September 12, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan futures USDA Report

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20499 yuan / ton; 229 level 19628 yuan / ton; 328 level 18752 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17914 yuan / ton. Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 10390 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15780 yuan / ton; C32S price 25630 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: on the 11 day, the spot price of domestic cotton tends to be stable. At present, the picking quantity of cotton seeds in main cotton producing areas in China is beginning to increase. However, in some parts of Shandong and Hebei, the picking time is slightly delayed. The market for seed cotton purchase is rather chaotic, and the price gap between purchase and sale is very large. The acquisition of processing plants is mainly carried out around the storage and transportation. It is worried that the standard of storage and storage is stricter and the seed cotton has a higher moisture regain, so the acquisition is more cautious.

3. cotton imports: in September 11th, the price of imported cotton fell generally, of which India cotton fell 1.25 cents, while other varieties fell by about 0.5 cents. Judging from the market situation, yarn prices in some parts of the region are rising quietly, but the pattern of overall consumption is hard to bring support to the market. Even if the price of foreign cotton has dropped, the quota of textile mills will not restrict the quantity of foreign cotton purchase, and the national cotton store will continue to be a major market transaction.

4. cotton throwing and storage: in September 11th, the actual turnover of cotton reserves was 16167.02 tons, with a turnover rate of 35.76%. The weighted average transaction price is 18454 yuan / ton, and the 328 grade cotton price is 18646 yuan / ton (public weight), which is 108 yuan / ton lower than the national cotton price B index (CNCotton B) 18754 yuan / ton.

5. cotton purchase and storage: in September 11th, second days for cotton temporary storage and storage in 2012, the China cotton reserve management company plans to store and store 2012 tons of cotton in 50000 tons, and there was no deal on that day.

6.ICE cotton: in September 11th, as the market was more optimistic about the Federal Reserve's economic stimulus policy, the US dollar index fell sharply, and the commodity market was generally strong. However, the close down of ICE cotton futures is mainly due to the market's concern over the oversupply of cotton resources, which has led to more sales than buying.

Summary:

At the same time, the price is different. The dumping and storage actually reflect the cotton prices in circulation in Chinese society. After the purchase and storage starts, the cotton resources will flow to the national reserve. But before the global demand for cotton has obviously improved, the three tier structure of cotton prices will not change. The circulation price of cotton in China will close to 20400 of the purchase and storage price. However, closing up is far from being able to achieve. Operation continues on the basis of the 20 day average line to buy more ideas. Recently, the United States cotton has little influence on Zheng cotton.

[GF futures] the market is waiting for the Fed and the US agricultural report.

[market performance]

The US Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton fell for second consecutive days, with a low turnover and cautious trading. The market was waiting for the US Department of agriculture's supply and demand report and the US Federal Reserve (FED) policy decision. In December cotton CTZ2 fell 0.7 cents, at 74.93 cents per pound, with a trading interval of 76.28-74.85 cents.

Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange cotton 1301 closing price of 19585 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton; the daily turnover is 64148 hands; the position is reduced, and the daily turnover is reduced from 514 to 243428.

[spot market]

Cotton spot quotation maintained a slight rebound, and the deal was dull. The national cotton index is two yuan cotton, 19400 yuan, and the three grade cotton price is 18636 yuan / ton, up 1 yuan / ton;

[industry news]

In September 10th, the number of cotton reserves put into operation was 45105.22 tons, and the actual turnover was 21830.77 tons, with a turnover ratio of 48.40%, which was 2628.45 tons lower than that of the previous trading day.

[operation suggestion]

Overnight cotton is waiting for the Fed's statement and the US agricultural report as a whole. Below 19500 support, fell below 19300 stops. In addition, although the purchase and storage began, but most of the good has been digested by the market ahead of time, and so on this week, after the QE message on the outside is settled, we can begin to pay attention to the reversal opportunity.

[MEIKO futures] cash flow pressure, cotton walking hard

Overnight, in September 11th, as the market was more optimistic about the Fed's economic stimulus policy, the US dollar index fell sharply, and the commodity market was generally strong. However, ICE cotton Futures closed below, mainly because the market was worried about the oversupply of cotton resources, which led to more sales than buying. USDA's upcoming monthly report will clarify the direction of the market.

