November 9, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan futures] the full import tariff to buy imported cotton has become the mainstream.

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20520 yuan / ton; 229 level 19645 yuan / ton; 328 level 18791 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17969 yuan / ton.

domestic

Product: polyester staple fiber 10450 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 14310 yuan / ton; C32S price 25750 yuan / ton.

2. the domestic market: the role of the domestic stock market in the collection and storage measures will help stabilize the price of the domestic cotton spot market. However, the domestic and foreign cotton prices remain high, and China's exports are rising, but the growth rate is still not optimistic. In November, the new cotton market in the United States and India will be listed on a large scale. The huge price difference may cause the textile enterprises to import cheap international cotton.

3. imported cotton: at present, the textile factory pays the full import tariff to purchase imported cotton gradually becoming the mainstream. Therefore, the low price imported cotton continues to be favored by the textile mill, and the bonded cotton inventory is obviously reduced.

However, because China's import policy is facing greater uncertainty, it limits market pactions to a certain extent.

4. seed cotton acquisition: in the past week (November 2nd -11 8), rain and snow weather in northern China has brought about an impact on cotton sales and processing. Due to slippery roads and slippery walking, cotton farmers who have been selling to cotton enterprises have significantly decreased, and cotton purchasing volume has decreased significantly.

The price of cottonseed in the the Yellow River River Basin fell slightly, dragging the price of the seed cotton, the stalemate between the two sides, the limited market paction, the stable price of the seed cotton in the Yangtze River and the inland areas of the Yangtze River, and the more active trading of the cotton farmers, and the steady progress of the sale progress.

5.ICE cotton: in November 8th, ICE futures trading was active and volume increased to more than 5 hands.

The March contract, which replaced the December contract as the main force, rose sharply after the opening of the contract. However, the subsequent decline led to a drop in the price of cotton, which led to more selling. Finally, the March contract reached a new low of 3 months.

Summary:

Textile mills pay the full import tariff to buy imported cotton gradually become the mainstream, so low price imported cotton continues to be favored by textile mills, but the market expects USDA supply and demand report to continue to be bad, so confidence in the market outlook is obviously insufficient.

Judging from the structure of Zheng cotton futures, when the price of zhengmian is higher than the cotton price of social circulation, the enterprises that buy cotton do not have the power to choose futures purchase channel.

This determines that futures prices lose the buying power from spot enterprises.

During the period of storage and purchase, we insist that the "cotton prices in China will run steadily for a long time". We must pay close attention to the policy of purchasing and storing in operation, and focus on the idea of doing more bargain.

[MEIKO futures] purchase and storage to bring support to the spot, support for Zheng cotton to be strong and weak

Overnight, the ICE futures trading activity was active and the volume increased to more than 5 hands.

The March contract, which replaced the December contract as the main force, rose sharply after the opening of the contract. However, the subsequent decline led to a drop in the price of cotton, which led to more selling. Finally, the March contract reached a new low of 3 months.

The market has not given too much attention to the signing of the US cotton contract. The market expects the USDA supply and demand report to be bad.

international

In November 8th, the price of China's main cotton imports generally declined, and most varieties fell 0.25 cents, while Brazil cotton continued to rise slightly.

At present, the textile factory pays the full import tariff to purchase imported cotton gradually becoming the mainstream. Therefore, the low price imported cotton continues to be favored by the textile mill, and the bonded cotton inventory has obviously decreased.

However, because China's import policy is facing greater uncertainty, it limits market pactions to a certain extent.

Overall, the fundamentals of the market remain empty. The pressure on the new cotton market in the northern hemisphere is still rising, and there is still room for further decline in the price of cotton.

The domestic market, 8, the domestic cotton spot price is difficult to get out of the steady trend of the market, and the total volume of the total storage and purchase resulted in the reduction of the number of medium and high grade cotton on the market, which will also have a strong supporting role for cotton prices, and it is estimated that the long-term cotton price or the volatility will be strong.

In November 8th, the national cotton temporary storage and storage business reached 52890 tons. As of that date, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage pactions totaled 2181320 tons in 2012, including 659200 tons in the mainland and 1522120 in Xinjiang.

