October 11, 2012 Xingye Futures: Domestic Cotton Quotes Have Risen

[international spot]

In October 11th, the price of China's main port of imported cotton rose slightly, or 0.20-0.30 cents, while India cotton rose 1 cents.

Recently, although the international cotton price stabilizes near 70 cents, global supply and demand may still be more relaxed, and the risk of late price fall is still very large.

The purchase of foreign cotton is mainly based on wait-and-see. It is difficult to enlarge the volume of imported cotton before the internal and external spreads can guarantee full duty import.

[International Futures]

In October 11th, the price of cotton in the ICE period was low, setting the largest single day decline in three weeks. After third consecutive months, the US Department of agriculture (USDA) raised its final inventory estimate for global cotton (19435, -55.00, -0.28%) in 2012/13 to a record high.

ICE12 month cotton settlement price reported 70.71 cents / pound, down 1.39 cents on the day, or 2%.

The latest figures from the US Department of agriculture have raised concerns about the slowdown in China's cotton demand in the world's largest textile market.

Despite the decline in cotton consumption, the data imply that output in the US, China and India will rise.

Intra day is the largest single day percentage decline in cotton futures contracts for ICE12 months since September 21st, and the market also touched 10 trading days low 70.41 cents.

[domestic stock]

In October 11th, domestic cotton quotas rose, and the national cotton price A index (CNCotton A) representing the 229 class cotton prices in the mainland was 19642 yuan / ton, up 1 yuan compared with October 10th; and the national cotton price B representing the 328 grade cotton price in the mainland.

(CNCotton B) was 18783 yuan / ton, up 1 yuan compared with October 10th.

[domestic futures]

In October 11th, Zheng Mianping opened the oscillation and continued to consolidate near the closing price yesterday. The afternoon oscillation declines and fell below the 5 day average line support. Most of the contracts fell more than 100 yuan, and the market pactions and positions increased.

Among them, CF1211 contract average price 19155 yuan, fell 35 yuan; CF1301 contract average price 19490 yuan, fell 60 yuan; CF1305 contract average price 19395 yuan, fell 65 yuan; the market total turnover 79560 hands, compared with the previous trading day reduces 12814 hands, accumulative total holds 351376 hands, increases 11370 hands.

[cotton information]

Henan Xinye: cotton farmers wait-and-see sentiment is strong, cotton enterprises acquisition difficulty.

Recently, the purchase price of seed cotton in Xinye County of Henan province has risen slightly, and the seed cotton purchase price of 4 grade real estate has been priced at 4.15 yuan / Jin, which is 0.05 yuan / kg higher than before the festival, but the cotton farmers are still reluctant to sell the mentality. With the increase of farm work, the overall purchase and sale progress is slow, the daily turnover is about 10 tons, and the purchase volume from the other provinces has been enlarged. In Hubei and Hunan, the bid price of 4.20 yuan / Jin has risen 0.1 yuan / kg, and the daily turnover is about 150 tons.

In addition, the price of local cottonseed is down, and the price is about 1.08 yuan / kg. Cotton processing is processed by cotton enterprises to reduce the risk of operation.

India: textile mill demand increases, domestic cotton price stabilizes.

According to foreign news in October 9th, the new year's cotton market and domestic demand will make India's domestic cotton prices stable this week.

Cotton Traders in Gujarat State have revealed that although India's new cotton is on the market and its export demand is weak, the raw material inventory of India textile mill is very low and its inventory has started to replenish, so domestic cotton prices will be supported.

Since mid September, with the beginning of India's new cotton harvest, India's domestic cotton price has dropped four weeks.

At the same time, India's export volume in India will be reduced by more than half this year by about 1 million 190 thousand tons, due to the significant weakening of China's import demand.

It is understood that India's "ten wins Festival" and "Diwali festival" will be driven in November.

Consumption, therefore, the procurement of textile mills began to increase.

According to India cotton association data, in October 9th, the price of domestic S-6 in India rose to 33100 rupees / candle, about 80.4 cents / pound.

[market review]

On the 11 day, Zheng cotton fell, trading volume increased and holdings increased.

1301 the contract is under great pressure in the 19600 area.

If the period price breaks 60 day moving average, there is still room for reduction in technology.

Operation is still dominated by band operation.