August 22, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20294 yuan / ton; 229 level 19436 yuan / ton; 328 level 18524 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17617 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9730 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15050 yuan / ton; C32S price 25380 yuan / ton.

2. domestic spot: domestic cotton spot price runs smoothly.

Domestic cotton prices are affected by international factors and domestic downstream demand, and the recovery is not obvious. In addition, the downstream textile industry is facing a harsh industry shuffle. Structural adjustment has led to a sharp drop in demand for cotton in the textile industry. At present, cotton prices are mainly supported by purchasing and storage.

3. imported cotton: in August 21st, the price of China's main port of import cotton rose across the board, of which Brazil cotton rose 1 cents, and India cotton and American cotton rose 1.5-1.75 cents.

At present, the downstream market situation is still grim. The global economic downturn has led to inadequate export orders in textile mills. Even if the price advantage of cotton is obvious, the willingness of textile mills to replenish banks is not strong enough.

Although the market temporarily ignores these negative factors, it is believed that the risk of falling cotton prices will increase in the process of rising.

4.ICE cotton: in August 21st, as investors expected the European Central Bank to take new measures to solve the euro area debt problem, the euro rose, the dollar index fell sharply, and the commodity market generally rose.

Buying actively intervened in ICE cotton, and the improvement of Technical Graphics basically offset the negative impact of the basic market, and the contract rose 3% in December.

Summary:

The two major factors that affect domestic cotton prices are demand and policy. There is no substantial change in demand.

With the approaching of the new cotton year, the policy will become the primary factor affecting cotton prices in the short and medium term. Cotton enterprises expect cotton prices to come closer to the purchase and storage price. Under this expectation, there is limited space under zhengmian.

Yesterday, as investors expected that the European Central Bank will take new measures to solve the debt problem in the euro area, the euro rose and the US dollar index fell sharply, and most of the commodities, including cotton, rose.

[MEIKO futures] good effect of purchasing and storage gradually emerged in the trend of cotton futures

Overnight, in August 21st, as investors expected the European Central Bank to take new measures to solve the euro zone debt problem, the euro rose, the dollar index fell sharply, and the commodity market generally rose.

Buying actively intervened in ICE cotton, and the improvement of Technical Graphics basically offset the negative impact of the basic market, and the contract rose 3% in December.

At present, the market multi pattern is obvious, technical graphics support

Keep going, but fundamentals will limit the rise in cotton prices.

On the news side, the revival of domestic textile industry and the strong import demand of Chinese yarn made India's cotton yarn export increase in June in India.

In that month, India's cotton yarn output reached 282 thousand and 700 tons, approaching the highest level in a year and a half, an increase of 13.9% over the previous year, the biggest increase since 2010.

It is worth mentioning that the increase in cotton yarn output in June is higher than that in the textile industry.

Cotton blending ratio also began to increase, from 70.5% a year ago to 74.8% in June.

In the international market, in August 21st, the price of China's main port of import cotton rose across the board, of which Brazil cotton rose 1 cents, while India cotton and American cotton rose 1.5-1.75 cents.

At present, the downstream market situation is still grim. The global economic downturn has led to inadequate export orders in textile mills. Even if the price advantage of cotton is obvious, the willingness of textile mills to replenish banks is not strong enough.

Although the market temporarily ignores these negative factors, it is believed that the risk of falling cotton prices will increase in the process of rising.

Domestic market, 21, the domestic cotton spot price stable operation.

Domestic cotton prices are affected by international factors and domestic downstream demand, and the recovery is not obvious. In addition, the downstream textile industry is facing a harsh industry shuffle. Structural adjustment has led to a sharp drop in demand for cotton in the textile industry. At present, cotton prices are mainly supported by the purchase and storage expectations.

Spot quotation, August 21st, the US C/A cotton quotation is 90.60 (cents / pound), the discount general trade port delivery price is 15449 yuan / ton (calculated by sliding tax), Australia cotton 95.85, discount general trade port delivery price 16158 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 93.35, discount general trade port delivery price 15815 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 88.60, discount general trade port delivery price 15195 yuan / ton; India cotton 86.85, discount general trade port delivery price 14968 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index was 19442 yuan / ton, down 3 yuan; the B index was 18533 yuan, up 1 yuan.

Market analysis, the new year is close to the purchase and storage of officials, the state will receive 20400 unlimited storage, and the supply of high-grade cotton is becoming increasingly tense, cotton prices have been supported, the price is expected to gradually close to the purchase price.

The trend of US cotton futures is expected to boost the development of zhengpan.

CF1301 day line center of gravity gradually increased, the price again approaching the interval along the 19700, is expected to build a complex double bottom.

In operation,

Many continue to hold.