Fourth Quarter Clothing Consumption Situation Will Be Better Than The Three Quarter.

The first three quarters of this year

Performance continued to decline, the 79 listed companies realized a total operating income of 135 billion 356 million yuan, an increase of 4.62% over the same period last year, a decrease of 17.6 percentage points over the same period last year, and a net profit of 8 billion 968 million yuan, down 16.32% over the same period last year, a sharp decrease of 54.04 percentage points over the same period last year.

However, from the point of view of the sub sectors, while the textile industry continues to slide, apparel home textiles are still growing, but the growth rate has slowed sharply.

From the specific performance of the company, under the background of weak domestic and foreign consumption and slow growth of the whole industry, some of the companies with good operation and sustainable growth can still maintain good performance growth, such as the Bank of China (000982), cunndi Road (002656), search for special (002503) and Pathfinder (300005).

From the first three quarters of this year, exports and domestic sales data, we expect that the industry's turning point still needs to wait.

In September, the export volume of textile and clothing was 25 billion 126 million US dollars, up 9.33% from the same period last year, the highest value since April this year, a 12.68 percentage point increase from last month.

Although the export situation has picked up in September, exports are still facing severe tests under the influence of weak external demand, expanding domestic and foreign cotton spreads, weakening manpower cost advantages and RMB appreciation. The real recovery of demand still needs long-term observation.

According to the statistics of the clothing sales of the 100 major national retail enterprises in China, the first three quarters

An increase of 11.2% over the first half of last year, a decrease of 0.54 percentage points from the first half of this year, a decrease of 10.8 percentage points over the same period last year, and an increase of 1.7% in apparel retail sales, representing a 5.06 percentage point decrease over the same period last year.

Last year, textile and garment enterprises achieved better business performance through raising prices. This year, under the influence of economic slowdown, consumer confidence index decline and price increase crowding out effect, consumer demand is weak and volume increase does not replace price rise as the driving force for industry growth.

At present, some brand clothing companies concluded the spring and summer order meeting in 2013. Affected by weak demand and inventory pressure, the franchisees' orders were relatively cautious. The order growth rate slowed down compared with the same period last year, and the order of high growth companies continued to grow rapidly.

In the spring and summer 2013, the growth rate of the outdoor products industry is expected to be 50.5%. The growth rate of the fashion casual wear industry is expected to be 35%-40%. The two companies belong to the high growth companies, and the order situation is relatively good.

It is worth noting that the growth rate of orders for men's clothing industry is slightly lower than market expectations. Among them, the growth rate of card slave road is estimated to be around 26%, and that of bird lovers (002154) is estimated to be around 15%, and that of seven wolves (002029) is expected to be 10%~15%, while that of nine Mu Wang (601566) is expected to increase by a single digit.

Obviously, the slowdown in the 2013 spring and summer ordering conference made the market worry about the first half of 2013.

Two tier market, affected by poor industry data, three quarterly results and orders, the textile and garment sector has undergone major adjustments recently.

At present, the overall valuation of the industry is 18 times, at a low historical level.

However, with the arrival of the cold season and the holiday season, the consumption situation in the fourth quarter will be better than that in the three quarter.

There are certain opportunities for valuation repair.

We suggest that investors should pay close attention to stocks that are sound in operation, good in performance and sustainable in growth, and be alert to the risk of adjustment of strong stocks and subject shares.