What Are The Risks Of Transition In 2012?

In the future, exports and manufacturing in the past are due to the overall downstream demand. slow down 。 Textile and Garment Retailing will also usher in a big golden cycle, but this golden cycle is different from the golden period ahead. The next 20 years will be rapid growth of endogenous growth. Promote Mainly.

Quality companies, whether in terms of capability or early preparation, have potential to cope with the future transition period, and there is great possibility of success. The greater risk comes from valuations, on the one hand for other industries, and for Hong Kong stocks on the other.

From the investment point of view, the current stock selection standard of textile and garment retail is in the transition period, and endogenous growth research is right. Investment The study put forward a higher requirement. Because exogenous growth is relatively simple, endogenous growth requires more detailed information disclosure.

In 2012, the whole industry was in transition. The whole fundamentals can be divided into three categories. One is chemical fiber raw materials, the second category is export manufacturing, and the third category is the textile and garment retail sector which has been promising for many years in the market.

From these three plates, raw materials, in 2012, the price of chemical fiber and cotton should be a slight rebound in the bottom. Mainly because of the expansion of capacity on the one hand, on the other hand, at present, domestic and foreign demand is generally, especially domestic demand, although growth has been maintained, but the growth rate is slowing down. The impetus for the rally comes from losses in the industry. In terms of export manufacturing, exports are basically lying at the bottom. Because the economic reality of Europe and the United States is in front of us, another important factor is the transfer of low-end orders to India and Southeast Asia. This trend is faster and faster and irreversible. For the textile and apparel retail industry which has always been very promising in the market, I think there is still a strong desire for consumption in the first 5 months of last year. But there was a slowdown in growth in May. In June, we changed our view. I think in the middle term, that is to say, about a year or so, the growth of domestic textile and clothing should have a slow downward trend. This trend may end in the first half of 2012, but the specific time is hard to judge.

Integrating the three plates, the textile and garment industry is just beginning to be in a transition period. That is to say, the past twenty or thirty years have been a unilateral rising pattern. Especially for private enterprises, textile and clothing were the first to open in the past 30 years of reform and opening up. All enterprises operate at the core of expansion. But from the past two years, this foundation has begun to change.

For the future outlook, I think the golden period of export and manufacturing, including the golden period of the chemical fiber industry, is over. Because the important part of supporting manufacturing, the transfer of exports has begun and is irreversible. Although China is also in the Midwest, the fastest growth stage is over. Therefore, the past export and manufacturing period of the past is due to the slowing down of the overall downstream demand.

At the same time, textile and garment retail will also usher in a big golden cycle, but this golden cycle is different from the golden period ahead. The next 20 years will be a rapid growth of endogenous growth. That is to say, there will be more and more brands and distinctive enterprises. The growth rate of these enterprises may be slightly slower than that of the current rate of growth of 50%, but their sustainability is strong and customer loyalty is high. In the past, many investors complained that many of our brands are not as distinctive as those seen in Hongkong or Europe and America. I think this situation will gradually improve in the future. China will also have its own distinctive brand.

From the investment point of view, the current stock selection standard of textile and apparel retailing is in the transition period. The study of endogenous growth puts forward a higher demand for investment research. Because exogenous growth is relatively simple, endogenous growth requires more detailed information disclosure. Who can win in the transition period? This increases the difficulty of prediction. So at present, we adhere to the two principles, one is good quality, one is extension development, the other is endogenous, and there are endogenous industrial layout.

For export manufacturing, especially raw materials, there are two time windows. Chemical fiber plates, especially viscose and other plates, have not arrived at the worst time, and are still in the process of decline. Therefore, even if rebounded in 2012, we can only say that the rebound will not be too great. It should be about 10%~20%. From the point of view of export manufacturing, there are few manufacturing companies that really adhere to exports, and they are diversifying in recent years. Now the valuation is quite cheap. In the future, I think there will be more companies like the Yu Garden group in the long run for manufacturing companies, but in the first half of the year, the manufacturing industry is still a severe test. From the current point of view, inventory is still more difficult. In the first half of 2012, there will be a certain recovery at the bottom and in the second half of the year. In the transition period, it is not very clear, more or more needs to be observed. Overall, the defense of the entire textile and Garment Retailing is relatively strong.

From the perspective of investment risk, it is a relative valuation problem for retail industry. We still have strong confidence in the future growth. Quality companies, whether in terms of capability or early preparation, have potential to cope with the future transition period, and there is great possibility of success. The greater risk comes from valuations. On the one hand, it is for other industries. On the other hand, Hong Kong stocks and Hong Kong stocks have been continuously callback in recent years. The gap between A shares and H-shares in textile and garment retail is widening further. Valuation is the only risk in the industry. In general, it is also a defensive feature.