Analysis Of The Latest Viewpoint Of Textile And Chemical Industry

The number of initial jobless claims increased slightly last week, but the average weekly value fell to the lowest level in five years, indicating a continuous improvement in the job market. Last week, the number of initial jobless claims increased by 2 thousand to 336 thousand compared with the previous week, which is 340 thousand below market expectations. In March, the initial value of PMI in Markit manufacturing industry was 54.9, 54.8, and the former value was 54.3. In March, the Philadelphia fed manufacturing index was 2, with an expected -3.0 value of -12.5.

On Thursday, Kuroda Higashihiko, the newly appointed governor of the Bank of Japan, held the first press conference after taking office. He emphasized the determination to achieve the 2% inflation target within two years. He said the Bank of Japan must achieve 2% inflation target as soon as possible, and expand the scale and category of asset purchases to expand monetary stimulus.

The euro area composite PMI initial value in March was 46.5, a low of 4 months, with a forecast value of 48.2 and a pre value of 47.9. In March, the initial PMI value of manufacturing industry was 46.6, a low of 3 months, with a forecast value of 48.2 and a pre value of 47.9. In March, the initial PMI value of service industry was 46.5, a low of 3 months, with a forecast value of 48.2 and a pre value of 47.9. Corporate activities in the euro area shrank at the fastest pace in four months, and the two largest economies in the region deteriorated in Germany and France. Among them, the expansion rate of German enterprises' activities was the slowest in 3 months, and the manufacturing industry returned to the contraction area. France was shrinking at the fastest speed in four years. This is once again a blow to the market's confidence in the recovery of the euro zone.

The European Central Bank warned that if Cyprus could not reach agreement with the three carriages before the next Monday, the central bank would cut off emergency liquidity assistance to Cyprus.

HSBC released the preview value of Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI), showing that HSBC's PMI value of China's manufacturing industry was 51.7 (50.4 in February), the highest in two months. In March, PMI showed a slight improvement in the manufacturing industry. Meanwhile, the initial output value of China's manufacturing industry was 52.8 (50.8 in February), the highest in two months.

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　　 cotton

Overnight ICE cotton high and low down to collect Yin line, the main contract in May fell 0.90 cents to 88.20 cents / pound, the technical figure of the price callback pressure increased. Zhengmian 1309 contract closed on Thursday afternoon, closing at 20205 points, up 35 points from the previous trading day. The top twenty bulls reduced their positions from 174 to 47972 and 2351 to 54081. Trading volume dropped sharply compared with the day before yesterday, MACD index green pillar extended, KD index downward divergence, technology graphics view period price is weak. Cotton warehouse receipt information: cotton warehouse receipts totaled 111 (of which 37 were Xinjiang cotton), 6 less than the previous day. 31 effective forecasts. Fundamentals: domestic cotton CC Index 328 price index: 19368 yuan / ton (+4), imported cotton FC Index M price index: 98.23 cents / pound (-1.37), 1% tariff 15723 yuan / ton, discount sliding quasi tax to 16307 yuan / ton, and cotton price difference to -3061 yuan / ton.

India sales government Cotton inventory Due to the recent rise in domestic cotton prices in India, the domestic organization's demand for government to control the price of cotton has become increasingly high due to the recent rise in domestic cotton prices. At the same time, China will soon announce the new purchase and storage policy. The premise of unlimited storage will be to increase the intensity of the current cotton reserves. In the context of the fact that there is no obvious improvement in the downstream consumption and serious outflow of low-end industries, the procurement of textile enterprises is prudent. The ICE cotton futures market still has the opportunity to go up with Chinese quotas, but the expected good performance has already been made early and the upward space is relatively limited. At present, the market is waiting for policy guidance. There is still a chance to boost short-term Zheng cotton's policy. However, in the medium and long term, domestic cotton market is still hard to say.

In March 21st, the number of cotton reserves put into operation was 70159.4516 tons, and the actual turnover was 20307.8783 tons, with a turnover ratio of 28.95%, which was 0.64% higher than that of the previous transaction. The average daily turnover reserve cotton was 3.74, which was 0.06 lower than that of the previous trading day. The average length was 28.39, which was 0.01 lower than that of the previous trading day. The weighted transaction price was 18867 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day, which dropped by 48 yuan / ton, and the 328 grade transaction price was RMB yuan / ton (common weight), falling to RMB yuan / ton, which was lower than the CC Index price of that day. As of March 21st, the total amount of the total listing was 2937507.574 tons, with a total turnover of 853933.3728 tons, with a turnover ratio of 29.07%. In 2012, cotton temporary storage and storage totaled 6433770 tons, and Xinjiang totaled 2544000 tons. The total volume of transactions in the mainland was 2162820 tons, and the total turnover of key enterprises reached 1726950 tons. Operation suggestion: CF1309 trend investor can rely on 20500 yuan / ton pressure level layout empty list.

PTA

Overnight, the WTI crude oil opened up and went down for a long time. The main contract in May fell by 1.05 US dollars to 92.45 US dollars per barrel. Brent crude oil closed high and closed down, the main contract in May fell 1.25 U.S. dollars / barrel to 107.47 U.S. dollars / barrel, technology graphics look at the price rebound weak weak pattern is expected to continue. The TA1309 contract closed on Thursday, closing at 8104 points, up 32 points from the previous session. The top twenty were 8561 to 152857 hands, adding 12678 hands to 159233 hands, and the overall strength of the air side was slightly superior. Trading volume increased slightly compared with the previous day, MACD index green column shortening, KD index flat, technical graphics look at the period price is weak. On the spot: PX external: $1504 / ton (-4), PTA external disk: $1098 / ton (0), PTA inner disk: 8070 yuan / ton (+20), MEG external disk: 1032 US dollars / ton (+4), MEG inner disk: 7820 yuan / ton (+80), polyester chip: 9900 yuan / ton (0).

　　 Industry dynamics Exxon Mobil's April 2013 PX Asian contract price was set at $1650 / ton CFR.

PTA's internal and external market is still weak, and MEG's center of gravity is also weakening. The market of polyester and silk in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is disadvantaged, and the mainstream enterprises mostly focus on Ping newspaper. Fujian's high priced goods will inevitably be reduced, and downstream purchases are prudent and production and marketing levels are low. The short and short market has stabilised slightly, but there are still some reports of falling down. The manufacturers are going to take the goods at the right price and follow the purchase with the downstream. The wait-and-see mentality is obvious. Operation suggestion: PTA1309 is mainly short of rebounding, while conservatives can rebound to 8200 yuan / ton before entering the market.