March 18Th Morning Focus Of Textile And Chemical Industry

Macro focus

According to Dow Jones reports, the euro zone has agreed on Cyprus rescue, and Cyprus will receive 10 billion euros. In the rescue agreement, IMF will expand the funds available to Cyprus. Cyprus will also impose a 6.75% tax on deposits less than 100 thousand euros and impose a 9.9% tax on deposits exceeding 100 thousand euros.

In March, Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan's consumer confidence index was 71.8, with a forecast value of 78 and a value of 77.6. Readings in March were the lowest level since December 2011. The United States in February CPI month rate +0.7%, expected +0.5%, the former value is flat. In February, the monthly output of industrial output was +0.7%, and the expected value of +0.4% was revised from -0.1% to flat.

Premier Li Keqiang, speaking at a press conference after the end of the two sessions, said that sustained development of the economy is the first policy objective, followed by efforts to increase the income of urban and rural residents, especially low-income earners, and continue to expand the middle-income group, and is determined to cut more than 1/3 of the administrative examination and approval.

Cotton: the market is expected to be favorable, and Zheng cotton is mainly in the short term.

Overnight ICE cotton low rise and high to take up the long shadow line, the main contract in May rose 1.64 cents to 92.50 cents / pound, the technology graphics look at the rising price pattern is expected to continue. Zhengmian 1309 contract closed on Friday and closed at 20370 points, up 65 points from the previous trading day. The top twenty bulls reduced their positions from 542 to 47355 and 3291 to 64998. Trading volume increased slightly compared with the previous day, indicating that the price increase momentum is strong, MACD index red column extended, KD index downward divergence, technology graphics view period price is strong, but at the same time, the pressure is higher. Cotton warehouse receipt information: cotton warehouse receipts totaled 134 (of which 39 were Xinjiang cotton), 4 less than the previous day. 30 effective forecasts. Fundamentals: domestic cotton CC Index 328 price index: 19359 yuan / ton (+3), imported cotton FC Index M price index: 98.92 cents / pound (+1.90), 1% tariff 15832 yuan / ton, discount sliding quasi tax to 16389 yuan / ton, and cotton price difference to -2970 yuan / ton.

Market rumors that 700 thousand tons of processing quotas will be issued in China and imported cotton will be ready to cash in to boost ICE phase cotton according to 3:1 cotton reserves, subject to ICE period. Cotton price The price of imported cotton continues to rise. Although China's port stocks are on the high side, the sale of high-grade cotton is relatively good, and is constrained by the fact that the policy message has not yet been implemented, and the procurement of textile enterprises is still cautious. Due to the fact that there are less circulation resources in the spot market, if the later rumours can be fulfilled, it will stimulate the enthusiasm of the textile enterprises to purchase, the proportion of the cotton reserve transaction will also be increased, and the expected reduction in production on the eve of planting is expected. The domestic cotton futures market is expected to continue to be strong in the short term.

recently Reserve cotton The number of delivery was 70152.837 tons, and the actual turnover was 18845.9405 tons, with a turnover ratio of 26.86%, which increased by 2.08% compared with the previous trading day. The average daily turnover reserve cotton was 3.54, which was 0.05 higher than the previous transaction day; the average length was 28.41, higher than that of the previous transaction by 0.03; the weighted transaction price was 18973 yuan / ton, up by 28 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, and the 328 grade transaction price was RMB yuan / ton (common weight), falling to RMB yuan / ton, which was lower than the CC Index price of that day. As of March 15th, the total amount of the total listing was 2656765.1967 tons, with a total turnover of 768620.8944 tons, with a turnover ratio of 28.93%. 2012 cotton Temporary storage and storage totaled 6384540 tons, and Xinjiang totaled 2539440 tons. The total turnover in the mainland was 2118150 tons, and the total number of backbone enterprises totaled 1726950 tons. Operation suggestion: CF1309 is mainly short-term short selling, and the price breaks through 20000 yuan / ton.

PTA: rising prices will boost industries, and TA should not be overlooked in the short term.

