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Sluggish Demand &Nbsp; PTA Rebound Aborted

2012/2/20 13:51:00 16

PTA futures rebounded, but in the final analysis, the fundamentals of the rebound are not solid.

The adjustment of short-term PTA futures is likely to continue, while the central bank once again cut the reserve requirement ratio, which will reduce the market adjustment space.

PTA futures have fallen sharply in the past month.

The main 1205 contract broke through the 9000 point mark on the last trading day before the festival. After the promotion of spot inflation, the momentum continued to rise to the maximum of 9246 points, but then it appeared to be weak, and the volume fell.

PTA futures rebounded, but in the final analysis, the fundamentals of the rebound are not solid.

Crude oil remains strong, PX remains high

As a commodity weathervane, NYMEX crude oil futures, driven by geopolitical factors, are relatively independent, and have rebounded significantly in recent years. They continued to rise last Friday and hit the highest level since last May.

Closing quotation

Price.

The strength of crude oil has not covered the weakness of recent commodities, and most commodities represented by non-ferrous metals have entered the adjustment market.

PX, as a direct raw material for PTA production, is an important driving force for the rebound of PTA.

And according to the known production plan, this year, the new production capacity of PTA is far higher than the PX, the market's tight supply of PX is more intense, plus part of the equipment maintenance in Asia, PX prices rise steadily.

Since February, the spot price of PX has gradually risen to a high level of 1600 US dollars / ton. In February, the Asian PX contract price was finalized at 1590 US dollars / ton CFR, converted to PTA production cost above 9000 yuan / ton, and PTA production was at a loss.

However, due to poor profit margins, PTA factories are not very interested in high priced PX. Far East Petrochemical postponed the 1 million 400 thousand tonnes PTA plant originally planned for operation in March to May and June, and PX continued to rise.

PTA high operating rate

Despite the loss of PTA production, the start-up load of the PTA device is still on the high side. The main reason is that the PTA devices of the pre parking have been driven.

In terms of polyester, two sets of 400 thousand tons of polyester plant in Shaoxing began in February 16th.

Overhaul

After 20 days of planned maintenance, polyester load is reduced.

PTA, polyester and load changes of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms

Demand recovery is lagging behind, polyester stocks are on the high side.

After the Spring Festival holiday this year, the demand recovery in the terminal market is lagging behind in previous years, and the procurement cycle has not yet started.

It is understood that the reason for the slow recovery of the terminal, on the one hand is recruitment.

problem

On the other hand, the demand is sluggish, because the market demand in Europe and the United States continues to languish, and orders in the downstream textile factories are generally low.

Similarly, polyester terminal production and marketing rate is low due to terminal drag.

As the raw materials before the festival rose, the weaving enterprises were stocking more, and their orders were insufficient. Therefore, the main part of weaving enterprises was to digest inventory, and did not purchase large quantities of polyester.

And polyester enterprises operating rate is relatively high, resulting in a sharp rise in polyester stocks, reaching a high level in the past two years, polyester prices stagflation, selling prices become inevitable.

To sum up, from the perspective of industrial chain, the production of PTA

cost

It is still relatively high and has certain support for the price.

But the main reason for the weakening of PTA futures is that the downstream demand is poor. It may have to wait until the 3 - April traditional Spring Textile peak season. The current high inventory is gradually digesting, and the new procurement cycle will come.

Therefore, the short-term adjustment of PTA futures is likely to continue, and the central bank once again cut the reserve requirement ratio, which will reduce the market adjustment space.