The Export Growth Of The Three Economic Circles Slowed Down &Nbsp At The Same Time.

"The foreign trade situation in 2011 is no less than the financial crisis in 2008."

This is a lot of families.

In fact, the slowdown in export growth in the three major economic circles of the country has highlighted the fact that the current export situation is indeed very grim.

According to official data, foreign trade provinces such as Guangdong, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Shandong are all vulnerable to foreign trade.

In December 22nd last year, the people's Bank of China released the results of the fourth quarter entrepreneur survey, which showed that the export orders index for the fourth quarter of last year fell for the first time in nearly 3 years, of which the export orders index was 48.7%, down 2.9 percentage points from the previous quarter, the first time it fell below 50% in the 4 quarter of 2009.

No less than 2011 of 2008.

According to the data of Shandong Provincial Department of Commerce, the export growth rate of Shandong province in the last 1 years from November to November was only 4.3%, down 7.1 percentage points from last month, which is lower than the national average growth rate by 9.5 percentage points. The data of Nanjing Customs show that the import and export growth of Jiangsu province is weak, and the import and export of foreign trade decreased by 9.8% in October last year, while the export of Shanghai was significantly weaker than that of Shanghai. The export of Shanghai exported to the EU in October last year was only 9 billion 330 million US dollars, and there was a rare negative growth. The latest data of Guangdong, the first largest province in the world's foreign trade, showed that the size of Guangdong's import and export, exports and imports remained the highest in the last 1-11 months of last year, but the growth rate was lower than the national growth rate of 5.8, 2.3 and 9.8 percentage points respectively. According to

In fact, since the beginning of 2011, there has been constant news about the difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta region.

"Small and medium-sized enterprises have encountered some new difficulties, including higher comprehensive cost and larger liquidity gap, and some enterprises are afraid of receiving orders.

At the same time, some industries also reflect that profits are declining or even losing money.

Zhang Wenxian, director of Guangdong SME Bureau, admitted that SMEs are facing severe pressure.

The survey report released by CICC recently on SMEs in Hangzhou and Shaoxing shows that "the current order situation of export oriented SMEs is similar to the most difficult four quarter of 2008, but the trend of orders declining has not yet bottomed out."

Shrinking

The shrinkage of orders is only one aspect of the difficulties faced by foreign trade enterprises.

At present, foreign trade faces the following multiple challenges: first, the decline in confidence caused by the debt crisis in the US and Europe, the slowdown in the economy and the direct demand for foreign demand; two, some enterprises can not be pferred or effectively digested and the cost is rising, and profits have dropped significantly; three, the protection of international trade has intensified, and some industries have been directly attacked; four, part of the order pfer and some enterprises have adjusted their products and market structure, and import and export in the short term are undergoing "pformation pains".

How to survive the winter of 2012?

"China's exports will have the lowest growth rate in 10 years in 2012."

Zhao Xiao, a professor at the school of economics and management of University of Science and Technology Beijing, said: "the growth in the past 10 years is not less than 9%, or even higher than 10%, but in 2012, it is certain that it will not reach 10% or even break 9%."

Li Xunlei, chief economist of Guotai Junan, thinks that the export oriented mode of China will be difficult to sustain. "In November last year, China's export growth rate had dropped to 13%. Considering the increase in export prices, the actual growth rate was close to zero." (micro-blog)

Economists' predictions are coming true.

According to statistics, nearly 90% of the world's Christmas gifts are produced in China. However, just over the past Christmas, foreign Christmas orders have decreased by about 20% compared with the previous years.

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' economic Blue Book 2012 pointed out that the development of China's external sector will not be particularly optimistic in the future for a long time. The contribution rate of net exports to China's economic growth may be greatly reduced. However, the situation of China's long-term dependence on imports and exports may be fundamentally reversed.

As winter approaches, spring is not far off.

"Although the growth of export trade will decline next year, many new competitive factors are being cultivated for China's manufacturing industry. For example, China's market size, industry matching capabilities and higher quality production line workers and RMB cross-border trade settlement bring new exchange market, which is the most fundamental reason why all foreign enterprises are unwilling to abandon China."

Pei Changhong, director of the Economic Research Institute of the Academy of Social Sciences, said.

Taking Dongguan as an example, the total volume of orders decreased in the first half of 2011, but the processing trade in situ pformation enterprises had three points, one sale was oriented towards the domestic market, which was very different from the initial domestic sales of the financial tsunami. This shows that the PRD enterprises gradually relied on the export market.

