Textile And Apparel Industry Today Recommends 5 Shares, Valuations Are Not High, Export Rebound Deserves Attention.

Basic data points: low base and discounted sales to stimulate key retail enterprises in October

Retail growth is picking up.

Micro data show that garment retail sales growth rebounded in October. Among them, the retail sales of 100 key enterprises increased by 14.2% over the same period last year, up 3.6 percentage points from the previous month, and the retail sales increased by 2.4% over the same period last year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month; in addition, the gold and silver jewelry in October,

Cap retail sales also rebounded from last month, but the number of needle textiles decreased.

From the data of the whole industry, the growth rate of garment industry and leather shoes manufacturing industry in the first three quarters declined slightly compared with the first half of the year, but the manufacturing industry of bedding increased slightly. The export growth rate rebounded significantly in October, but the sustainability still needs to be observed.

A share companies: listed companies are relatively dull in October, but the "double eleven" online sales are generally good.

Pathfinder: the average retail sales of key franchisees increased by 40% in October, and the two or three line terminal retail sales increased by 60%; the card sales: the sales in October basically maintained at 20-30% growth; seven wolves: direct sales in October were only one digit growth.

But in the first two weeks of November

Sales were better, straight battalion grew by about 20%; in October, overall sales were better than last year, and sales caliber statistics achieved 130 million yuan; fuanna: because eleven long holidays and the next month, the order meeting will be reduced, the delivery time will be reduced, the sales in October will be basically the same as that in the same period last year, but the growth of the direct sales system will be about 15%. In October, 2 orders will increase by more than 30%.

Hong Kong stocks and overseas companies: Anta and PEAK 2013Q2 orders both recorded a double-digit percentage decline, and 2012Q3 growth performance was not ideal; gold short contract losses and slowdown in retail sales led to a decline in net profit in the medium term of Zhou Dafu; BELLE and Daphne "double eleven" e-commerce sales have been excellent.

After selling UMBRO, Nike sold the Cole Haan brand again to focus on the core sub brand; in the first three quarters of Adidas, the revenue of the Greater China region increased by 16% to 1 billion 170 million euros, the 12% quarter grew 12% in the third quarter, 6% in the same quarter in the third GAP quarter, and the improvement in the chain; the sales in the third quarter of the same quarter were flat, and the ring ratio slightly slowed down; the high-end e-commerce vip.com first appeared in the third quarter of this year (non US accounting standards).

Trend review: in the first half of November, the valuation of clothing and home textile plates declined significantly under the impact of the three quarterly growth quality and online shopping sales boom. The A shares increased mainly in the early days of larger stocks, such as rolls, Semir, and so on.

The biggest increase in H-share was mainly in Si Jie, Zhou Shengsheng, Baozi, and so on. The main ones were PEAK, Bosideng, Li Lang, Daphne and so on.

Investment strategy: the quality of the growth of the three quarterly reports is not satisfactory, and in November, the impact of the hot sales of electricity providers and so on, the market's doubts about the growth mode of the industry have increased, resulting in further decline in the valuation of the plate.

Fourth quarter base is relatively low, so it is expected that the possibility of further deterioration of retail growth is small, and from the valuation point of view, generally not high, but there is little catalyst in the near future, and the doubt of the industry growth mode is magnified in the context of the downturn of the economic downturn, and it is expected that the trend of the industry in the short term will still be mainly followed by the market.

Six months' perspective, considering the factors such as valuation and half year operation, choose the next year's growth rate which will be faster in the industry and manage relatively basic varieties.

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