Three Quarter Economic Performance Data Released Today &Nbsp; GDP Growth Will Still Exceed 9%.

According to the schedule released by the National Bureau of statistics, on the 18 day, the Statistics Bureau will release the national economic performance in the third quarter of 2011, including the gross national product (GDP) and the regions in the third quarter.

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At present, China's economy is facing the two escalation of the European debt crisis and the beginning of the world economy.

In this regard, a number of agencies and experts also forecast the third quarter GDP growth rate. Most institutions and experts agreed that China's economic growth rate will continue to fall, but there will not be a sharp decline.

GDP growth is expected to increase by 9.2% in the three quarter, and other economic indicators in September will also be slowed down.

According to a report quoted by the securities times, Lu Zhongyuan, deputy director of the development research center of the State Council, China's economic growth rate will still exceed 9% in the first three quarters of this year, which is in a reasonable range of growth. It is estimated that the annual economic growth rate will still exceed 9%.

Ding Anhua, chief economist of China Merchants Securities, expects that, as a result of sustained

In addition, the recent research report released by UBS also pointed out that China's GDP growth in the three quarter will slow down to 9%.

As export growth slows, GDP growth will slow to 9% in the three quarter from 9.5% in the two quarter.

Wang Tao, an economist at UBS, said the biggest risk facing China in the next 12 months is the global slowdown or recession.

He said, though

However, Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, has expressed a relatively positive view. "Although the external debt crisis in Europe and the United States continues to ferment, leading to the deterioration of our external economic environment, data on investment and imports are still strong. This indicates that domestic economic growth is still endogenous. It is expected that in the fourth quarter of this year, economic growth will stabilize with the reduction of price rises and the tightening of policy tightening, and the annual economic growth should be maintained at around 9.4%."

Looking at the views of all sides, the parties concerned are worried about whether China's economy will decline or not, and the continuous high operation of GDP growth will make it difficult for the current macroeconomic regulation and control policies to achieve the desired results. Therefore, how to make the economic growth to a reasonable interval after adjusting the economic "hard landing" warning, and to adjust the economic structure to appropriate space will be the next important issue for us to consider.

CPI rise at the end of the year is expected to bid farewell to the "6" era.

On the 14 day, the Statistics Bureau released data showing that China's CPI rose by 6.1% in September.

Among them, food prices rose 13.4% over the same period last month, unchanged from last month.

Experts believe that with the slowdown in prices of pork, vegetables and oils and fats, the driving effect of food prices on CPI will gradually weaken in the first 3 months of this year.

A report from the people's daily pointed out that the high price of food has become an important factor for CPI to continue running at 6% high.

In response, Liu Yuhui, director of the China economic evaluation center of the Finance Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview that CPI remained at a high level in September, mainly due to the influence of the tail factors.

As a result of the two holidays of "Mid Autumn Festival" and "National Day", the price of food increased significantly during this period, which has a great impact on the rise of CPI.

According to reports, in July this year, CPI reached an inflection point as scheduled. Then the consumer price index fell for two consecutive months. For this reason, Xu Hongcai, Vice Minister of Information Department of China International Economic Exchange Center, said that in September, CPI declined slightly, indicating that the situation of falling prices continued to take shape. This is an important turning point.

However, it is not hard to see that the decline in CPI data is far below the level it has started since last year, and experts have also made different predictions about the possible level of CPI at the end of this year.

"The CPI index is expected to continue to decline in the next few months, and it will be reduced to about 4.5% by the end of the year."

Liu Yuhui analysts believe that this is due to the gradual decline in food prices, while the overall base will also come down.

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In addition, Liu Yuhui stressed that the impact of the continued downturn in the overseas market economy, China's PPI index fell significantly than expected, as investment fell faster, there will be a double down in the future, that is, total demand and total supply decline.

In contrast, Xu Hongcai's prediction is more conservative. He thinks that in October and November, the speed of CPI will be larger than that of last year, and it will drop to around 5% at the end of the year.

Prices are still high. Macroeconomic policies will be dominated by "stability".

In the face of the rapidly rising price movements, the long-term economic growth at a high level, and the increasingly complex international economic situation, scholars generally believe that China's macroeconomic regulation and control policies in the fourth quarter should be based on "stability", and monetary policy should not be rushed to "loose".

For the future direction of monetary policy, Liu Yuhui said that although CPI is still at a high level, the decline of PPI has increased. To prevent the stagflation of China's economy, it is unlikely to introduce tighter monetary policy. It will neither raise interest rates nor raise the reserve requirement ratio.

But at the same time, monetary policy will not be relaxed.

Tight monetary policy still needs to continue for some time.

Qu Hongbin, chief economist of HSBC Greater China, recently said that because inflation is just easing up, the overall loose monetary policy will not appear, and the central bank has begun to implement selective easing measures, such as its measures for small companies.

As China's credit growth continues to normalize, the central bank will maintain monetary policy stability.

At the same time, monetary policy and fiscal policy will maintain a stable economic environment over a longer period of time, but on the contrary, it will help speed up the pace of economic restructuring in China.

Regarding this, Fan Jianping, director of the Economic Forecasting Department of the state information center, said that the best way to deal with the current world economic fluctuations is to "do well in our own affairs", that is, structural adjustment and consumption reform.

Under the current adjustment of the world economic development mode, China may be able to take substantial steps in expanding consumption and expanding domestic demand.

In addition, Li Daokui, director of the China and world economic research center of Tsinghua University, pointed out during the media interview that the reason why China's economic growth continued to slow down is not because of the lack of China's economic development momentum, but because of the pformation of growth pattern, which is embodied in land finance, financing methods and bank's profit pattern.

The current economic slowdown is hard to avoid, so we need to find a balance of growth in deceleration.

To pform the economic structure in the deceleration and change the old economic growth mode that relies on external demand and high investment rate is the top priority in the future.