are more daring. The cotton purchasing enterprises in Manasi also have traces of idle capital.
In 2010, many cotton enterprises rushed to buy cotton like crazy. The price was higher than one, and your side rose 10 Fen, and the price rose 20 Fen.
Because of insufficient funds and the lack of market, they only received 9000 tons of cotton at last.
I didn't expect cotton prices to turn sharply after the end of the takeover. The cotton that was recovered could not be sold after it was processed into lint. In order to repay loans, almost all cotton processing enterprises had to lose money to sell cash. They received less and the pressure was much smaller.
The loss is not only the cotton processing enterprises such as Xinzhong cotton industry, many cotton spinning enterprises have their own cotton ginning plants, but also have spinning enterprises. The pressure from cotton to cotton yarn makes it difficult for enterprises to breathe.
Since March this year, cotton prices have plummeted all the way. The cotton spinning enterprises that bought cotton at a high price have been dragged into a loss situation. At the beginning of the year, the high priced cotton purchased by 30 thousand yuan was losing 3000 yuan to 5000 yuan per ton, and cotton spinning enterprises complained incessantly in the great fluctuation of cotton prices.
With the fall of cotton prices, yarn prices are also falling. The production, production and shut-down of textile enterprises in the mainland have made Xinjiang cotton spinning enterprises receive fewer orders, and a large number of cotton yarns have secured the funds of enterprises.
The wages of the workers should be sent, the production of the enterprises should be maintained, and the capital chain has become the biggest problem that plagued the cotton textile enterprises.
The western Akesu cotton company bought 3000 tons of cotton cotton per ton of 32 thousand yuan until June this year.
Although the state subsidize 400 yuan per ton of cotton, if it is less than 32 thousand yuan per ton, it will be paid.
Lin Shujing, a cotton merchant who has been doing cotton business for more than 10 years in Hami, received tens of thousands of tons of lint at the price of nearly 30 thousand yuan per ton last year. By the beginning of this year, twenty thousand tons had been accumulated in the hand, so there was no way to cut the meat and sell it at the price of 26 thousand yuan per ton.
The head of Xinmin cotton industry said that this year they made loans to the Agricultural Development Bank for 100 million yuan, and planned to buy 13 thousand tons of cotton. Although the cotton harvest is much better than that of last year, they still do not have enough money to earn money.
However, this year's cotton purchase and storage price is a reassurance, at least it will not lose money.
Injury industry
"As early as I know this year's cotton is such a price, it is better to grow melon.
We have 30 mu of melon in the village, earning more than 70 thousand yuan, and the output value per mu is more than 2000 yuan. If it is this price, we will not grow cotton next year.
Cotton farmer Zhigang said.
Not only is Chai Zhigang, but many cotton growers have figured out next year's reduction in planting area.
"The cost of planting cotton in Xinjiang this year is 1800 yuan to 2100 yuan per mu. According to the average cost of 1900 yuan per mu, and the yield of 300 kg per mu, the breakeven point is 6.33 yuan per kilogram.
According to the calculation of the storage price, the seed cotton price is between 8.5 yuan and 9 yuan per kilogram, and the profit of cotton growers is 2 yuan to 2.5 yuan per kilogram, and the yield per mu is more than 600 yuan.
Compared with last year, it will yield less than 1200 yuan.
If seed cotton price is less than 8.5 yuan per kilogram, it will affect cotton growers' enthusiasm for cotton planting next year, which will lead cotton growers to plant crops such as forest and fruit.
If cotton growers insist on not selling for less than 8.5 yuan, they will be very disadvantageous to the cotton circulation enterprises in Xinjiang.
In August 12th this year, the 2011 Xinjiang cotton situation analysis conference and purchase and sale fair, Wei Gaocheng, party secretary and chairman of Xinjiang Cotton Industry Group Co., Ltd., worried.
According to the price of cotton after opening the scales, Wei Gao Cheng's worries may become a reality. If the planting area is greatly reduced, the output will decrease, and the price will rise again, forming a vicious circle.
It has been described that the game process of cotton prices is like beating drums and spreading flowers, and finally the flower people are the ones who cry.
Xinjiang textile industry experts say that this is not a good thing for the vicious circle of excessive cotton prices.
Although the state-owned cotton enterprises play the role of "flood storage and water storage" in the cotton operation process, they have protected the interests of cotton farmers to some extent, and have also reduced the risk of acquiring cotton by some textile enterprises.
But this kind of big fluctuation will bring a blow to downstream textile enterprises and small and medium enterprises, which will inevitably react to the front end of the cotton textile industry chain.
The veteran in the industry suggested that while protecting the interests of cotton farmers, the state should also formulate corresponding policies to support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises in the middle and lower reaches of cotton spinning.
At the same time, Xinjiang should change its way of relying mainly on export lint and cotton yarn as soon as possible, changing from the low end of the textile industry to the middle end and the high end, and really turn the resource advantage into the commodity advantage.
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