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Terminal Sales Have Not Improved, Clothing Industry Is Still No Signs Of Recovery.

2013/3/18 17:06:00 25

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"sales performance this year is definitely worse than last year."

The saleswoman told a reporter at a "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "clothing" /a in a large Ru Mart supermarket in Shanghai. "No one can buy anything? Sales will be reduced by about half."

this is consistent with the "no improvement of clothing terminal sales" reported by many brokerages.

For garment enterprises, the primary task is to go stock.

"the clothing industry has a good market in the year before last, so we prepared more inventory last year, but the situation was bad last year, resulting in a serious increase in inventory."

A brokerage industry analyst said that the fourth quarter of last year's inventory declined compared with the three quarter, but is still in the inventory process.

going to inventory will definitely lead to more discount, which means that the gross profit margin will decline for garment enterprises.

During this process, the problems of various garment enterprises are exposed one by one.

"it is certain that the growth rate of garment enterprises will decline this year."

The apparel industry is a post cyclical industry and its orders have been completed six months in advance, so the exposure of their own problems is half a year later than the macro economy, the analysts said.

basically, the performance of all garment enterprises is still in a downward path.

Han Zhongwei, chairman and manager of American Apparel, said in a communication with investors: "in the spring of 2013, a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_f.asp "> summer wear < /a > the amount of orders declined, and the company will still moderate the futures production and distribution. We expect that there will be a certain decline in the first quarter of the alliance, but the decline will be significantly reduced.

From the point of view of direct operation, it is still in a slow recovery stage, and the changes in the retail market are still not clear at the moment.

however, in the medium to long term, the analysts said that the garment industry has at least 5 years of stable growth.

discount and inventory is the top priority.

at the beginning of new spring, many shopping malls in Shanghai produced advertisements for spring clothing promotion.

"clothing enterprises are controlling their inventory and digestion through discount."

Zhang Fengzhan, an analyst with Shanghai's securities and garment industry, said: "clothing companies are actually digesting some of their inventory turnover.

Most of the clothing companies have a better inventory. "

a number of apparel listed companies told reporters that there are more promotions at present, even if the high-end brands did not discount at the end of the season, they began to discount at the end of the season.

About inventory, besides the two quarter sales of 70%~80%, there will still be tail cargo to deal with in the third quarter.

an industry analyst said that since last year, due to the influence of the macro environment, there was still a lot of inventory in spring and summer last year, especially in this year.

Even after the launch of new products, the pace of discount is still in progress. Clothing companies are still trying to digest last year's inventory.

the analyst said that clothing is a post cyclical industry and orders are generally six months in advance.

Therefore, inventory is the expected thing, before the situation is good, so more stock.

The actual sales situation is not consistent with expectations, resulting in increased inventories, so we can only go to stock.

In addition, the poor macroeconomic environment led to a slowdown in industry sales.

Since P last year, inventory has also become an important issue faced by major listed apparel enterprises.

"P," said Tu Ke, director of apparel and apparel, said that in 2013, the company will continue to adhere to a series of strategies for inventory digestion.

for the high inventory clothing enterprises, it is urgent to go stock.

Kaiser stock has reached 380 million yuan, accounting for 70% of its revenue.

Wei Lichun, deputy chief financial officer of the company, said, "the parent company has controlled inventory growth and has a downward trend."

It says that the company will hold a special sale in spring, summer and autumn and winter in Shantou headquarters. Each time it lasts for about 2 months, it will have many styles, long duration and low price. It will be an effective way to deal with inventory.

then, how much is the stock? It is reasonable for a listed company to tell reporters that the situation of each enterprise is different, and its reasonable stock range is different. For example, men's clothing, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_h.asp" > casual wear > /a > and women's clothes are not the same, the stock of franchisees and direct stores is different, but generally speaking, the general enterprise's inventory accounts for about 30% of the clothing's main revenue, which is a normal range.

encountering electricity supplier and foreign brand attack

in fact, in addition to high inventory, since last year, under the influence of the macro-economy, the various difficulties faced by the clothing enterprises have also broken out.

data show that in January 2013, the retail sales volume of 50 key large retail enterprises decreased by 12% compared to the same period last year.

Clothing retail sales increased by -14.9%.

During the Spring Festival Golden Week of 2013, the number of retail sales of 100 major large-scale retail enterprises increased by 14.4% over the same period last year, reaching a new low of four years.

Retail sales of clothing increased by only 5.1% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped by 17 percentage points over the same period last year.

At the same time, Internet sales also cut the clothing market. In the fourth quarter of 2012, the scale of China's B2C market reached 168 billion 560 million yuan, of which the scale of clothing category pactions reached 52 billion 480 million, the growth rate was 61.6%, an increase of 223.1% over the same period last year, reaching a new high of 2012.

industry analysts said that casual clothing of casual clothing enterprises also experienced adjustment last year, in addition to being influenced by the electricity supplier, it was also affected by foreign brands.

For example, ZARA, UNIQLO and other brands are advancing rapidly in the first and second tier cities.

for high-end clothing, though affected by the sales of e-commerce, it is affected by shopping cards, group buying and so on.

The government's influence on high-end consumption restrictions also plays a role in the clothing industry.

