Good Luck In The First Half Of This Year

[ Wedding bird (002154) summary of Research Report

Performance growth is in line with expectations

The company announced the 2012 semi annual report: the total business revenue, operating profit, total profit and net profit of the company were 916 million yuan, 154 million yuan, 158 million yuan and 125 million yuan, respectively, up 25.02%, 40.39%, 39.15% and 35.8% respectively. Basic earnings per share of 0.21 yuan, in line with expectations. At the same time, the company released the 1-9 month performance forecast in 2012: the net profit growth of shareholders belonging to listed companies is expected to increase by 25%-45%.

Terminal consumption was weak, and the growth of single quarter revenue slowed sharply in the two quarter.

Quarterly, 12Q1, Q2 revenue grew by 57.75%, -5.0%, down sharply. Reasons: 1) Q1 has early delivery; 2) terminal sales market is sluggish, terminal retail growth slows down; 3) Q2 abnormal weather such as torrential rain and low temperature in May and June affect terminal sales; 4) multi brand and multi platform operation is still running in period. By the end of June 30, 2012, the number of news bird websites was 851 (compared with 30 at the beginning of the year), and the number of 222 outlets was 222. According to sub brands, the brand of good bird has increased steadily. The bird group buying business has recovered significantly, achieving a net profit of 14 million 173 thousand yuan in the first half of the year. It is expected that the net profit of the whole year will revert to the level of 23 million yuan in 2009. Fashion leisure In the market downturn, San Jack's development is below expectations, closing 25 retail outlets. Other brands: 2 million 295 thousand yuan and 2 million 291 thousand yuan respectively, Diri and metier respectively earned 3 million 90 thousand yuan and 1 million 200 thousand yuan respectively. The main brands of the birds are mainly contributing to their achievements.

Gross margin is still the main driving force.

The high value-added route will enhance brand reputation. In the first half of the year, advertising investment was 44 million 550 thousand yuan, accounting for about 4.9% of revenue, and the estimated annual advertising budget was about 150 million yuan. We expect that in the first half of the year, the price increase of the main brand of the wedding birds is still around 20%, and the increase in profit is 6.51 percentage points to 60.26%. The rate of expenditure increased by 1.93 percentage points to 38.12%, and the rate of financial expenses rose by 1.14 percentage points. Accounts receivable increased intensity, operating cash flow amount of 99 million yuan, the first 5 quarters since the correction.

Profit forecast and investment rating

To maintain the company's 2012-2014 years EPS to 0.85 yuan, 1.06 yuan, 1.31 yuan, our profit forecast contains the hypothesis that the company passed the review of high-tech enterprises in 2012. At present, the stock price corresponds to 2012-2014 years PE times 13.25/10.61/8.60 times, and maintains the buying rating.

Risk warning

1, the slowdown in economic growth affects the terminal consumer market. Stock Increased risk; 2, platform based multi brand operation does not meet the anticipated risks.