Gui Haoming: Rebound Has 300 Spaces &Nbsp; The Midline Trend Has Not Yet Formed.

Despite the rebound from last week

First, now

Second, although inflation is still at a high level, the general direction of macro tightening has not changed. However, a series of recent events have prompted people from other angles to show that local signs of "directional loosening" have appeared.

It includes requiring commercial banks to guarantee loans to small and medium enterprises, and to increase tolerance for risks. It also emphasizes stabilizing export rebates and RMB exchange rate.

Although these policies have specific directions, the message is clear.

Some people questioned that in the first half of the year, the relevant departments had issued "10 small loans" documents, which also required commercial banks to support small and medium-sized enterprises, but in fact they had not been effectively implemented. Therefore, there is a reservation for this similar policy again.

In fact, there are not many breakthroughs in the policy itself, but after a number of problems have occurred in various parts of the country, it is stressed that their executive power is different.

It should be said that the fine-tuning of this policy will have a greater impact on the real economy.

Third, the stock market has fallen since the beginning of this year, while bond and repo rate are rising, which shows that the market risk-free return is rising.

Generally speaking, if this situation can not be changed obviously, the equity like investment products of the stock market will hardly be able to perform well.

But in recent years, bond prices have risen and yields have fallen, and bond repo rates are declining both in the inter-bank market and in the exchange market.

Of course, the emergence of such a situation does not mean that money is loose and the relationship between supply and demand has been improved, but at least it will lead to a no risk return rate of the market, which will have a positive impact on the stock market.

Therefore, combined with the above three factors, we can see that the market is indeed entering a bottom area, and there are corresponding conditions for forming a rebound market.

If the stock index has risen 300 from the lowest level in the year, this possibility should be relatively large, and the short-term market can be optimistic.

However, after all, the environment is still grim. The most worrying thing is whether the speed of economic growth will accelerate after the policy continues to tighten. This will increase the uncertainty of the efficiency of listed companies.

It is not ruled out that some of the stocks with low price earnings ratio will later rise due to lower earnings and this will greatly shake the foundation of value investment.

In addition, the real estate prices are generally declining. Will this lead to the collapse of a large number of real estate enterprises? If this happens, what kind of impact will it have on the current financial market?

Therefore, at this time, we can not say that all kinds of risks have been fully released, especially after the stock market has rebounded, and the undervalued situation will become less prominent.

Investors have high expectations for the high growth of listed companies. Once this expectation is lost, the market will be hard to maintain.

Therefore, as far as the current market situation is concerned, the trend of the middle line may not be very clear, and the market has not been able to invest at a safe time, so we still need to be cautious.

By the way, the short term optimism and the prudent judgement of the midline do not mean that the stock market will fall below the previous low once again after the rebound of the stock index, but only to show that the stock market has started a rebound at the bottom stage, but it is limited by various factors.

The operation of the market will be a twists and turns, has not yet formed a clear upward trend in the midline, so investors should still strengthen risk awareness in operation.