Hidden Dangers Behind China'S Economic Rebound

< p > the fourth quarter of last year, the rebound of a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as" > China's economy < /a > temporarily alleviated the worries about the hard landing of China's economy.

< /p >

< p > but the Gini coefficient, which is rarely published by Statistics Bureau, shows that China's income gap is relatively large, and the first signs of shrinking of the working age population have highlighted the major challenges facing China's new generation of leaders in maintaining sustained and rapid economic growth.

< /p >

China's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 7.9% over the fourth quarter of last year, up from 7.4% in the third quarter of last year, ending the seven quarter slowdown in, P.

The rebound in economic growth eased the concerns of the outside world about the possible spiral of decline in China's economy.

China is the second largest economy in the world, and the continued weakness of China's economy may exacerbate the sluggish global economy.

< /p >

The acceleration of economic growth in the fourth quarter of P also made the market full of longing for China's economy in 2013.

Gao Luyi (Royal Bank of Scotland), a Chinese economist, has raised his forecast for China's economic growth from 8% to 8.4% this year, including strong investment in real estate and infrastructure construction, which has increased to 8.4%.

< /p >

< p > but considering China's total economic output and its increasing maturity, it seems unlikely that China's economy will recover to its two digit growth rate in the past year.

China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 7.8% in 2012, far below 9.3% in 2011, the lowest level since 1999.

Ma Jiantang, director of the National Bureau of statistics, said that China's economy will bid farewell to the era of ultra-high speed growth.

< /p >

Ma Jiantang P told reporters last Friday that the Gini coefficient of China was 0.47 in 2012.

According to the data released by the Census Bureau, the Gini coefficient of the United States in 2011 was 0.48, which means that China's income gap is at the same level as that of the United States.

< /p >

< p > a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > Gini coefficient < /a > is an index used to measure the difference of income distribution.

The Gene coefficient is the value between 0-1. When the Gene coefficient is 1, it shows that income distribution is absolutely unequal, while 0 shows that income is completely equal.

< /p >

< p > measuring the income of Chinese residents is a big challenge.

Some scholars estimate that the Gini coefficient is much higher than that published by the Statistics Bureau.

According to a survey conducted by Professor Gan Li, Professor of economics at Texas A&M University, China's Gini coefficient was 0.61 in 2010, ranking internationally with African and South American countries.

< /p >

< p > the savings rate of the affluent population is higher than that of the low income group, which is because the latter can earn less savings.

This means that the widening gap between the rich and the poor is not conducive to stimulating consumption. Some economists believe that consumption is crucial to the sustained growth of China's economy.

According to the survey of Gan pear, 10% of the people with the highest income in China earn 60% of their income, accounting for 74% of the total savings.

< /p >

< p > Ma Jiantang also stressed the reduction of the working age population.

Data show that China's working age population decreased by 3 million 500 thousand to 937 million in 2012.

This is a turning point in the growth of China's total labor force from a growth to a decline. The growth of labour force over the past ten years has been an important driving force for China's economic growth.

< /p >

P, Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, said that the public's dissatisfaction with the widening gap between the rich and the poor, the fragile financial system and the reduction of labor force mean that China can hardly avoid future frustrations.

< /p >

< p > data also show that China has made some progress in changing its economic growth pattern and relying on investment and exports to rely more on consumer spending.

Residents' income growth exceeds the overall GDP growth rate, indicating that economic growth has benefited the residents.

< /p >

< p > Zhu Xinan, general manager of Guangzhou Hui Mei Pc Limited, said the company's business is getting better and better.

He said that in 2012, people had little interest in buying computers, but sales began to increase substantially in November, and he recruited more employees for this purpose.

He said that people's purse was bulging, so they began to pursue enjoyment.

< /p >

< p > overseas enterprises are also betting on China's consumption demand.

French retailer a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > Carrefour /a Carrefour (Carrefour SA, CRRFY, CA.FR) plans to open 18 supermarkets in China this year to maintain its growth rate last year.

Thierry Garnier, the chief executive of Carrefour China, said the company is confident of the Chinese market because the Chinese government has set up domestic consumption as one of the top priorities.

< /p >

Li Keqiang, who is the premier of China's State Council in March, has been promoting China's urbanization and urbanization as a driving force for further economic growth. P

Nearly half of China's population lives in rural areas. The pfer of rural population to cities will increase their participation in the labor market, help increase household income and expand consumption.

< /p >

< p > optimistic people say Li Keqiang is suggesting that China will carry out extensive reforms in China, including land reform and increasing social welfare expenditure for migrant workers.

These two points are the focus of the recent government statement.

These two reforms will increase the cost of enterprises in various economic fields, and will damage the competitiveness, but help to stimulate domestic demand.

< /p >

Huang Yuchuan, former representative of the P World Bank, said that a large-scale urbanization will pform China into a trade deficit country. Such a huge change must be carefully promoted, otherwise it may lead to a stagnation in a developing country.

< /p >

< p > but in order to change the mode of economic growth and reduce the continuous reliance on credit and investment, it is necessary to carry out extensive reforms.

Last year, in response to the slowdown in economic growth, the Chinese government produced a moderate stimulus plan.

The total amount of bond issued by the local government in 2012 was 636 billion 800 million yuan ($102 billion), which rose by 148% compared with 2011, and the trust company's loans to infrastructure construction also increased significantly.

< /p >

< p > but this plan is still far less than the massive stimulus plan launched by the Chinese government after the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008.

But both depend on the leverage of credit and government investment projects.

This has raised concerns about the rising debt levels and irrational distribution of capital and waste, and much of the debt comes from shadow banks.

< /p >