Worsening Global Economic Outlook, IMF Urged Joint Efforts To Deal With European Debt Shocks

Just as the world bank has sharply lowered the trend of global economic growth forecast in the next two years, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also pointed out that the continued escalation of the European debt crisis has become the main source of risk for the current global economic recovery. 24 countries should take measures and strengthen policies in line with their respective circumstances. coordinate To prevent further deterioration of the global economic growth prospects.

Deterioration of global economic growth prospects

The fund usually releases the world economic outlook report in the first half and the second half of the year in the spring and autumn sessions respectively, and updates the two reports in June and January respectively. In the updated world economic outlook update released on 24, the Organization predicted that the global economy will grow by 3.3% and 3.9% in the next two years, 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points lower than the previous forecast in September 2011.

The organization predicts that, as the biggest unstable factor in the current global economic recovery, the euro area will grow at a negative rate of 0.5% this year and 0.8% next year. Forecast The value dropped by 1.6 and 0.7 percentage points respectively.

IMF pointed out that the European debt crisis that has not yet stopped will impact international. Trade The development of the international capital market will lead to fluctuations in the international capital market, and both developed and developing countries will not be able to do their best. Among the developed economies, the economic growth rate in the next two years is expected to be 1.2% and 1.9% respectively, 0.7 and 0.5 percentage points lower than the previous forecast. The economy of the developing economies will increase by 5.4% and 5.9% in the next two years, respectively, 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points lower than the previous forecast.

The report stressed: "the escalation of the European debt crisis and the fragility of the financial market have become an important inducement for the deterioration of the global economic growth prospects."

　　 European debt crisis Spillover effect obvious

IMF President Lagarde (micro-blog), speaking at the German Foreign Policy Institute 23, said that in the current highly integrated global economy and capital market, the European debt crisis will cause an obvious cross-border spillover effect. At present, the global economic recovery is increasing uncertainty, the demand is shrinking, the willingness of banks to borrow will drop, and the capital inflows in emerging markets will decline. The growth of the most dynamic regions in the global economy is expected to slow down, and low-income countries are particularly vulnerable.

Compared with the world economic outlook in September last year, IMF emphasized the spillover effect of the European debt crisis this time. The report points out that the prospect of global economic growth is threatened by the European debt crisis, and the euro area will fall into a mild recession in 2012. The increase in the yield of government bonds, the deleveraging of banks and the process of fiscal consolidation will impact the real economy. The economic growth of developing economies will also slow down due to the deterioration of external economic environment and the weakening of internal demand.

According to the IMF, the growth rate of the world's largest developed and developing economies will slow down. The US economy will grow by 1.8% this year, the same as last September's forecast. Next year's growth will be 2.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous forecast. China's economy will grow by 8.2% and 8.8% respectively this year and next year, down 0.8 and 0.7 percentage points respectively from the previous forecast.

Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of IMF, said at a news conference organized by the 24, the European debt crisis is impacting the world economy through the export of important European trading partners. The global trade in goods and services can only grow by 3.8% and 5.4% respectively in the next two years, 2 percentage points and 1 percentage points lower than in September last year, the group estimates.

　 　 European debt Shock wave needs joint response

"2012 will be a year of healing," Lagarde said. She warned that if policymakers could not take concerted action, the world economy might spiral downward in the same way as in 30s.

Lagarde suggested that the euro area needs to respond to the crisis through strong economic growth, strengthening Europe's stability mechanism, and establishing eurozone bonds. The developed economies of the United States and other developed economies should promote economic growth by accelerating the recovery of the real estate market and resolutely handling public debt problems; China can help the global economic recovery through the spanformation of the growth mode; the IMF needs to build up a more powerful global "firewall" by raising the new loan resources of $500 billion.

Compared with a few months ago, the challenge of solving the European debt crisis and coping with fiscal consolidation and financial market risks has not been reduced, and the number of challenges has been gradually intertwined. Therefore, at the specific operational level, Blanchard and other experts stressed that the financial rectification of the developed countries should be moderate, and the medium-term fiscal consolidation should take account of the space for creating growth. The policy-makers should pay attention to raising the capital level of banks, thereby enhancing the scale of loanable funds and strengthening the spanfusion ability of the real economy.

Experts believe that there will be a pattern of market confidence and time race in 2012. On the key issues of increasing the fund's new loan resources and strengthening the "firepower" of the European stability mechanism, important decision makers on the international stage still need to bridge them as soon as possible.

Lagarde also stressed the confidence of the international community to overcome difficulties. She pointed out that despite great challenges, we all know what to do. Now policymakers in all countries should join forces to seize opportunities. Cooperation means that all countries work together to make a unified diagnosis of problems and solve problems together.