Both Inside And Outside The Textile Industry Slowed Down Export Growth Sharply.

After the storm of financial crisis, the global economy has been stretched on the string of slow recovery. The world economy has entered the stage of weakness and deceleration due to the lack of demand, and the complexity and tortuosity of the recovery have been further enlarged. In the rough and bumpy road of global recovery, it is difficult for our country to be independent. In the past three quarters, the trend of economic development was visible. China's economy is realizing a "soft landing", and the market performance of both internal and external sales deceleration has become the industry's concern.

Looking back at the beginning of 2010, the industry can still enjoy the growth of "internal and external sales mix and match" which was supported by the resumption of domestic and foreign market growth. However, in the first three quarters of 2011, the international market was affected by the slow recovery of the developed economies, the high inflation in developing economies and so on. At the same time, domestic consumption is affected by the cooling of the economic environment, high inflation and other factors, and people's consumption of clothing. demand It was partially suppressed. The fatigue of the two big markets of domestic and foreign sales has led to a sharp decline in market growth.

According to the Nelson global consumer survey, 31000 consumers in Asia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa and North America in 56 countries and regions have tracked the global consumer confidence index in the three quarter of 2011 to 88 points, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2009 (the consumer confidence index is above 100, and the confidence level is optimistic, 100 below indicates a relatively pessimistic). The three quarter of 2011 slipped to its lowest point in the last seven quarters, enough to see the world. consumption At a low ebb.

At the same time, the price trend of raw materials in textile industry is difficult to grasp this year. cost The risk of control is increasing. Coupled with the rising cost of labor, the rising cost of fuel power and the cost of logistics and business channels, all of which constitute the main driver of the increase in the overall cost of the industry, squeezing the profit margins of the enterprises.

The tightening of monetary policy in macroeconomic regulation and control has also become a magic curse on enterprises. The cost of capital raising has increased the financial burden of enterprises. The research report shows that the loan interest rate rose to 61.2% in June this year, the highest level since 2008. The real interest rate of the market has risen sharply, and the lending rate for SMEs has generally reached over 30% of the benchmark interest rate. According to statistics, in 2011 1~8, the interest expenses of Enterprises above Designated Size in China's textile industry increased by 39.2% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was nearly 9 percentage points higher than that of the main business revenue of the same period.

The continuous overweight of multi party pressure has been evolving into a factor that affects the rapid development of the industry. From the overall scale level index growth rate, in the first three quarters of 2011, the total output value of China's textile industry increased by 29% over the same period last year, the growth rate slowed down 1.1 percentage points compared with the first half of the year, slowing down 2.6 percentage points compared with the first quarter. Meanwhile, the profit of China's textile industry increased by 33% over the same period, and the rate of increase was significantly lower than that of the previous stage.

Fortunately, the whole industry is focusing on increasing the contribution rate of science and technology and the contribution rate of brand to organize production and operation. According to statistics released by China's Statistics Bureau, the profit margin of China's textile industry was 4.99% in 2011, 1~8 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, and the labor productivity increased by 21% over the same period last year. The three fee rate of the industry decreased by 0.25 percentage points over the same period last year. Obviously, the quality and efficiency of the industry are on the same level. However, it is difficult to conceal the physical energy consumption during the climbing process and slow down the overall operation of the industry.

Conjecture that by the end of the year, the demand for domestic and foreign market will slow down and the cost of comprehensive cost will continue to rise. The probability of monetary policy adjustment in the year will not change significantly.

International market

The global consumer confidence index is generally falling.

The volume of textile exports in China has declined sharply.

It is estimated that in 2011 1~9, China's textile and clothing export prices increased by 22% over the same period last year. From the perspective of export volume, the export volume of China's textile and clothing increased by only 2% in the 1~9 months of 2011, and the growth rate dropped sharply compared with the same period last year. In the growth of textile and clothing exports this year, the contribution of export volume growth is only 10%, which is significantly lower than that of 2010. Obviously, the international market has a weak trend in the import demand of China's textile and clothing.

