Cotton Market Analysis: Cotton Market In 2012 Is Seriously Upside Down.

If 2011 cotton The price wave is characterized by "thrilling". The cotton market in 2012 can only be summed up by "serious upside down". At the early stage of cotton harvest, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton has reached about 5000 yuan per ton, and the price difference expanded by 67% over the beginning of the year.

The upside down of cotton prices at home and abroad is not new, but the price difference has never been so great.

Cotton prices at home and abroad reached a new high

From the end of 2011 to March 2012, the price of domestic standard cotton has been stable at 19300~19600 yuan / ton. With the increase of planting costs, the state will further raise the price of the national reserve and further boost domestic cotton prices in order to protect farmers' planting benefits.

Internationally, however, market demand Inadequate and bumper expected impact, the international market cotton prices continued to decline, and the price difference with domestic cotton further widened.

According to statistics of China Textile Industry Federation, 9~12 months in 2011, the average at home and abroad Cotton price The difference is 2410 yuan per ton; by 2012, the average cotton price difference between home and abroad increased to 3638 yuan per ton; from the end of August to the beginning of September, the domestic cotton price was 18520 yuan / ton, while the foreign cotton price was increased by 1% after the tariff and value added tax, the price was 13060 yuan / ton, and the price difference was 5460 yuan / ton. The price difference was 1~3 yuan per ton. Compared with previous years, cotton price difference at home and abroad has reached a record high in 2012.

The high price of cotton in China has seriously weakened the international competitiveness of China's cotton textiles. Data show that the export of cotton products in China is negative, including cotton yarn, cotton fabric, cotton bedding and cotton garments.

The policy of temporary purchase and storage needs to be improved.

China began implementing the temporary cotton purchase and storage policy in 2011, and seized about 3100000 tons of cotton at the price of 19 thousand and 800 yuan per ton, accounting for 43.5% of the actual cotton output of 7 million 200 thousand tons in that year. In 2012, the purchase and storage price of cotton reached 20400 yuan / ton, 600 yuan more than that in 2011, and the corresponding reference price for seed cotton purchase is about 4.2~4.35 yuan per catty, which is about 0.1 yuan higher than last year's purchase price.

The 2012 year is the second year implementation of the policy of temporary purchase and storage of cotton. According to the national development and Reform Commission, the purpose of this policy is to normalize the measures of temporarily collecting and storing lint in the main producing areas, to release the reserve price ahead of time and to open up and store the stocks after the new cotton is listed. The cotton stored in the market can be put in time when the market needs, so as to stabilize the market expectations of cotton producers, operators and cotton enterprises, protect the interests of cotton farmers and ensure market supply.

However, domestic cotton prices are high and the quota of imported cotton is limited. In order to survive, many domestic enterprises have begun to import cotton yarn in large quantities, and the price of imported cotton yarn is even cheaper than domestic cotton. This will undoubtedly lead to a more chaotic market and a far cry from the original intention of stabilizing domestic cotton production.

Insiders say that the long and serious hang up of cotton prices at home and abroad will eventually jeopardize the interests of cotton farmers: "it is proposed to adjust our cotton purchase and storage policy and make direct subsidies to cotton farmers to ensure the enthusiasm of cotton growing."

Cotton farmers are not optimistic about cotton planting.

Cotton production is also faced with rising labor costs, low mechanization level, poor comparative benefits and shrinking production. In 2012, the sowing area of cotton decreased. According to the latest survey by the Ministry of agriculture, the cotton planting area in 2012 was about 72 million 550 thousand mu, a decrease of 3 million 10 thousand mu compared with that of the previous year, with a decrease of 4%.

In October 9, 2012, the national development and Reform Commission said that the actual output of cotton in China in 2012 is expected to decline 4.2% from last year to 6 million 900 thousand tons, down 300 thousand tons over the previous year.

Shandong is one of the main cotton producing areas in China. According to local media reports, the cotton area in Shandong in 2013 is probably down by more than 10% over the 2012 year, of which Dezhou has dropped by about 20%, while Heze and Jining have dropped by about 10%, and Dongying and Binzhou are basically flat.

Han Fuhong, a cotton grower, said that the cost of an artificial land is 1400 yuan, and that is two hundred or three hundred yuan. It also saves labor and labor, wheat one thousand jin, corn one thousand jin, (earn) more than 2000 yuan. In addition to weather reasons, the increase in agricultural costs and labor costs also "nibbled" cotton farmers' modest profits.

Zheng cotton first suppressed and wide range shocks.

After the new year's day in 2012, Zheng cotton price staged a tail market, reached a high point in early February, and the main contract reached 22700 points in 1301. Surprisingly, this has also set the annual high point, and since then it has declined. Dive to 18400 at the end of May. After half a year, it continued to oscillate between 18400 and 19900, and continued to maintain a weak pattern.

At present, the market expects that the state will throw away the store after the new year's Day holiday. Once it is established, the cotton market will be greatly suppressed. At present, the only good thing is that less cotton on the market and prone to phased supply may boost cotton prices in the short term.

Hongyuan futures analysis and forecast, on the one hand, in the long run, the demand for the market after the storage period is still weak, and the enterprises that buy cotton do not have the power to choose the futures purchase channel, which determines the futures price does not continue to rise. On the other hand, in the short term, the recent rumors of dumping and storage are becoming more and more serious, which is not conducive to the strengthening of Zheng cotton. Generally speaking, Zheng cotton will not get rid of the concussion in the near future.