"therefore, the growth rate of high, medium and low-grade clothing enterprises is slowing down."

The analysts said.

internal pformation is difficult to accomplish overnight /p >

clothing enterprises suffer from various external pressures, and their own contradictions are also exposed.

in which large enterprises are troubled by large enterprises.

The analysts said that the main mode of profit is the challenge of the profit model.

At the same time, the target customers are narrowing, and the development of foreign brands in the first and second tier markets is more impacted.

And the state of the United States has a relatively large volume, and it is more difficult to maintain rapid growth.

Inventory pressure has decreased this year than last year, but if terminal sales fail, it will continue to affect the development of the company.

and for another dress leading enterprise Semir dress, Dongguan securities analyst Huang Fan said that the company's two brands, Semir and balbala, have all gone through a period of rapid growth.

The pulling effect of expansion on performance will gradually weaken.

CITIC Securities analyst Wang Rong said that in 2012, Semir and Mei bang, the two leading companies in the leisure wear industry, were under tremendous pressure.

Earnings growth is not as fast as the industry average. The main reason is that it involves development, brand marketing, supply chain management and quick response capability in the process of direct competition with international brands.

These companies are facing pformation, but the pformation is difficult to achieve overnight, and the effect is still uncertain.

small companies also have difficulties for small companies.

In the view of Wang Rong, small companies have a larger space to develop, but there are more problems.

Shanghai securities clothing industry analyst Zhang Fengzhan also said, for example, Hinur vigorously opened new outlets, single store sales declined, domestic business declined.

In 2012, the company expanded against the trend, reduced franchised stores, vigorously expanded direct channels and bought shops.

By the end of 2012, the company had spent about $1 billion on shops.

When the company has little experience in the operation of the direct store and the lack of brand appeal, it will be very risky to invest heavily in commercial shops, and it will not help to enhance the core competitiveness of the company.

At the same time, expansion did not increase the company's revenue level. In 2012, the company's revenue increased by only 2.76%.

The employees of the investment department told reporters that the reduction of franchised stores was caused by the merger.

Zhang Fengzhan said that the slow growth of company performance is also related to the insufficient domestic demand in 2012.

another company reported bird business declined 21.7% in the fourth quarter last year, and operating profit fell 31.8%.

Guo Haiyan, an analyst at CICC, said the reasons include terminal sales slump, high base numbers in the fourth quarter of 2011, and delayed delivery after the Spring Festival.

The strategy of opening big stores in second tier cities may slow down.

Affected by the industry boom, and the previous financing is not as good as expected, the speed of the company's large stores will slow down in 2013, and the channel strategy of the company and the high-end brand positioning of the "second tier cities" are facing adjustment.

the reporter called the telephone of the news bird's Dong Fang Fang Fang, but no one answered it.

People in the investment department said they could only find Fang Xiao Chao's interview.

investors in the Department of business relations such as Lang Zi share and 100 round pants industry all said that the issue of inventory needs to wait for the publication of the annual report.

The seven wolves had not responded before the deadline.

Will continue to follow.

open industry secretaries Liu Guangliang said that at present the company's inventory is still in a reasonable range, some clothing enterprises have already attracted great attention to the inventory pressure, but the company has not yet reached this level.

profit growth slows down, it is difficult to avoid .

in the case of internal and external difficulties and discounts, it is inevitable that the profits of garment enterprises will be affected.

Feng Yusheng, chief executive and chief financial officer of Kaiser P, said that the price of some products had been slightly reduced last year to digest inventory.

This can be seen from the decline in gross margin.

taking Semir clothing as an example, Wang Rong, an analyst with CITIC Securities, said that the company's business area grew by nearly 15% in 2012, while the terminal sales increased by about 10%. However, inventory clearance affected the actual report revenue.

Inventory clearance also affects the effective gross margin and sales cost. Therefore, it is expected that the net profit of the company in 2012 will be significantly lower than the net income, which is expected to decline by 30%~50%.

Dongguan securities analyst Huang Fan believes that Semir clothing 2013 performance improvement depends on the degree of inventory digestion.

In the first three quarters of 2012, the company stock was 1 billion 439 million yuan, an increase of 31.3% over the beginning of the year.

Inventory digestion in 2012 was not as good as expected.

Going stock is still the focus of 2013.

And the digestion of inventory will suppress the increase of gross margin, while the cost of sales and management will be greatly improved.

It is estimated that the gross profit margin of the company will decrease by 2 percentage points year-on-year in 2012, and the net interest rate will be reduced by 5 percentage points.

another leading enterprise of leisure apparel has released its annual report in 2012. Its revenue and net profit fell by 4.38% and 29.55% respectively.

Han Zhongwei, director of the company, predicted the first quarter results in 2013. In 2013, the volume of goods in the spring and summer has decreased. At the same time, the company will still moderate the futures production and distribution, and expect that there will be a certain decline in the first quarter, but the decline will be significantly reduced.

From the perspective of direct channel, the situation of retail market is still not clear at present.

above brokers industry analysts said that the spring and summer ordering will have just opened in the fourth quarter of last year, and garment enterprises are generally affected.

Terminal sales are expected to improve in the second half of this year, but there is no sign of recovery.