From the perspective of international market demand, the negative economic news in the world since the middle of 2011, the economic activity in the US and Europe is weaker than expected, the Japanese economy has suffered negative growth for three consecutive quarters, the European sovereign debt crisis has deepened, the sovereign credit rating of the United States has been lowered, the high debt risk of developed countries has been highlighted, the inflationary pressures of various countries have increased, and the international financial market has been sharply oscillated. Under the impact of these major adverse factors, the instability of the world economic recovery has increased significantly. China's textile and clothing exports also suffer from the impact of the global consumer downturn.

Consumer sentiment slows down and import demand slows down

The sluggish consumption in the US market will inevitably affect its demand for imported products. In the 1~9 month of 2011, the United States imported 11.33% of the total textile and apparel products from the world, up 1.5 percentage points from the first half of the year, which is lower than the 1.7 percentage point of the first quarter. Imports and exports of textiles and clothing from China increased by only 7.89% over the same period last year, far below the growth rate of imports and exports of textiles and clothing from the United States and other major competitors in India, Vietnam and Pakistan over the same period.

The United States, the world's largest consumer, is now eating the consequences of the "excessive consumption" of the inertial economic development mode. People are reconsidering the pattern of advanced consumption and debt consumption, and at the same time, the reputation of the United States has also been questioned. The United States international rating agency Standard & Poor's in August 5th, the United States long-term sovereign credit rating from "AAA" to "AA+", this is the first time the US government credit rating has been lowered since 1917, and also caused the world's worries about the US debt crisis, and increased the uncertainty of the global market.

Recently, the US Department of Commerce released data showing that in the three quarter of 2011, the US gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 2% in the first quarter of 2011, though the growth rate was slightly faster than the first two months. According to the US labor department data, in October, the unemployment rate in the United States was 9%, down 0.1 percentage points from last month, but still at a high level.

In the case of low economic growth and high unemployment in the United States, consumer sentiment in the US has declined significantly. According to relevant data, in October, the US consumer confidence index dropped from 46.4 in September to 39.8, the lowest level since March 2009. The Consumer Federation of America recently released a national holiday shopping survey jointly launched by the National Association of credit unions. Data show that 37% of respondents believe that the financial situation is not as good as last year, 7 percentage points higher than last year; 41% of respondents said they would reduce expenditure in the upcoming holiday shopping season, and from 2000 to 2007, this proportion is usually below 30%.

In the situation of low consumer sentiment and frugality, the US retail market grew slowly, while clothing store sales were the biggest drop since December 2010. According to the financial data report of GAP, a famous clothing retailer, the company's profit fell by 36% in the three quarter, and pointed out that the challenges faced by the company will last until the holiday shopping season. It can be seen that no matter from macroscopic data or from micro enterprise reports, we can perceive the fact that the consumption and slump of the textile and apparel market in the United States are not enough.

From China's customs export data, China's textile and clothing exports to the United States are indeed not optimistic about the growth rate. According to our customs data statistics, in 2011 1~9 months, China's total exports of textiles and clothing to the United States totaled 29 billion 900 million US dollars, up 12.3% from the same period last year, far below the 11.7 percentage point growth of China's export to global textiles and clothing in the same period, which is also lower than the 1.5 percentage points in the first half of this year that our textile and garment exports to the United States increased (13.8%).

Europe is in deep danger and consumption is hard now.

Affected by the decline in consumption demand for European textiles and clothing, China's textile and garment export growth to the EU has also slowed down. According to China's customs data, in 2011 1~9, China's textile and clothing exports to the EU 42 billion 800 million US dollars, up 25.8% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 2.5 percentage points compared with the first half of this year.

In recent years, the European economy has been extremely weak, with no obvious supporting points and growth points, and can not support the huge debt scale of European countries. With the outbreak of the financial crisis and the stagnation and even negative growth of the economy, the social welfare expenditure has not correspondingly decreased, resulting in a worse fiscal policy for the less affluent government and a sharp increase in the fiscal deficit, which has led to the debt crisis.

