August 23, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20304 yuan / ton; 229 level 19453 yuan / ton; 328 level 18541 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17640 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 10250 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15830 yuan / ton; C32S price 25570 yuan / ton.

2. domestic spot: domestic cotton spot price runs smoothly.

Domestic cotton prices are affected by international factors and domestic downstream demand, and the recovery is not obvious. In addition, the downstream textile industry is facing a harsh industry shuffle. Structural adjustment has led to a sharp drop in demand for cotton in the textile industry. At present, cotton prices are mainly supported by purchasing and storage.

3. cotton imports: in August 22nd, the price of China's main port of imported cotton continued to rise, of which the US cotton and Australian cotton rose more than 2 cents, while India cotton rose 1.5 cents.

At present, the market is mainly centered around Lido subjects. On the one hand, the lack of rainfall in India and the anticipation of the new cotton reduction may trigger the government's adjustment to the cotton export policy. On the other hand, the recent increase in grain prices has made cotton prices rise.

In addition, China is about to start collecting and storing, and domestic cotton prices are also gradually closing to the reserve price.

4.ICE cotton: in August 22nd, ICE cotton recovered after a low walk and received a long shadow line, which failed to break through the day before yesterday.

Summary:

The two major factors that affect domestic cotton prices are demand and policy. There is no substantial change in demand.

With the approaching of the new cotton year, the policy will become the primary factor affecting cotton prices in the short and medium term. Cotton enterprises expect cotton prices to come closer to the purchase and storage price. Under this expectation, there is limited space under zhengmian.

I insist that the central line of Zheng cotton fall back gradually into many single ideas unchanged.

[MEIKO futures] stage climate is warm, Zheng cotton to be verified 19700 support

Overnight, ICE

Wednesday slipped from its three month high, due to sales pressure from cotton producers.

The government of India says that even if the rainfall is scarce in the rainy season, cotton cultivation is still advancing, which has prompted some investors to gain profits.

The lack of rainfall in India during the rainy season has worried the market that crop growth may be affected.

India is the second largest cotton producer in the world.

The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) index month December cotton fell 0.42 cents to 76.97 cents.

On the news side, the data provided by India Cotton Advisory Committee (CAB) show that since the beginning of 2000/01, the cotton end inventory in India has generally maintained cotton consumption for one to two months in the country, and has never exceeded 1 million tons, while the US Department of agriculture (USDA) forecasts the end of the cotton inventory in India far higher than the CAB data, averaging at least one fold, so that the highest time (2008/09) has reached 7 months of cotton consumption in India.

In the international market, in August 22nd, the price of China's main port of imported cotton continued to rise, of which the US cotton and Australia cotton rose more than 2 cents, while India cotton rose 1.5 cents.

At present, the market is mainly centered around Lido subjects. On the one hand, the lack of rainfall in India and the anticipation of the new cotton reduction may trigger the government's adjustment to the cotton export policy. On the other hand, the recent increase in grain prices has made cotton prices rise.

In addition, China is about to start collecting and storing, and domestic cotton prices are also gradually closing to the reserve price.

When the negative factors such as weak consumer demand are temporarily ignored, the upward trend of the quotations from outside cotton is expected to be maintained.

Domestic market, 22, by the domestic cotton futures prices rose in recent days, domestic cotton spot prices rose slightly.

Domestic cotton purchase and storage brings a glimmer of dawn to cotton market, so that the cotton market that has failed to catch up can get a breather. But the slight rebound in the cotton market is still difficult to change the sadness of cotton market. Only when consumption is warmed, can the upstream raw materials form a favorable support.

Spot quotation, August 22nd, the US C/A cotton quotation is 92.85 (cents / pound), the discount general trade port delivery price is 15748 yuan / ton (calculated by sliding tax), Australia cotton 98.35, discount general trade port delivery price 16509 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 94.85, discount general trade port delivery price 16020 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 90.10, discount general trade port delivery price 15384 yuan / ton; India cotton 88.35, discount general trade port delivery price 15158 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index was 19453 yuan / ton, up 11 yuan; the B index was 18541 yuan, up 8 yuan.

Market analysis, the new year is close to the purchase and storage of the official, the state will be 20400 unlimited storage, and the supply of high-grade cotton is becoming increasingly tense, cotton prices to be supported, the price is expected to gradually close to the purchase price.

US Center of gravity moved upward, Zheng cotton breakthrough area along the 19700, today's attention to effectiveness, standing firm will continue to shock upward.

On the operation, we should consider the profit stopping part and keep a small quantity of them.

{page_break}

[Wanda futures] more single profit closed to cotton prices fall

Overnight, the price of international soybean and corn dropped under the pressure of more than a single profit, and the government of India indicated that the cotton industry in the country had resisted the effect of insufficient rainfall in the rainy season. The cotton planting situation was good, which led to the sale of cotton in the ICE period. The price of soybean fell down to 74.9 cents / pound in the plate, and some of the lost land was recovered in the late afternoon. The main contract in December was down 0.33 cents to 76.97 cents / pound. The callback kinetic energy basically released, and the rising trend did not change. For example, cotton price could stand for 77.07 days per day for three consecutive days.

Tuesday ICE cotton fell slightly, but the main contract in December is still stable and far from the short-term average, short-term average line continues to rise in a row, KD and MACD indicators continue to rise in a row, MACD index red column growth, the rally will continue, December if the contract can stand 77.07 cents / pound, the next target will be 84 cents / pound line.

With the coming of the new year, China will implement the 20400 yuan / ton open and unlimited purchase and storage policy.

On the other hand, the quota in the market is basically exhausted, the domestic spot resources are tightening up, and the price of cotton and cotton yarn is on the rise. This has become the main driving force for the recent rise in cotton prices.

However, thanks to the economic recession in the euro area, global textile and clothing consumption has not recovered. China's cotton price is much higher than the international cotton price. The high cost of Chinese products leads to its lack of competitiveness in the international market, and exports and consumption continue to shrink. At the same time, the market is rumored again that the relevant departments are discussing the issue of dumping and storage. In September, the probability of purchasing and storing and throwing away the storage is very large at the same time, which has restricted the popularity of many people and is the main reason for the decline of Zheng cotton to the high level.

For now,

Will continue to rebound pattern, the 1301 contract has 20400 yuan / ton storage price close to the trend, but the lack of consumption, capital and popularity support, not too optimistic about the rise, a small number of holdings, continue to pay attention to the 1301 contract 19700 yuan / ton pressure level on Thursday.