How Will The Entangled Cotton Market Develop In The Near Future?

One week,

The market has surged and plummeted, while the domestic spot market has not changed much, and the turnover has been sluggish; the downstream textile market has been sluggish, the order is scarce, and the stock has increased.

Where will the market of the cotton market go next?

The author believes that the cotton price in the late stage lacks a rising base and the probability of maintaining a weaker oscillation is mainly due to the following reasons:

1, comparison of cotton price difference between inside and outside

It is not difficult to find out the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices. Under normal circumstances, the domestic cotton price of 80 cents / pound corresponds to 15600 yuan / ton, and the cotton price difference between home and abroad is 0-800 yuan / ton in the first few years, and the price difference has been over 3000 yuan / ton.

Judging from the general law of market economy, the gradual narrowing of the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices is a major trend. The main ways to return the price differentials are as follows: first, the external cotton is not rising and the national cotton is falling; this way is very frightening, which means that the price of Zheng Mian futures is far from the end, and the pressure of basic pressure leads to the possibility of such a situation being relatively large. The other is that the national cotton is not rising or rising, and cotton is catching up closely, but it needs the coordination of policy regulation and environment.

2, national policy guidance

Cotton as a strategic material, the state must safeguard the stability and development of the industry. The first source of protection is cotton farmers. When the cost of cotton planting and the cost of living increase, cotton prices will hardly fall.

China's small peasant economy can not compare with the American ranch economy.

Set at 20400 yuan / ton is based on China's national conditions, but if the market is not strong, after October, the country is likely to start buying and storing again.

3. Inventory and consumption

There is no need to say more about cotton inventory and consumption data. Look at Tianjin, Qingdao, Lianyungang, Zhangjiagang and so on.

It will be found that cotton is everywhere, and the storage capacity is very tight. With the reserves of about 4000000 tons, the stock is very sufficient.

At present, the operation of the domestic textile industry has not improved, and some textile factories are in a halt or semi shutdown state. Cotton consumption is in the traditional off-season, and cotton consumption is down compared with the same period last year.

Nevertheless, there are still many uncertainties in the weather during the cotton growing season and at home and abroad, which will affect cotton production and consumption.