According to recent data released by the European Union statistics bureau, European economic growth has stagnated. According to data, the EU's economic growth rate increased by 0.2% in the third quarter of this year, unchanged from the previous quarter, far below the 0.7% in the first quarter. From different countries, Germany's economy grew by 0.5% in the third quarter, the French economy grew by 0.4%, the Spanish and Belgian economies stagnated, while Holland's economy dropped by 0.3%, Portugal's economy dropped by 0.4%, and the Cyprus economy dropped by 0.7%. To make matters worse, the EU's economic growth rate data did not include two countries in Italy and Greece, which were deeply in debt crisis, and the two countries' crisis intensified in October. Some analysts believe that the euro zone has seen signs of recession. According to the report of the European Commission, the possibility of economic stagnation for a long time is very high, and it is impossible to exclude the possibility that the economy will be plunged into deep recession and continued market turbulence.

To stimulate economic growth, the European Central Bank announced in November 3rd that it lowered interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 1.25%, which means that the European Central Bank has decided to reverse the momentum of interest rate hike launched in April this year, but this action can not fundamentally solve the European debt crisis, and high inflation will continue to restrain residents' consumption. Pessimistic economic data and a deepening debt crisis have reduced consumer confidence in Europe. According to the European Commission, the consumer confidence index in the euro zone fell to -20.4 in November and -19.9 in October, which has declined for sixth consecutive months. The retail trade of the European Union has also been greatly affected. According to statistics, in September 2011, the retail sales volume of the 27 countries of the European Union decreased by 0.8% compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 0.3% compared with the same period, of which the retail sales of textiles and clothing decreased by 1.2% compared to the same period last year, and the annulus ratio decreased by 1.3%, and the decline was more obvious.

[Japan] deflation plagued the downturn

This year, although China's textile and clothing exports to Japan have maintained a relatively fast growth rate, the import demand of Japanese textile and clothing has indeed slowed down from the overall trend. According to China's customs data, in 2011 1~9, China's total exports of textiles and clothing to Japan amounted to US $20 billion 610 million, an increase of 25.5% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 0.06 percentage points lower than that in 1~8 months.

In the 8 months since the great earthquake and tsunami in Japan, the country's economy has seen a "blowout rebound" and has surpassed the trend of the United States. Many analysts believe that the Japanese economy is beginning to recover. According to statistics, Japan's third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) annulus rate is 6% growth. However, the joy is short-lived, and the October trade data released by the Ministry of Finance in November 21st showed that in October, the country's exports fell by 3.7% over the same period last year, and imports increased by 17.9% year-on-year, rising for the twenty-second consecutive month. In October, the fall in consumer prices in Japan was the first time in the past 6 months that the central bank has been questioned about the country's economy going out of deflation cycle. In a data report released by Japan's National Bureau of statistics, consumer prices fell by 0.1% in October compared with the same period last year. It can be seen that Japan's economy is still beset by deflation, and worse still, the rapid accumulation of Japanese debt and the hidden danger of sovereign debt crisis. At the same time, Japan's domestic textile and clothing demand has been warmed and then low.

According to a questionnaire survey of the textile fashion industry in Japan, the consumption situation is once again in the doldrums after the summer heat and the peak demand after the disaster. The questionnaire involved 23 industries, including fabric manufacturers, fabric processing plants, textile businesses, 43 clothing manufacturers and wholesale enterprises, 12 fashion accessories companies, 47 retail and 47 developers, and a total of 125 enterprises. The questionnaire showed that fashion consumption in the three quarter was less than 40% in the two quarter compared with the two quarter. For the overall prosperity index, enterprises believe that the three quarter has increased by 40.3% over the two quarter. More than half of respondents thought that the previous or future prosperity index showed a "downturn" or even "no change". Businesses that take a pessimistic view of the consumption climate index account for the majority. More than 6 of enterprises believe that the fashion consumption in the fourth quarter will not change much compared with the previous quarter. 35% of these enterprises believe that the recovery trend in the three quarter will continue.

[developing countries] strong consumer confidence and ample market demand.

According to our customs data, in 2011 1~9, China's exports to ASEAN textiles and clothing amounted to US $14 billion 430 million, an increase of 41.32% over the previous year, a 0.45 percentage point increase over the first half of the year, and a 10 billion 200 million increase in exports to Africa, an increase of 4.93 percentage points over the first half of the year.