Overnight, the WTI crude oil closed down the high line and closed the main line. The main contract in April rose by 0.42 US dollars to 93.45 dollars per barrel. Brent crude oil closed down the high line and closed the main line. The main contract in May rose 0.86 US dollars to 109.82 US dollars per barrel. The TA1309 contract closed on Friday and closed at 8244 points, up 228 points from the previous session. The top twenty bulls reduced their positions from 14766 to 121383, shorting their positions from 9405 to 128993, and generally speaking, the air side strength was slightly dominant. Trading volume increased slightly compared with the previous day, indicating that the price increase momentum is strong, MACD index green column shortening, KD index upward divergence, technology graphics view period price is strong. On the spot: PX external: $1542 / ton (-6), PTA external disk: $1108 / ton (+8), PTA inner disk: 8120 yuan / ton (+90), MEG external disk: 1058 USD / ton (+26), MEG inner disk: 7950 yuan / ton (+130), polyester chip: 9900 yuan / ton (0).

Industry dynamics: the 4#72 10000 ton MEG device in South Asia near Taiwan in February 18th is restarted, but the device may be rearranged for about 40 days in early April. It is also reported that the 1#36 10000 ton MEG installation in Taiwan South Asia will be arranged for parking inspection at the end of March, and is expected to last for 7-10 days.

PTA's internal and external market focus is relatively strong, but the trading atmosphere has not increased significantly, mainly downstream polyester factory is cautious. The high price goods in the downstream polyester market still have a supplement and fall behavior. The discount continues, but driven by the rise in futures, production and sales have been improved, and the mood of downstream replenishment has increased significantly. The trading atmosphere of the short and short market has also improved significantly, and the number of enquiries has increased. Expect Polyester filament The short and short market will be stabilized by the stabilization of raw materials and the warming up of downstream replenishment. Operation suggestion: PTA1309 empty single temporarily leave the field to wait and see.

LLDPE: the price rises can hardly cover the weakness of the spot market.

Even the plastic 1309 contract closed on Friday and closed at 10565 points, up 265 points from the previous trading day. The top twenty bulls reduced their positions from 3358 to 78540, shorting their positions from 5643 to 85126, and generally speaking, the air side strength was slightly dominant. Trading volume increased slightly compared with the previous day, indicating that the price increase momentum is strong, MACD index green column shortening, KD index in the oversold area golden fork adhesion upward, technical graphics view period price is strong.

Industry dynamics: Sinopec PE part of China's central high pressure drop, high pressure down 200, Maoming 951-050 fixed 108002426K/2426H 10650, Qilu TN26 10800, Yanshan 100AC 10650, the rest temporarily stable; linear Fuzheng 7042 set 10650, Central Plains 7050 10650; low pressure Maoming TR144 set 11300, Maoming 5502 5502 11000.

Sinopec East China PE part of the high voltage down, high pressure Shanghai Q281 fixed 10750, Q210/N150 fixed 10600, allocated Maoming 2426H 10600, all down 150, allocated Yanshan IC7A 100 down 12300, the rest remained stable.

Sinopec Southern China PE high voltage part of the price reduction, Maoming 2426K/2420H fixed 108002426H fixed 10850868-000 fixed 11000951-000 fixed 11000951-050 fixed 11000951-025 10850, down 1001810D reduced 250 to 10800, the rest remained stable. {page_break}

PetroChina northwest PE Xinjiang low settlement / down listing price, high pressure orchid 2426H knot 10900, drop 100 hang 10900; linear Dushanzi 7042 knot 10600, 150 150 10750; low pressure Dushanzi 8008 / Hang 10500, LAN 5000S knot 11450, 50 50 50.

The price surge has boosted the mentality of the PE market around the country, and the enquiry atmosphere in some parts of the morning has been warmer. However, the two major petrochemical companies have been dragging down and the downstream demand is dragging down, and the market has been shaking down. The local businesses are not performing well in the market, and the overall price is hard to be ignored. Affected by macro factors, the short term price rebound still remains, but the weak demand in the downstream market is difficult to provide impetus for the sustained upward price, and relatively limited upstream space. Operation suggestion: L1309 trend air single continues to hold, short positions are backed by 10750 yuan / ton pressure level, short selling is the main reason, and the price breaks through the pressure level.