Spot quotation, November 8th, the US C/A cotton 86.60 (cents / pound), discount general trade port delivery price 14738 yuan / ton (according to sliding tax calculation); Australia cotton 92.10, discount general trade port delivery price 15422 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 89.60, fold the renminbi trade port delivery price 15106 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 83.60, discount general trade port delivery price 14382 yuan / ton; India cotton 82.60, discount general trade port delivery price 14266 yuan / ton.

CNCotton A 19659 yuan / ton, up 3 yuan; CNCotton 18805 yuan, up 4 yuan.

Market analysis, the current collection and storage work continues to provide support for the market, the cumulative turnover has exceeded 2 million 180 thousand tons, with the entry and storage of high-grade cotton, the cotton price trend in the later period depends mainly on consumption and imports of cotton, and cotton prices will return to the industry demand steadily.

ICE cotton has a downward trend of signs, Zheng cotton fluctuated in the 19000-20000 interval, the 01 contract shock axis selection direction, 05 contract attention below 18950 support, if the drop can be a small test.

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On the operation, 01 wait-and-see, 05 contract 18950, if a drop can be a small test.

[German futures] wait for supply and demand report Zheng cotton biased air turbulence

Thursday's CF1305 sideways turbulence, CF1305 closed more than 4.5 million hands, a small increase in positions.

CF1305 closed at 19125 yuan / ton, down 15 yuan / ton, increased 1842 positions; in November 8th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 83.43 cents / pound, fell 0.32 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13431 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14413 yuan / ton.

According to New York's November 8th news, US cotton futures hit a new low since July, as index funds continued to expand their positions in recent months, and investors sold off before the US Department of agriculture's monthly crop report was released. The market expects the report to show low demand and increased supply.

ICE12 cotton contract settlement price fell 0.81%, at 69.26 cents per pound.

In November 8th, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 12720 tons, an increase of 340 tons over the previous paction, an order reduction of 680 tons and a total purchase of 57480 tons.

On the 8 day, the opening of the contracts was different.

Basically, the new cotton market in India and the United States has been listed on a large scale, and the pressure of market supply is further enhanced. The huge price difference between domestic and foreign cotton continues to inhibit China's exports and consumption. At the same time, the uncertainty of the import policy of the new year makes buyers wait and see more strongly, and the purchase interest is only limited to the recent demand.

On Thursday, Zheng cotton sideways shook, technical indicators became necrotic. Tonight's USDA supply and demand report released temporary temporary clearance.

Today's operation suggests that the CF1305 reference price range is 19000-19300.

Wanda futures] worried about the economy after the US election, cotton prices fell again due to lack of financial support.

With the end of the US presidential election, the focus of the market has shifted to the federal government's "fiscal cliff". Investors are worried that the current US President Obama will be reelected, and the funds will be withdrawn from the high-risk financial and commodity markets. At the same time, the exchange rate will continue to pressure cotton prices. The overnight contract in March has fallen 0.73 cents to 70.34 cents / pound, the lowest 70.02 cents / pound in the market, and cotton prices have begun to challenge the strong support position of 70 cents / pound.

At present, there is no sign of improvement in consumption, and the pressure of supply and Exhibition pressure will continue to suppress cotton prices. The downtrend may continue, with a strong support of 70 cents per pound in March.

On Thursday, ICE cotton mid Yin closed, the main contract in March stood firm 70 cents / pound, but far from the short-term average line suppression, the medium and short term average line system maintained a drop in alignment, KD and MACD index continued to fall short, the MACD index green column began to grow, the downward trend did not change, March contract will challenge 70 cents / pound strong support position, if this support falls, the downward goal to 67 cents / pound line.

As of November 8th, 83.51% of the total cotton had been imported into the country, including 77.68% of Xinjiang's public inspection cotton and 2 million 182 thousand tons of total reserves, 7 times the same period of last year. A large number of new cotton storage and port stocks were relatively scarce, resulting in a tight trend of domestic spot resources. The 1301 contract therefore maintained a strong pattern.

But this month, India and the United States will be listed on the new cotton market. The pressure of supply is obvious. At the same time, the domestic and foreign cotton prices remain high, and China's exports and consumption continue to shrink.

It will maintain long-term weakness and decline with the US cotton, continue to hold empty list, and pay close attention to the strong support position of the 1305 contract 19000 yuan / ton.