While the main developed economies are suffering from economic development and debt pressure, consumer confidence in developing countries is very strong. According to Nielsen's global consumer confidence index for the third quarter of 2011, in the 56 surveyed economies, the highest consumer confidence index was India, with an index of 121 and South Africa ranked second. Besides the India, mainland China and Hongkong, the top 10 include Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates and Malaysia. It is evident that consumer confidence is abundant in developing countries.

Conjecture: is the external demand expected to improve?

At present, the global economy is not out of the path of hard recovery, and is facing new challenges. The main risks facing the world economy include: the European debt crisis may be intensified; the balance sheet problem of banks is becoming more and more serious; more enterprises are reducing inventories due to weak consumption, and the unemployment rate in developed countries is still high. These unfavorable factors will not improve in the short term, will continue to impede the recovery of the world economy and the growth of Global trade, and also create resistance to the growth of China's textile and clothing exports.

According to the British consensus, the US GDP annulus rate increased by 2% in the fourth quarter, 0.5 percentage points slower than the previous quarter, the euro area GDP growth of 0.1%, a 0.1 percentage point slower than the three quarter forecast, and Japan's GDP growth of 0.6%, a 0.9 percentage point slower than the three quarter. Economic growth in some developing countries has slowed down. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the fourth quarter, Russia's GDP grew by 4%, a 1.6 percentage point lower than the three quarter forecast value. According to the consensus, the company expects GDP growth in the fourth quarter of Indonesia to grow 6.2%, down 0.3 percentage points over the three quarter, and Malaysia GDP grew 4.7% over the same period last year, a 0.3 percentage point lower than the predicted value in the three quarter.

The lack of orders in the international market can better reflect the true picture of China's textile and apparel foreign trade. According to statistics, China's commodity exports in the 110th Canton Fair reached US $37 billion 900 million, an increase of 3% over the 109th session. According to the person in charge of the Canton Fair, the purchasers of the 110 Canton Fair in Europe and the United States have increased, but the number of inquiries has been much higher. The actual turnover has decreased by 19% and 24% respectively. The proportion of short and medium orders in the 6 months has reached 88%, which reflects the international market's cautious expectation of not being able to make a long list. The domestic enterprises are worried about the price of raw materials, the fluctuation of exchange rate and the fear of being afraid to take the long list.

Domestic demand market

Rising prices and deep contradictions are not easy to eliminate in the short term.

Two or three line city consumption potential to be excavated

The PMI index of China's logistics and purchasing Federation released in October unexpectedly dropped to 50.4%, down 0.8 percentage points in the annulus ratio, and hit the lowest level since March 2009. Whether it is the result of active regulation or the drag from the global economic weakness, the slowing down of growth has become an indisputable fact. Since the beginning of this year, the sales volume of major retail sales in China has been decreasing month by month, reflecting the fact that our domestic consumption situation is not very optimistic. And the structural data that we can observe the consumption of domestic demand can also summarize the characteristics of "the upper middle and lower reaches are not smooth" and "the gap between the East and the west is obvious".

Since the beginning of this year, China's macroeconomic environment has been affected and challenged by multiple factors such as electricity shortage, money shortage, interest rate hike and inflation. According to China's statistical data, in the first quarter, the two quarter and the three quarter of this year, the GDP growth rate reached 9.7%, 9.5% and 9.1% respectively, thus drawing a slow downward curve to our country's economic growth angle, and also becoming an important data manifestation of China's "soft landing".

While the economic growth is slowing down, the inflation pressure experienced by our residents is still very large. Although recent data show that China's inflation pressure has weakened, the CPI index has dropped from 6.5% in July to 6.2% in August, and then dropped to 5.5% in October. The trend of low price inflation has been clear, but the deep-seated contradictions in pushing up price rises can hardly be eliminated in the short term. The first life experience that inflation brings to us is the rising cost of living, which disrupts the rhythm of our normal consumption expenditure and suppresses people's desire for demand.

