CPI Is Expected To Be Around 4.5% In November.

According to the arrangement, the main economic data for November will be released on Friday.

In October, CPI (domestic residents)

along with

Food prices continue to dive

According to the National Bureau of statistics, CPI climbed to a peak of 6.5% in July and fell all the way down to 6.2% and 6.1% in August and September respectively. In October, CPI rose 5.5%, a 5 month low.

Guoxin Securities estimated that CPI growth in November could fall to 3.8% to 4%.

According to the Yangtze Securities Research Report, CPI is expected to rise 4.6% in November.

The CPI prediction interval given by many other institutions varies in 4.1%~4.4%.

Behind the optimistic research data of support agencies is the recent trend of food prices dived.

According to the data released by the Ministry of Commerce in November 29th, the price of pork has decreased by 10.7% since mid September, while the price of eggs has fallen by 5% in the past two months.

Prices of winter storage vegetables also continued to drop. White radish, Chinese cabbage and wax gourd decreased by 5.8%, 4.4% and 3.5% respectively compared with the previous week.

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Analysts believe that as long as November CPI ring up not more than 0.4%, year-on-year

Loose monetary policy

However, analysts pointed out that the pressure of price inflation still exists, and "inflation control" will not leave the policy horizon.

Even if market organizations generally predict that the CPI growth rate in November will be around 4.5%, it is also much higher than the target value set by the state at the beginning of the year, and there are many factors of price increase in China's economy, especially the rise of per capita wages will be swift and violent, and will be quickly pmitted to all fields in the past 4% years.

Therefore, monetary policy will not immediately become loose.

According to statistics from relevant departments, the average wage per person in many industries in China has increased by over 20% this year, and some industries with labor shortage have increased by more than 40%.

Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomic analyst at Shenyang Wanguo Securities Research Institute, believes that such a high rise will have an important impact on domestic prices. Therefore, in the face of the gradual decline of CPI, the state should be cautious about easing monetary policy.

Fang Gang, director of the National Economic Research Institute of the China economic reform research foundation, believes that as a developing country, the inflation rate is over 3% or 4%, which is very dangerous. It is easy to enter the state of vicious inflation and bad control.

Monetary policy is not going to be loose from the macro level, but it still needs to be cautious about inflation.

Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Industrial Bank, also said that policy always adjusts between economic growth and price stability.

On the one hand, although the economic growth rate is callback, the absolute growth rate is still within the acceptable range of policy; on the other hand, prices have dropped, but the absolute price level is still relatively high.

Therefore, the policy can only be said to be loosened compared with the past, but now it will not give up the goal of controlling inflation.