Planting Area Is Generally Increasing. Can New Cotton Market Be Broken?

Since March of this year,

Planting area is generally increasing this year.

In the middle of this month, the cotton research team of Meyer futures brokerage Co., Ltd. has passed several cotton producing areas in Xiangyang, Jingzhou and Hubei.

Due to the high cotton prices and drought in the early stage of planting this year, the sowing area of cotton in our province is 20% higher than that of last year.

As far as growth is concerned, the growth of Honghu and Zhijiang is relatively good. Cotton growers have already harvested three hundred and five hundred catties in the early stage. The average number of cotton peaches per plant is 50-60, and a few can be over 70.

Cotton, peach, and other places in Qianjiang, Jingzhou and Hanchuan are concentrated between 40 and 50.

In Honghu, Zhijiang and other places, the average yield per mu is 500 - 600 Jin, an increase of 10%; Jingzhou, Qianjiang and Xiangyang are expected to maintain 400 - 500 Jin, equivalent to last year.

Due to several heavy rain in July, cotton fields in Qianjiang and Hanchuan lost much of lodging, cotton stalks were short and there was a little withering phenomenon. In the 4-5 month, Jingzhou was affected by drought, the cotton fields were growing unevenly, there were obvious signs of replanting, the sparse branches of cotton sliver branches were late, and the pests and diseases in Xiangyang were serious.

Artificial uplift of agricultural materials increases the cost of cotton planting

Affected by drought and waterlogging, agricultural labor input increased significantly this year.

In many farms in Jingzhou, there are many wells shed along the way.

Despite three consecutive days of showers during the survey, the ditches are still dry and weeds.

According to the introduction of Master Liu of port town, there are 3 wells in 10 households on average this year, and the cost of well drilling plus pipeline facilities costs about 1200 yuan.

In the early part of Honghu, the cost of irrigation was mainly borne by local governments.

In terms of agricultural resources, seed prices have not changed much. 50 to 70 yuan a pack, the varieties are mixed. Most of them are mainly cotton mixed with Hubei, and there are many series.

Pesticides and fertilizers generally rose by nearly 20%, urea up to 100, compound fertilizer increased to 160, and the cost of preparing fertilizer was slightly different. The input of agricultural inputs was sometimes related to cotton growers' requirements for cotton planting. Under the average, pesticide was 200 yuan and fertilizer was 300 yuan. Farmland for agricultural machinery was 60 to 70 yuan per mu, and agricultural film 25 to 30 yuan per mu. In general, agricultural cost per mu was 650 to 700 yuan.

Other miscellaneous expenses, such as rental fee, general farm reservation, and other places are leased. The annual cost of large Mu is around 250 yuan, and the average land cost of the comprehensive small Mu is around 170 yuan.

If you use labor, you usually gather 2 to 3 days to pick flowers. According to 80 yuan / day manual calculation, the average mu expenditure will increase by 100 yuan.

Considering the rental and concentration of flowers, please pay for the labor. The average cost per mu is about 1000 yuan.

If we add drought and well drilling and artificial seedling reinforcement, the high-end cost will be around 1500 yuan / mu.

Sporadic scale, cotton farmers expect higher

Cotton farmers generally do not know much about cotton storage and storage this year.

At present, the early flowers have been listed sporadically, Xianxian sporadic hawkers receive 4.05 yuan / Jin, Jingzhou Cen River 4.2 yuan, Zhijiang 4.5 yuan, the price difference is mainly due to the difference in cotton quality and purchase quantity is small.

Zhijiang's early local flowers can produce three grade cotton, and the linen percentage is very high, and the trial rolling can reach 43%. Although the sawtooth enterprises can not get such a high linen percentage, according to the 1.3 yuan cotton seed, the three level flower comprehensive processing cost can also be maintained near 19000 yuan / ton, regardless of the reserve or spot sales, there are good profit margins.

Based on the high price of last year, some cotton farmers are still waiting for the price of 5 yuan. Meanwhile, the local cotton farmers also have greater resistance to the 4.2 yuan purchase price of the local river, because their initial expectations are 4.5 yuan / Jin.

Inventory of large textile enterprises is relatively stable.

The textile enterprises selected for the survey are above 100 thousand spindles.

Compared with small and medium-sized textile enterprises, large enterprises have relatively strong financial strength. Most of the respondents said that bank indicators had not been used up and the pressure of funds was not large.

As the sales channels and modes are relatively mature, the product structure of large enterprises is relatively fixed. In the sample, 1/3 enterprises increased the proportion of polyester and viscose, and these enterprises originally produced blended yarns.

The remaining 2/3 enterprises maintain combed or carded cotton yarn.

At the same time, in the purchase of leather cotton, more favored by imported cotton and Xinjiang cotton, the main difference in the three wire problem.

In the raw materials inventory, despite the continued decline in prices, large textile enterprises have been maintained in 1-2 months of cotton stocks.

For new cotton purchases, they are more interested but cautious.

Since the new institutional reform has been delayed for five years, the 200 type enterprises can be operated until 2014. Based on the threshold of this year's storage, textile enterprises are optimistic about the market of small cotton.

Yarn inventory, the current production and marketing balance, yarn inventory has not been significantly reduced, still maintained at 1-2 months.

Cost pressures increase and textile enterprises adjust their structure

Recently, yarn prices have rebounded. Combs C32s and JC32s offer 26500 yuan and 31000 yuan respectively. According to the raw material conversion of four and three grade, spinning has nearly 1000 yuan profit.

Although the downstream prices have been raised, the total amount of orders is still small.

Half of the businesses said the move was mainly due to Christmas and Spring Festival orders, which will end at the end of October.

Under the premise of tight monetary policy this year, when the new flower is listed on the stock market, the problem of capital will still be the main barrier to curb the market rebound.

Combined with recent yarn performance, 70% of the enterprises believe that the purchase and storage will be carried out. In November, cotton will still close to the purchase and storage price.

In addition to the sluggish downstream market, textile enterprises are still facing multiple problems.

Due to the long-term pattern of industrial surplus, the competitiveness of cotton textile processing industry is gradually declining. Facing the appreciation of RMB and the increase of labor costs in recent years, if the scale of enterprises is not deep and high-end, the real scale is still difficult to solve the practical pressure.

Taking processing cost as an example, it is mainly reflected in the increase of labor and electricity charges.

Xiangyang Xin Xiang Cotton Textile Co., Ltd., a person in charge told reporters that the total cost of labor increased by 10% to 20% this year. The annual income of ordinary spinning workers is about 20 thousand. Compared with 80-100 yuan per day, the income of textile workers is relatively low, and relatively speaking, the technical ability of spinning is relatively limited, so there are basically no young people in the general office, all of whom are women over thirty years old.

Secondly, in terms of electricity tariffs, this year's high price increase is 5 points, the low price increase is 3 points, and the cost of ton yarn is also increased by about 200 yuan.

Faced with the above situation, individual enterprises have begun to invest more in equipment to reduce the demand for labor and pursue more high-end and efficient products.