The Macro Inflection Point Emerges From &Nbsp; One Day Flies 3 "Chicken Feather Letters".

Just as most shareholders are almost losing their confidence, A shares The Jedi counter attack was suddenly staged.

Behind the stock market rebound, we can not do without the good news, they are all related to the "inflection point". For instance, the NDRC officials said that CPI had a turning point, and that the price of the 18 commodities fell and HSBC China PMI preview increased to 51.1. And these aspects Inflection point Together, the whole thing is reflected. Macroscopic The inflection point of the economy shows that the "hard landing" of the market economy is gradually decreasing.

Of course, the evolution of China's macro-economy remains to be seen.

Long lost "red Monday", A shares "up" on the word!

All this stems from the three positive news from yesterday's (October 24th) macro policy: first, the NDRC said that CPI will be less than 5% in the next two months and the price inflection point is confirmed; secondly, the Statistics Bureau released data showing that since October, 18 commodities have fallen in price; moreover, HSBC China PMI preview value has risen to 51.1 in October.

"One day's good news from economic growth and inflation, plus the stock index's strong rise of 53.06 points, is up to 2.29%, which easily makes people forget about the four quarter economic growth." Yesterday, a fund manager told the daily economic news reporter.

Good one HSBC PMI return to the ups and downs

HSBC's China manufacturing PMI data (final value) has been below the 50 boom line for 3 consecutive months since July this year, followed by 49.3 in July, 49.9 in August and 49.9 in September.

The PMI preview data in October swept away the three quarter decline, and output index rose to a 6 month high. The new orders index also rebounded sharply.

According to some studies, the marked recovery of PMI in October was mainly due to the improvement of new orders and export orders. Since July, the manufacturing industry's new orders index has exceeded 50 for the first time, and it has rebounded by 2.3 percentage points. The export orders index also recorded for the first time in six months, exceeding 50, rising to 52.4.

Previously, the data released by the National Bureau of statistics can also prove that the economy is developing well. The growth rate of industrial added value in September was 13.8% over the same period last year, up from 13.5% in August.

"In October, the PMI value of the manufacturing sector returned to expansion, thanks to the rise in the new orders and output index, which made the manufacturing activities in the four quarter stable." Qu Hongbin, chief economist of HSBC China, said.

He also said that the rebound of PMI in October should be able to resolve the impact of the recent slowdown in export growth, indicating that China's economy has not declined. In the fourth quarter, China's exports will remain at a low level, but there will not be a sharp decline similar to that in September, mainly because the US economy is slowly stabilizing and sustained emerging market demand.

In the HSBC PMI initial value, the input price index representing the cost of business dropped sharply to 54.3, a 4 month high from last month. The HSBC report thinks this indicates that late inflation pressure will be further alleviated.

Qu Hongbin pointed out that "inflation indicators in PMI confirm that output prices have been growing steadily, and price inflation has slowed down. All these data have proved our view that there is no risk of a hard landing in China."

The Australian new bank's latest research report also predicts that the Chinese economy will maintain growth of about 9.4%~9.5% this year. Some of the current policy initiatives are conducive to further economic growth in China. Overall, soft landing will be achieved this year.

NDRC confirms inflation inflection point

In addition to the good momentum of economic growth, another good news yesterday came from the trend of inflation.

The newly announced CPI rose by 6.1% in September. Although it has declined for two consecutive months, it is still over 6%, and the market is still in a panic about the inflation of micro-blog.

However, this fear has now been cleared up. The message from the NDRC and the Bureau of statistics is like two chicken feather letters that convey the confidence of policymakers in controlling inflation.

Peng Sen, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, said that since August, the overall price level has started to fall, and the characteristics of price inflection points have been confirmed during the year. It is estimated that CPI (year-on-year increase) can be controlled below 5% in the two months after this year.

He also explained in detail that since the beginning of this year, the government has adopted a series of policies and measures to stabilize market supply, reduce circulation costs, rectify market price order, and promote the return of money and credit to repay loans. The momentum of rising prices has been basically controlled.

Imported inflation pressure has also been gradually weakened with the weakening of European and American economies. The iron ore spot has reached a new low of nearly $150 per ton in the past year, down 18% from the beginning of September, while the copper share in London fell by 24% during the same period.

Liao Qun, chief economic strategist of CITIC Bank International China business, believes that the fall of imported inflation is mainly due to the continuous decline of international commodity prices since the third quarter. The decline in investment prices is expected to be gradually reflected in CPI.

According to his prediction, China's monetary policy adjustment will appear in the first quarter of next year.

Good three Bureau of Statistics: 18 major food prices

Compared with penson's statement, the food price data from the Bureau of statistics are also convincing. The average price changes of main foods in 50 cities in mid October showed that 29 kinds of food prices showed 18 downward trend, only 7 kinds of food prices rose, and 4 kinds of food prices were unchanged from the first half of October.

Specifically, falling foods include meat and poultry, soy products and vegetables. Among them, rapeseed and Chinese cabbage fell by 12.6% and 8.6% respectively, and pork prices fell by 1.2%. In addition, Tetra Pak pillow milk also declined slightly. Flour, peanut oil, rapeseed oil and other prices remain unchanged.

The three increase in the current period was 5.8% for domestic bananas, 1.3% for pasteurized milk, and 0.4% for rice. The price of edible oil was basically unchanged from the first half of October.

"Daily economic news" reporter learned that since mid September, meat and poultry products prices have maintained a downward trend. In addition to pork prices, egg prices also continued to fall. The decline in food prices since October has further shown a downward trend in inflation.

In the second week of Huachang securities in October, the food industry weekly said that empirical data showed that the growth rate of food prices in October over the previous years has decreased compared with that in September, and some years have even dropped to negative growth rates. Considering the favorable factors such as internal and external demand drop, the price pressure has eased this month.

Guotai Junan Securities also stated that it is expected that inflation will be significantly relieved from October.