Import Tariff Adjustment Led Zheng Cotton To Rebound Sharply

Because

The Ministry of Finance announced that since January 1, 2012, China has continued to implement a sliding tax on a certain quantity of cotton imported from the tariff quota, and has appropriately adjusted the formula of sliding tax.

Simply speaking, if we calculate the cost of RMB imports according to the current 89 cents per pound of cotton, the new method will increase by nearly 300 yuan per ton compared with the old method.

The underlying reason for the recent rebound in cotton prices is that the state's purchase and storage has a substantial supporting role in cotton prices. In December 15th, the state actually collected 40 thousand tons and accumulated 1 million 570 thousand tons of storage.

In the national reserve and spot market, a dynamic balance mechanism has been formed.

That is, the spot market downturn is below 19800 yuan, the enterprise sells reserves, the latter spot market cotton is few, the cotton price has the rising condition.

By the end of November, the picking was basically coming to an end. It is estimated that cotton planting area will be 80 million 600 thousand mu in 2011. Compared with the 2010 cotton planting area of 77 million 20 thousand mu, it will increase by 3 million 580 thousand mu, an increase of 4.6%. The output is expected to be 7 million 280 thousand tons, with an increase of 16% in the same caliber.

According to the sampling survey, the national intentional planting area in 2012 was about 72 million 160 thousand mu, a decrease of 10.5% compared with this year's 80 million 600 thousand mu.

According to the global cotton supply and demand report released by the US Department of agriculture in December, the world's cotton production in 2011/12 is forecast to be 26 million 870 thousand tons, a 110 thousand tonne reduction forecast from last month, but the global consumption has also been reduced by 640 thousand tons to 24 million 240 thousand tons, and the world's final stocks have increased by 590 thousand tons to 12 million 560 thousand tons.

In this way, the annual supply exceeds 2 million 630 thousand tons.

Therefore, in the longer term, the trend of Zheng cotton will still be dominated by interval shocks.

On the 16 day, the Chinese cotton price index representing spot prices is 19067 yuan. If the 1205 contract price rises to 20800 yuan, there will be a difference of 1733 yuan per ton. After deducting all kinds of costs, it will still be profitable.