In addition, in recent years, with the rise of e-commerce, online shopping has become another way out for foreign trade enterprises.

In Taobao Mall (micro-blog) sales in November 11th last year, 3 billion 360 million of the sales volume, four of the export industry furniture industry entered the T O P100 merchant orders on that day, while Taobao's largest furniture brand Lin's wood industry has only been established for 5 years, and has achieved sales of over 100 million yuan.

High end dialogue

Former director of the Foreign Economic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission

Zhang Yansheng:

A trade war may break out in 2012.

"For China, there is a factor in the decline in global orders and the rising cost of enterprises, but it has not been fully reflected in the slowdown in China's exports.

Now, for the next three months, there are Christmas and new year's factors, so these two months will still be better, but if we look back later, the situation may worsen.

In an exclusive interview with reporters yesterday, Zhang Yansheng, former director of the Foreign Economic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, said that China's export industry will face more difficulties in 2012 than in 2011.

2012 will be more difficult. What are the considerations?

Zhang Yansheng: enterprises now encounter some problems, mainly in 4 aspects: first, weak external demand; two, cost increase; three, domestic trade and tight funds for trade production, and four, the appreciation of RMB has accelerated significantly.

Specifically, China's trade enterprises mainly have two types: Processing Trade and general trade.

Processing trade is dominated by foreign-funded enterprises. The system is more influenced by Europe and the United States from the current situation, and the other is general trade, mainly domestic enterprises.

For these enterprises, these internal factors are more influential in terms of cost increase and tight position.

However, enterprises have been trying to reduce costs, improve efficiency and update equipment. Therefore, enterprises still have relatively strong capabilities to digest these factors.

However, if these situations continue, there is a limit to the affordability of enterprises. When there is a limit, there will be a more obvious drop.

If costs continue to rise and external demand continues to deteriorate, domestic money will continue to shrink. When all kinds of factors superimpose and deteriorate, enterprises will have more serious difficulties.

The pformation and upgrading of domestic enterprises takes time and costs more.

Since the beginning of this year, the international trade frictions have been increasing. What will happen next year?

Zhang Yansheng: 2012 is very dangerous, there will be more trade friction, and trade friction will be very likely to turn into a trade war.

Including the recent "double reverse" survey of China's PV enterprises by the United States both means that the exchange rate risks and trade frictions last year and this year are very intense.

In May 2005 and June, the conflicts between China and Europe and the United States were obvious. Once the United States and Europe impose special safeguard sanctions on China's textile trade, they will cause huge trade losses to China.

Combined with these factors, foreign trade enterprises, whether in the domestic market or in emerging markets, are long-term adjustment processes, which are difficult to achieve in the short term, including the pformation of export structure through capital exports, the active opening up of emerging markets to diversify the export market, and the promotion of technological, managerial and market innovation to speed up the upgrading of enterprises.

Some foreign trade provinces are still inviting investment at any cost, but the new trend is hard to come by.

Personally, I think we should speed up the pformation of the growth mode of foreign trade according to the guiding ideology of "12th Five-Year", changing from the pursuit of speed and scale to the pursuit of efficiency and quality.

Micro commentary

Xia Bin, director of the Financial Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center

Many institutional investors predict that China's import and export G D P will be zero in 2011 and zero or even negative in 2012. That is to say, we should not face too much hope for exports, which we must face up to.

In short, the external environment of the Chinese economy is undergoing a profound and lasting structural adjustment in the global economy, otherwise it will not pass in the next year.

Zheng Jianrong, deputy director of Guangdong foreign trade and Economic Cooperation Department

Since 2011, the pformation of Guangdong's foreign trade has been accelerating and overall stable, but at the same time, the situation of foreign trade development is more complicated, facing the double pressure of external demand downturn and the comprehensive cost of enterprises.

At present, Guangdong's foreign trade enterprises need to actively explore new markets such as "three East and two South" (ASEAN, Eastern Europe, Middle East, South America, South Africa).

Zhao Xiao, Professor of economics and management, University of Science and Technology Beijing

In the past, we relied on external markets to survive. Guangdong has pioneered exports to drive the whole country, using the international market and external opportunities.

In today's economic situation, the external developed markets have collapsed. "We also want to drive the growth of China's economic single digit figure every year by the two digit export growth. This road is at the end of history.