"Appreciation" Speeds Up The Shoe Industry'S Long-Term Orders.

The trade surplus in March was warmer, but the surplus in the first quarter decreased compared with the same period last year.

On the 11 day, the General Administration of Customs issued the import and export data in March: the total import and export volume in March was 204 billion 519 million US dollars, up 27.8% over the same period last year, of which 108 billion 963 million US dollars were exported, an increase of 30.6% over the same period last year; the total value of imports was 95 billion 556 million US dollars, up 24.6% over the same period last year; the trade surplus in the first quarter of this year decreased by 10.9% compared with the sharp decline in the favorable balance in February.

Although the import and export volume rebounded sharply in March, industry experts did not analyze the optimism of the export situation.

Sun Heng Cun, a macroeconomic analyst at CITIC Securities, thinks that export growth has rebounded in March, because export growth in March last year is relatively low.

From the data of the trade surplus in the first quarter of this year, it has declined compared with the first quarter of last year, and the overall foreign trade situation is not very good.

With the April 10th central parity of RMB against the US dollar breaking "7", it not only makes people feel the urgent situation of pressing export, but also squeezing the survival space of all "extroverted" enterprises in China.

The growth rate of surplus will also fall. Data show that exports increased by 30.6% in March, and for the first time in six months, the growth rate exceeded imports.

The export volume of textiles and clothing was 11 billion 827 million US dollars, up 44.13% from the same period last year.

In response, Li Mingliang, senior macroeconomic analyst at Haitong Securities, said that the export growth rebounded faster than expected in March, indicating that the impact of snow disaster on foreign trade was more severe in February. However, judging from the current situation, China's export situation to the United States is still not very good, and we need to be vigilant.

During the two sessions this year, Chen Deming, Minister of Commerce, once said that China's import and export trade will fluctuate before and after the Spring Festival every year, and it will return to normal after March.

In February, the trade surplus plunged to $8 billion 555 million in the past month, due to a slowdown in export growth and a surge in imports.

The trade surplus declined 10.9% in the first quarter of this year, due to a sharp decline in the February surplus.

In fact, the slowdown in trade surplus began in the second half of last year.

As monthly export growth slowed down and import growth accelerated, the cumulative trade surplus grew rapidly from 69.4% at the end of the third quarter to 47.7% at the end of the year, down 21.7 percentage points.

Since the beginning of this year, the accelerated appreciation of the renminbi, the increase in manufacturing costs and the slowing down of the world economy have aggravated the signs of export slowdown, especially the processing trade.

In the 1-2 month of this year, as the largest province of textile and clothing exports in China, the export volume of textiles and clothing to Guangdong in the United States has declined sharply. The first two months of the year dropped by 27.9% and 41.9% respectively.

Mei Xin Yu, a Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, still insists on the judgement made by our newspaper reporter: "the trade surplus will continue to expand, but the growth rate has dropped."

Next week, the 103rd China Import and Export Fair will open in Guangzhou.

As China's foreign trade vane, the "Canton Fair" has made Chinese exporters living in dire straits look forward to it.

"After the Canton Fair, we will reformulate our export plan."

Chen Tai West, vice president of Wenzhou shoe industry, told reporters 11 days ago.

Chen Zhexi told reporters that the cost of the increase, the appreciation of the renminbi and other factors, the current enterprise orders have been greatly reduced.

"We simply don't dare to take long-term orders, because no one knows how much the exchange rate will go up, and then we will lose money."

Chen Zhexi's words were filled with helplessness.

On the 10 day, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar announced by the China foreign exchange trading center was 6.9920, breaking through the 7 pass in one fell swoop, and the RMB exchange rate officially entered the "6" era.

Since the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in July 21, 2005, the appreciation of RMB against the US dollar has reached 13.8%.

As fast as the exchange rate, there are many heartbeat of exporters.

Fan Min, chief analyst of China's first textile network, told reporters that the profit of shoe companies dropped by 1 percentage points as the appreciation of RMB increased by 1 percentage points. The profit margin of textile and garment industry will drop by 2 percentage points.

Up to now, the exchange rate has appreciated more than 13%, and the profits of enterprises are getting thinner and thinner.

Wang Qian, deputy editor in chief of the first textile network, also said that in 2008, the price of textile exports could not keep up with the speed of RMB appreciation.

Many foreign trade enterprises have expected the current appreciation rate, and accordingly make corresponding adjustments in the quotation.

Chen Zhexi told reporters that at present, most shoe enterprises in Wenzhou have adopted the way of long-term settlement.

"We estimate that the exchange rate will be at least 6.8 this year. Now the quotations for new customers and new products have been adjusted according to this standard," Chen Zhexi said. "Now only the expected exchange rate is appropriately increased, but the old customers' contracts can not be changed, and the appreciation rate can be increased faster, and only the right loss can be borne."