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Global Upward Trend Is Not Sustainable &Nbsp; A Shares Are Volatile.

2012/3/19 12:43:00 12

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As announced last Friday

economic data

The three major indexes in the United States were narrowly arranged and closed. The Dow and Nasdaq fell by 0.15% and 0.04% respectively, while the S & P rose 0.11%, but they rose 2.40%, 2.24% and 2.43% in the whole week.

Looking at the world, except for the small callbacks such as Canada and India, the other major stock indexes rose to a trend of turbulence last week. The euro area as a whole has been quite strong (with an increase of more than 3%), and Russia and Germany also took pride in the increase of more than 4%. Many of them also hit a new high in the year.

Unlike the stock market, the international futures market continued to fall more or less last week.

Taking the US futures market as an example, although the US index has been tumbled and reversed the whole week's fluctuation, copper and grain varieties such as soybeans, corn and wheat have made remarkable achievements, but the CRB index and crude oil have not changed the fate of the reduction. The weekly decline of gold and silver is as high as 3.25% and 4.7% respectively.

Interestingly, the US fingers, crude oil and gold have been described as "sharing the same fate and fate" in the past two weeks. The phenomenon of rising and falling of the three stocks is very intriguing, and the duration is usually shorter. This means that they are likely to split up or rejoin the alliance, and the short-term direction of the rise and fall is also opposite to its strong weakening order.

The increase in volume also hit a new high in May, and the number of unemployed people at the beginning of last week dropped to the lowest level in four years. In March, the growth rate of New York's manufacturing index was the highest in June 2010. Despite the unexpected decline in Michigan's consumer confidence index, the budget deficit and the current account deficit remained high in the 4 quarter of last year. The policy expectation is also an important driving force for the uplink. FED reiterated that the ultra-low interest rate remained unchanged until the end of 2014, and decided to continue to implement the "twist operation", but did not imply that it would launch further quantitative easing policy. Bernanke also said that the speed of economic recovery was "slow and disappointing", and that the European debt problem was a smooth wave and a wave of waves, and that the road ahead of the stock market was doomed to be rugged. The US stock market has continued to rise, which has much to do with better economic data. For example, the growth of business inventories in January was the most in March and retail in February.

As far as market performance is concerned, Dow and S & P are now on 13000 points and 1400 points. This is also the first time since at least 45 months, that is, 5 and June 2008. The NASDAQ has been collecting for 11 weeks and returning to 3000 points after 135 months' absence. The strong appearance is most vivid, and the hope of new heights is still bigger. However, the risk of adjustment in the medium and short term is increasing. The best strategy to deal with the floating state is to keep a close eye on the trend line, that is, not to break 13030 points, 1378 points, 3000 points, and it can still be cautiously optimistic.

A shares slightly lower last week

After the opening, there was a wide range of concussion, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets eventually dropped by 1.42% and 0.53% respectively. The market operation has reached a more critical point at this time, and the volume and price relationship has become more noticeable.

The situation of less than one trillion yuan in 32 weeks and the average volume of 10 weeks in the year has exceeded 750 billion, which will have a very positive impact on the near future and even in the whole year. It is important that last week, three (about 327 billion 700 million) has created a single day after March 29th last year, and the average daily average of 229 billion 600 million last week is the highest level in the past 44 weeks, that is, last week after April 22nd. This shows that the enthusiasm for market participation has increased again, and the stock proverbs such as "quantity first" and "sky line is not the top" may also be tested again. In terms of quantity and energy distribution, total turnover increased by more than 20% compared with the previous week, and nearly 11480 billion yuan was terminated.

The trend has undergone a major and subtle change, that is, the two city composite index, Shanghai 180, and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 have all fallen below the trend line of the year. The short rally is likely to be constrained by the line, and the Shenzhen stock index has also punctured the line. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets quickly explored the 1/3 and 1/4 callbacks of the largest increase in the previous period, and the market showed signs of diffusion in the past 3 weeks, that is, the low point of Shanghai stock market moved down and the high point was distributed at 2475 points. Look at the operation of the market, rising

Simply speaking, it is completely swallowed up a large number of Yin lines, the amount can be significantly enlarged again.

In short,

Futures market board

It is still difficult to really break down, and the stock market in the US, Japan and Europe will also gradually calm down from too much excitement, which may also inhibit the short-term rise of A shares.

This week, the volume change is particularly critical. It is estimated that the weekly turnover will be reduced, and the daily turnover will be 300 billion. The market pressure is about 2450 points and 10500 points.