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Analysis Of The Strange Phenomenon Of Double High Inventories And Imports Of Cotton In China

2012/12/4 10:27:00 22

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this year, China's "a href=" http://www.91se91.com > cotton < /a > has seen strange phenomena of double inventories and imports. According to the data released by the Ministry of agriculture, from 1 to October, China imported 4 million 520 thousand tons of cotton, an increase of 90.3% over the same period last year. The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) released the global production and demand forecast that in 2011 to 2012, 90% of global cotton inventories grew from China, and China's cotton stocks reached 6 million tons, 3 times the previous year, and China's reserve cotton stocks surged to about 4000000 tons from 300 thousand tons. For two consecutive years, the price difference between domestic cotton and imported cotton price in China is over 5000 yuan / ton, and the inhibition of domestic cotton high inventory on cotton prices can not disappear in the short term. Because of the decline in cotton planting efficiency, the enthusiasm of cotton growers is decreasing, which further aggravate the complexity of the cotton market. 
 the main causes of the fluctuation of cotton market in China at present: first, the cost of cotton planting is rising. In recent years, prices of important agricultural means of production, such as seed, plastic film, pesticide, water and fertilizer, have risen, especially the rise of labor cost. The cost of cotton production in China has been rising. The cost of hand picking cotton in southern Xinjiang has exceeded 2300 yuan per mu. The increase of cost leads to the reduction of profit margins for cotton planting, and the economic benefits of cotton growers are greatly reduced. More and more cotton farmers quit cotton planting because of the high cost of production, and the other crops with better economic efficiency and more stable market directly cause the fluctuation of cotton production. 
 Second, the decline of cotton quality leads to a decline in competitiveness. In recent years, the quality of cotton in China has been decreasing gradually. According to the data of China Fiber Inspection Bureau, the proportion of cotton from 1 to 3 has dropped from 87.21% in 2007 to 32.02% in 2011, and the proportion has dropped to 55.19%. The important reason is that cotton growers pay too much attention to linen percentage and yield while choosing cotton varieties, and neglect the indexes such as moisture regain and impurity content that affect cotton quality. The state is difficult to supervise the control of varieties. Due to the decentralization of the cotton variety approval authority, many new varieties approved by the certification bodies at various levels each year. As of 2011, there were more than 1300 cotton varieties in China, and nearly 400 varieties were identified. Because of the decline of cotton quality, cotton spinning enterprises tend to use < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > Import > /a > cotton from quality and price, and national storage has become the main destination of domestic cotton. 
 Third, the current dual track circulation system in China's cotton circulation market is also an important factor affecting the fluctuation of China's cotton market. Since the reform of China's cotton circulation system in 1999, China's cotton market has been marketization. Under the premise of free competition, the cotton circulation system with planned and market co-existence has emerged through the State Reserve regulating market. This kind of market structure has not only enlivened the market, but also caused disorderly competition, excess production capacity and low cotton quality in China's cotton circulation market. 
 Fourth, the impact of international cotton on China's cotton market. The price of cotton in the United States is lower than the cost of cotton production in China, resulting in the lack of competitiveness of cotton in China. At the same time, South Asia relies on its cheap labor to produce low-cost cotton. Therefore, domestic cotton enterprises are more willing to buy low-priced imported cotton. 
 then, how to stabilize our cotton planting area and reduce the fluctuation of cotton market? First, we must standardize our cotton circulation market, improve the access threshold of cotton circulation enterprises, and eliminate small workshop type enterprises, so that large enterprises can compete in the field of management, technology, credit and brand, and form a stable cotton production value chain. We should vigorously improve the development of the cotton futures market and bring into play the role of risk management in the futures market. Two, we should pay attention to the nature of subsidized cotton purchase and storage system, rather than simply make it a redistribution system of interests in the cotton value chain. When formulating the purchase and storage price, the first thing is to link the purchase and storage price with the international market cotton futures price, China's cotton production cost, < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile < /a > export expectation. At the same time, the national reserve should pay attention to cotton prices in the international market when selling cotton. Three, we should vigorously promote the mechanized harvesting of cotton and reduce the cost of cotton production. It is suggested that more efforts should be made to increase the R & D and popularization of cotton harvested cotton varieties, increase the subsidy amount for cotton pickers and auxiliary machinery, expand the categories and scope of subsidies, and increase financial support for all aspects of machine picked cotton. The four is to increase the supervision system to ensure the quality of cotton. We should increase the supervision over the cotton seed market, strictly examine and approve new varieties, change the breeding guidance that only emphasizes the linen percentage and yield, encourage the cultivation and popularization of machine picked cotton varieties, increase the access threshold of the industry, and change the situation of cotton variety. It is necessary to reform the existing cotton quality testing index system and grading system, ensure high quality and high price, and guide farmers to take the initiative to pay attention to the quality of cotton. In order to establish quality inspection standards for machine cotton production, the current practice is to use the standard of hand picking cotton to determine the grade of machine picked cotton, which is not conducive to the development of machine picked cotton. We should tighten up the standard and standard of cotton picking and cotton production, which will play a positive role in guiding the selection of raw materials and the use of cotton.