[market price]

Poor conduction in upper and middle reaches

In recent years, as an important member of the international primary products team, the financial attributes of cotton have become increasingly evident. Since the beginning of this year, people's worries about the economic downturn, the gradual weakening of downstream consumer demand, and the outflow of some hedge funds have led to several rounds of roller coaster price trajectories at home and abroad. According to the relevant market data, China's domestic grade 328 cotton has rushed to the high level of 31288 yuan / ton in March 10th from 27516 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, and then dropped to 19059 yuan / ton in the year's price in August 16th. In the same period, the price of polyester staple and viscose products was also adjusted by the fluctuation of cotton prices, which made it difficult for people to grasp the price trend of raw materials, and the risk of cost control has been increasing. Although the price of raw materials in China's textile industry has been oscillating in the past year, it is still significantly higher than the same period last year. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in September 2011, the purchasing price index of textile raw materials for industrial producers increased by 11.9% over the same period last year.

The rise of raw material prices must be carried out through the industrial chain so as to digest each layer. Compared with the same period, the producer price index of clothing industrial products rose slowly. In September 2011, the producer price index of clothing industrial products in China was only 104.5. Although some analysts believe that this is closely related to the conduction cycle of raw materials to finished products, it is also an indisputable fact that the profits of textile industrial enterprises are squeezed by the rising cost of raw materials. We may as well reflect on whether there is a link in the price transmission chain. Simply paying attention to the price transmission in production links can not fully reflect the changing situation of the market.

[regional structure] the gap between eastern, central and western regions is obvious.

Although the consumer confidence index of China is still in the forefront of the world as a whole, but because of the differentiation of China's own regional economic structure, the structure of China's consumer market is also quite different.

According to Nelson survey, the stability of China's consumer confidence comes from the firm confidence in the employment prospects. 69% of the respondents are positive about the employment situation in the coming year. Similarly, more than 60% (64%) Chinese consumers are optimistic about their future income expectations. Consumers in the eastern coastal and central regions are the most optimistic groups for future employment expectations. Among them, 71% of the coastal consumers believe that the employment prospects in the coming year are "good" or "very good". The proportion of consumers in the central region who hold this attitude is close to 80% (78%).

Judging from the survey of consumer confidence, consumer confidence in the eastern and central regions is even higher. From the sales data of specific commodity retail companies, it shows that the eastern tier cities are falling faster, and the two or three cities in the Midwest are relatively slow. According to statistics, after experiencing high growth in the first three quarters of October, the growth rate of retail companies sales increased significantly in October, and the first tier cities dropped to a single digit growth interval or even negative growth. The growth rate of the two or three cities in the Midwest dropped to 10%-20%. On the one hand, it shows that the consumption market in China is affected by the cooling of the macro environment and the overall decline. On the other hand, it reflects the greater potential of consumption in the two or three tier cities in China.

Guess: will domestic consumption continue to be restrained?

On the whole, although China's economic growth has slowed down for three consecutive quarters, the drop in economic growth is mainly the result of active policy regulation. Data on investment and imports remain strong, indicating that domestic economic growth is still endogenous. Economic growth is expected to slow slightly in the year, but not by much. According to the relevant research institutes, China's annual economic growth rate will remain above 9%.

From the domestic point of view, despite the easing of domestic inflation pressure, the latest figures released recently show that China's industrial added value and consumption growth rate have all dropped, and the trend of domestic economic growth in the fourth quarter is continuing to be strengthened, and the consumption demand in the domestic market will continue to be suppressed.

Conjecture that at the end of the year, under the environment of economic growth and deceleration both at home and abroad, the domestic and international market demand will slow down, and the cost of comprehensive cost will continue to rise. The probability of China's monetary policy adjustment in the year will not change much, and the pressure of corporate financing can hardly be relaxed. Under the pressure of continued pressure, it is expected that the trend of our industry will not be effectively improved.

Fortunately, the pace of industrial guidance is also accelerating at the same time that the regulation and control of the national macro-control policies are becoming more flexible. At the end of last year, the industry released the "outline of technological progress of the textile industry" in 12th Five-Year. The contents of this year's "12th Five-Year" plan and brand, sustainable development and talents will be released one after another, which will play a leading role in promoting the good development of our textile industry.