News: 1, September 11th for the 2012 cotton temporary purchase and storage work started second days, China cotton reserve management company plans to store 2012 tons of cotton 50000 tons, no deal on that day. On the 2 and 11 th, the Central Cotton store plans to register for sale and store 45207.40 tons of cotton reserves. The actual turnover is 16167.02 tons, with a turnover rate of 35.76%. The 328 grade cotton price is 18646 yuan / ton, down 9 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, which is 108 yuan / ton lower than that of CNCotton B on that day. As of 11 days, the total volume of dumping and storage was 182 thousand and 900 tons, with a turnover rate of 60.62%. {page_break}

International market, in September 11th, the price of imported cotton generally fell, of which India cotton fell 1.25 cents, and other varieties fell about 0.5 cents. Judging from the market situation, yarn prices in some parts of the region are rising quietly, but the pattern of overall consumption is hard to bring support to the market. Even if the price of foreign cotton has dropped, the quota of textile mills will not restrict the quantity of foreign cotton purchase, and the national cotton store will continue to be a major market transaction.

Domestic market, 11 days, domestic cotton spot prices tend to be stable. At present, domestic cotton picking area of main cotton producing areas has begun to increase, but parts of Shandong and Hebei are affected by rainy weather, picking time has been slightly delayed. The market for seed cotton purchase is rather chaotic, and the price gap between purchase and sale is very large. The acquisition of processing plants is mainly carried out around the storage and transportation. It is worried that the standard of storage and storage is stricter and the seed cotton has a higher moisture regain, so the acquisition is more cautious.

Spot quotation, September 11th, the US C/A cotton 91.60 (cents / pound), discount general trade port delivery price 15561 yuan / ton (according to sliding tax calculation); Australia cotton 96.85, discount general trade port delivery price 16275 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 91.85, fold the renminbi trade port delivery price 15594 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 88.85, discount general trade port delivery price 15204 yuan / ton; India cotton 86.85, discount general trade port delivery price 14950 yuan / ton. CNCotton A 19628 yuan / ton; CNCottonB 18754 yuan / ton.

Market analysis, with the arrival of the peak season of textile industry, domestic sales of high count yarn have improved slightly, but the spot price of lint is still at a high level. Due to the fact that there has been no transaction yet, the lifting role has not been reflected. In addition, the international political and economic situation in September is unstable, and market caution brings some pressure to the disk. Zheng cotton will repeatedly test the pressure level.

On the operation, Zheng cotton is more cautious.

[Wanda futures]USDA monthly report, US cotton fell below 75 cents support

Investors are waiting for the Ministry of agriculture's supply and demand report to be released on Wednesday night. At the same time, the Fed will announce its policy decision on Thursday, and the market looks forward to the new economic stimulus measures of the Federal Reserve. Before these two questions are not clear, the ICE cotton will continue to fall, and the contract will fall 0.7 cents to 74.93 cents / pound in December, and 75 cents / pound will fall behind. It is expected that USDA will continue to cut down global consumption and raise the final inventory, which may lead to the continuation of the downtrend in the cotton trade.

Tuesday ICE cotton Xiao Yin closed, the main contract in December closed in the short-term average and 75 cents / pound support position, although the medium and short term average line system maintained a good rise in the ranking, but KD and MACD indicators to form a downward alignment of the MACD index, MACD index green pillar growth, the market weakened, the decline will continue, if December contract three days in a row of 75 cents / pound, the downtrend will continue.

Tuesday plan Throw store 45207 tons, but the actual turnover was only 16167 tons. The average price of the transaction was only 18454 yuan / ton, indicating that the demand for textile enterprises in the lower reaches was in the doldrums. Dumping and import could lead to the fact that Chinese enterprises basically did not purchase cotton in the next 3 months, and spot cotton prices would remain at 18600 yuan / ton line, and become the main bad factor in the market. As of September 10th, the government has begun to store and store the new cotton in the price of 20400 yuan / ton, and the price of the purchase and storage will reach 1800 yuan / ton, and the new cotton will not be able to enter the market. Inevitably, the market will be diverting from the market. The market will be running around the price of throwing and storing. The purchase of 20400 yuan / ton will become the highest price in the world, while Zheng cotton will run between the two parties. Considering that the 1301 contract will bear the pressure of inventory, the contract will be weaker than the 1305 contract. It is suggested to maintain the idea of trading in the area.