Variety Focus: PTA Continues To Build The Bottom

Since August, PTA (8112, -150.00, -1.82%) has been on the opposite track with other futures varieties. When other varieties have fallen down and innovation is low, the price of PTA has gone up against the market, which is related to the PTA industry chain.

PX directly upstream material is MX, while the difference between MX and PX is PX direct profit margin.

There is a certain correlation between PX profit and PTA price trend.

The bottom and top of PX profit often lie near the low and high point of PTA price, especially at the beginning of 2011. The top of profits is directly consistent with the top of PTA price, while PX profit has reached a new low at the end of 2008, and the PTA price has also gone out of the new low.

Although the recent PX profit is still high, it has dropped significantly compared with before, and with the ease of PX supply in the late stage, it is estimated that PX

PTA profit hit a new high in early 2011, and its price also hit a new high. In November 2008, when PTA profit was at the edge of the loss, its price was also at the bottom. The size of PTA profit space has certain reference value for judging the trend of PTA.

From the current PTA profit to observe, the current profit loss, hovering at the critical point of profit and loss, PTA operating rate has also declined, the future PTA market supply will also decrease, the expected reduction of supply in the future will support PTA prices to a certain extent.

The low profit of polyester fiber often limits the rise of PTA price, and the high profit point will push the price of PTA higher.

At present polyester fiber profit is in low position, especially polyester staple fiber profit has been in a state of loss, FDY and DTY polyester profits have also dropped sharply.

The compression of downstream polyester profit margins directly restricts the purchase of raw material PTA for the polyester market, and the market demand for PTA will also decrease, and PTA will inevitably fall.

From the supply side, the PTA operating rate will decline, and the supply of the latter market will also decrease, but conversely, the reduction in supply will drive up the price of PTA.

In short, it is analyzed from PTA and downstream polyester industry.