Two Years Of Negative Interest Rate End &Nbsp; Experts How To Manage Money
Yesterday,
National Bureau of Statistics
The economic performance data for February were released. In February, CPI (the national consumer price level) rose 3.2% year-on-year, the first time it fell to below 4%, and hit a 20 month low.
As a result, the real interest rate of the residents has been negative for the first time after 24 months.
Negative interest rate means that the rate of price rise is faster than that of residents' one-year deposit interest rate, that is, the one-year fixed deposit rate is lower than that of CPI.
According to the central bank's data, China's one-year deposit rate is 3.5%, as the CPI rose from 3.5% in February to less than 3.5% in January, which means that the real interest rate has reached a positive value in one year.
China has experienced three negative interest rates for the first time in 2004, 2007 and 2010, with negative interest rates exceeding 20 months.
Northern Tianjin Netcom: analysts believe that if residents' real interest rates continue to be positive, it means that residents' bank deposits "win" inflation, to a certain extent, to achieve value preservation and appreciation.
In the past two years, although the central bank has raised the deposit interest rate for 6 consecutive times by 150 basis points, the residents' deposits have not been able to "win" CPI for some time.
In July last year, the CPI rose to 6.5% over the same period last year, a difference of 3 percentage points compared with the one year fixed deposit rate of 3.5%.
This means that if the public deposits the one hundred thousand yuan deposit for one year, the actual purchasing power will shrink by 3000 yuan.
The report believes that although the monthly CPI increase will not rule out the possibility of rising again in the future, taking into account the trend of steady price decline throughout the year, the real negative interest rate of our residents has been reversed in the past two years.
JP Morgan said: "inflation pressure is expected to ease further in the two quarter of this year. China's overall inflation rate will continue to decline to 2.5% to 3%.
This means that even if we consider possible factors such as imported inflation (such as abnormal oil price fluctuations) and rising labor costs, the central bank's goal of controlling inflation below 4% this year can still be achieved.
Reporter Xu Jia
"Negative interest rates" end expert advice how to manage money?
In "
Negative interest rate
"At the end of the situation, do we need to make corresponding changes in the current and future financial management of the public?
Conservative: Deposits shift to medium and long term
Sun Da, general manager of personal banking Wealth Management Department of Tianjin branch, said, "I personally believe that interest rates will be cut within one or two months, and the public should be advised to choose a medium and long-term financial management mode."
Sun Da said that in the current choice of medium and long-term financial management is to cut interest rates before the current relatively high interest rates "in hand".
"Today, the first and second savings bonds (Electronic) will be on sale this year, with the annual interest rate of 5.58% in 3 years and 6.15% in the 5 year period. The interest rates are 0.58 and 0.65 percentage points higher than the fixed term deposits of the same period.
This is the best choice for conservative investors at the moment. "
In addition to Treasury bonds, sun Da said that conservative investors can turn deposits into medium and long term. "Personally think that three years of regular savings is the best choice."
Risk type: investable bonds
Sun Da suggested something.
Risk bearing capacity
Investors may choose bonds or bond funds.
"Bonds are very sensitive to interest rates. Once interest rates are cut, the yields of bond funds will rise."
Sun Da also said that for those investors with strong risk tolerance, they could consider intervening in the capital market, for example, invest in some hybrid funds or partial equity funds. "After the monetary policy is loose, the supply of market funds will increase, and there will be more capital flowing into the stock market, which is expected to have a good performance."
Financial products revenue will decline
Huang Tongkai, product manager of the Wealth Management Office of the retail banking department of Tianjin branch, said that if the monetary policy turned loose and the market liquidity increased, the yield of financial products would decline.
Sun Da also said he preferred buying.
financial products
Members of the public can choose as long as possible financial products, such as one-year products.
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