Orders For Clothing Orders 2013 Will Be Recorded Negative Year-On-Year Growth.

< p > plate plate performance review.

Last week, A shares were weak in the market, including Shanghai Composite Index (-1.73%) and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (-2.57%). The clothing home textile plate dropped significantly more than the market, the textile and apparel industry as a whole (-2.79%), of which < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > textile > /a > manufacturing (-1.14%), clothing < a href= "-1.14%".

As for stocks, the companies that took the lead last week were voyage shares, China's a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_p.asp" > clothing > /a, ST Miya, seven wolves, card slave road and search for the top three.

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< p > upstream and downstream important data.

Raw materials: the price of external cotton has increased significantly, and the price difference between cotton and domestic products has continued to shrink.

The average price of 328 grade cotton spot week is 19352 yuan / ton (+0.06%); international Cotlook A94 cents / pound (+1.20%); spreads: 3257 yuan / ton (-4.98%); polyester short 10530 yuan / ton (-5.22%); sticky short 14766 yuan / ton (-1.44%); 32S all cotton yarn 25914 yuan / ton (+0); CG-C32 grey cloth 6.46 yuan / meter (+0).

Domestic sales: 1-2 months, 50 key enterprises clothing retail sales increased by 6% year-on-year.

Exports, the United States imported textile products from China in January, slower than Vietnam, Bangladesh and other countries.

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P > Company announcements and recent follow-up.

The company's net profit in 2012 was 231 million, an increase of 10.85% over the same period, and 5.5 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.

Red bean shares: 2012 net profit 276 million, down 18.66% compared to the same period.

Weixing shares: net profit in 2012 was 169 million, down 13.84% compared to the same period last year.

Wei Qiao Textile: net profit of 482 million yuan in 2012, an increase of 95.9% over the same period, mainly due to the increase in product sales and the decrease in generating cost.

PEAK Sports: 2012 net profit of 310 million yuan, down 60.1% compared with the same period last year, the number of retail outlets 6483, compared with the end of 2011 reduced 1323.

Li Lang: 2012 net profit increased by 0.6% over the same period last year, < /p >

< p > the company expects the order of 2013 autumn will be recorded a negative year-on-year growth.

Li Bang: 2012 net profit increased by 5.2% over the same period. In 2012, the growth of mainland China's income declined. The growth of new store sales was dragged down by 1.6% of the same store sales, and the growth rate was only 1.9% during the year. Wang Riming, general manager, said that the sales growth of the Spring Festival same store was somewhat worse than expected, and the first half of 2013 was expected to remain weak.

Express: fourth quarter profit increased by 6%, exceeding market expectations.

Gap: profit increased 61% in the fourth quarter.

Zumiez: profit increased 22% in the fourth quarter.

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< p > we maintain the "neutral" rating of the industry.

The brand clothing part, from the current valuation angle, has already reflected the pessimistic anticipation of the industry. In addition to the March order meeting data and two quarterly reports, the industry valuation has bottomed out.

But when we get up, in the short term, we can only hope for the improvement of terminal retail.

From a long-term perspective, we believe that in the next 2-5 years, China's garment industry will be promoted by internal management. There will be three types of companies with long-term investment value. First, companies with strong brands, such as LV, PRADA, etc., two are companies with strong capabilities in supply chain management and terminal retail management, such as H&M; three, companies with more brand operation capability (more likely); and now these years are the process of practicing internal strength, and third companies may have greater probability.

For production enterprises, the export bulletin data in 1-2 months exceeded the market expectations. There is no authoritative and reasonable explanation. Some time ago, the survey of listed companies has also indicated that orders have been improving since 2012Q4, but the price increase is limited.

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< p > from the current market sentiment and data angle, production enterprises are more attractive than brand clothing.

This week, logic and last week have not changed. Considering the strong price of cotton and the narrowing of cotton prices at home and abroad, we recommend Lu Tai A and Huafu color spinning. Besides, based on equity incentive and performance improvement, we have recommended Weixing shares since February 27th.

From the perspective of long term investment and concerns about corporate management, seven wolves, fuanna, good news birds and so on are relatively good. YOUNGOR's equity structure is also worthy of attention. For investors who like growth, they can pay attention to card road, Pathfinder (expected revenue 40%, profit 40% +), search special (estimated Q1 income 35%, profit 40%).

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