June 18, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20308 yuan / ton; 229 level 19423 yuan / ton; 328 level 18478 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17580 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9740 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15070 yuan / ton; C32S price 25670 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: Domestic

Spot prices continued to fall rapidly.

As for the growth of new cotton, most of the cotton growing areas in China have better light and temperature conditions and suitable soil moisture, which is conducive to the growth of cotton seedlings. Drought in some cotton regions of the the Yellow River River Basin, and the soil in the Jiangnan cotton area is too wet, which is slightly unfavorable to cotton growth.

3. imports of cotton: in June 15th, although ICE futures were stimulated by the surge in US cotton exports,

However, the main contract has not changed much, so the quotation of China's main port of import cotton remains stable.

It is understood that last week, China's expansion of the purchase of American cotton was mostly the behavior of a few state owned enterprises, which could not reflect the actual demand situation accurately, so it had little effect on the forward quotation.

4.ICE cotton: in June 15th, investors adjusted their positions before Greece's two general election. The ICE cotton futures contract went up all day, and cotton prices were higher than the average price of 20 days.

Judging from the market situation, as Greece's two general election will determine the prospects for the euro area, investors are cautious, but the Central Bank of the world is ready to provide liquidity, and the euro is supported.

In view of the fact that the early days of the cotton industry has been dropping a lot, the strength of the bottom and the air leveling is increasing. Under the stimulation of the rumor that the government has increased the purchase and storage, some of the profits have been evacuated for a single time.

But cotton demand remains weak, and there is no sign of improvement. Cotton prices remain high inside and outside, and domestic cotton prices are still at the top of global cotton prices, and the pressure is still small.

If the cotton textile industry itself does not have a large number of themes, cotton prices will still be weak and inertia, and the futures rebound space is limited.

There are more macro messages that need special attention recently. From Greek elections to the US QE3, it will probably constitute a systematic nature of commodities.

Influence.

If cotton stops at the 20 day moving average in recent days, it is not recommended that investors should be short.

Overnight, in June 15th, investors adjusted their positions before Greece's two general election. The ICE cotton futures contract was higher throughout the day, and cotton prices were higher than the average price of 20 days.

Judging from the market situation, as Greece's two general election will determine the prospects for the euro area, investors are cautious, but the Central Bank of the world is ready to provide liquidity, and the euro is supported.

In addition, the recent weakness in US data and whether the introduction of QE3 is also driving the market trend.

In the international market, in June 15th, although ICE futures were stimulated by the surge in US cotton exports in recent months, the main contract did not change much, so the quotation of China's main port of import cotton remained stable.

It is understood that last week, China's expansion of the purchase of American cotton was mostly the behavior of a few state owned enterprises, which could not reflect the actual demand situation accurately, so it had little effect on the forward quotation.

In addition, the lowest support price of the India government in the next year is expected to keep India cotton quotas strong.

The domestic market, 15 days, the continuous rise of cotton and other factors caused Zheng cotton to rise sharply for two consecutive days, driving domestic cotton spot prices to rise slightly.

Up to 7, the US cotton export weekly showed that buyers had higher enthusiasm for purchasing cotton in the market, especially China signed nearly 170 thousand tons of cotton in the United States within a week, raising the market's strong expectations for the recent cotton prices, which is conducive to slowing domestic market pressure. However, considering that the downstream demand is relatively weak and other factors have not changed, the domestic cotton spot prices are hard to rise in the short term. Recently, the trend of gauze market needs to be closely watched.

Spot quotation. In June 15th, the price of C/A cotton in the US was 89.35 (cents / pound), and the general trade port delivery price was 14956 yuan / ton (calculated according to the sliding tax). The price of Australia cotton was 94.60, the general trade port delivery price was 15778 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton quotation was 92.35, the general trade port delivery price was 15422 yuan / ton, the West African cotton price was 88.35, the general trade port delivery price 14791 tons.

The national cotton price A index was 19424 yuan / ton, up 1 yuan; the B index was 18479 yuan, up 1 yuan.

Market analysis, the recent macro situation is expected to gradually clear, so that the market has a little reverie, the outer disk rebounded to the 80 line.

On the basis of industry fundamentals, the US market is mainly due to the surge in export surges brought about by China's import price parity. Undoubtedly, import pressure will suppress domestic cotton prices.

However, the US cotton import can not only produce warehouse receipts, but also can not be used for storage. It can only be used for production, and is basically made by state-owned enterprises. It is indirectly stated that: 1, cotton prices are running at this point and gradually accepted by the consumer market 2, and policy orientation means that.

Therefore, even if the internal and external strengths and weaknesses are deviated from each other, the recent strengthening of the external market should attract enough attention.

[German futures] Greek election victory, Zheng cotton continued to rebound

Friday CF1301 high concussion, CF1301 closed more than 47.5 million hands, a slight decrease in positions.

CF1301 closed at 19280 yuan / ton, up 175 yuan / ton, reduced 746 hand; in June 15th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 83.50 cents / pound, up 0.12 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13479 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 13992 yuan / ton.

According to New York's June 15th news, cotton futures rose on Friday, mainly because investors adjusted their positions before Sunday's Greek election. If the result of the election led Greece to withdraw from the eurozone, it might cause turbulence in the financial market next week.

The ICE12 cotton contract rose 0.42 cents to 71.02 cents a pound.

In June 15th, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 13660 tons, a decrease of 620 tons compared with the previous day, an increase of 700 tons in orders and an aggregate purchase of 148280 tons.

15, the domestic match was also greatly boosted, and the average price of additional positions continued to rise.

Zheng cotton high shock on Friday, once recovered the gap above, but the impact of profit taking in the afternoon has not yet fully recovered the gap, the weekend Greek election results are very large, the recent macro face a big negative, the market opened up today, continue to observe the gap above whether to recover, if recovered to see up to 19700.

Today's operation suggests that light duty operation, interval operation, CF1301 reference price interval is 19000-19500.