Chemical Fiber Industry Will Usher In A Gradual Warming Trend

< p > < strong > periodicity promotes supply and demand improvement < /strong > < /p >

The 4 trillion yuan investment of < p > 2008 led to 2009~2011 years' continuous 3 years of domestic viscose < a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > short fiber enterprise < /a > expanded, production capacity compound growth rate reached 27%, far exceeding demand growth.

Results in 2011, the operating rate of the industry was only 65%, and the operating rate in 2012 was only about 75%.

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< p > with the decline of profit level, the investment impulse of enterprises has gradually weakened. At present, the industry is mainly in the gradual release phase of pre construction capacity, and the growth rate of new capacity since 2013 is at a low ebb.

According to incomplete statistics, the domestic viscose staple fiber production capacity increased to 410 thousand tons in 2013, and the capacity of 500 thousand tons is expected to be increased in 2014. Assuming that the average annual growth rate of viscose consumption is 20%, the domestic short sticky operating rate will reach 82% and 87% in the next two years, showing an upward trend year by year.

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< p > for this reason, Duan Xiaoping, President of China's "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "chemical fiber industry" < /a >, also said that according to the cyclical nature of the development of the industry, it is expected that the chemical fiber industry will usher in a trend of gradual warming in 2013.

Specifically, from 2003 to the present 10 years, viscose staple prices have experienced 4 low valleys (2002, 2005, 2009, 2012) and 3 peaks (2004, 2004, and).

The latest wave of price quotas reached a minimum of 13500 yuan / ton in December 2012, and is now at the starting point of the new cycle.

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< p > the supply and demand structure of viscose staple fiber industry has improved this year, and some enterprises have benefited from the improvement of the operating rate and profitability of the enterprises.

Sanyou chemical industry has the largest domestic viscose production capacity of 440 thousand tons, the company's short fiber product structure is also quite rich, leading the industry counterparts; Nanjing chemical fiber own 80 thousand tons of short fiber production capacity, and the world's leading viscose fiber Austria Lan Jing joint venture of Lan Jing (Nanjing) Company has 120 thousand tons of capacity, product quality first-class, profitability is strong.

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< p > compared with the market of viscose staple fiber, the same is true in the market of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/" > spandex < /a >.

In the past two years, with the gradual increase of new production capacity, the average annual growth rate was about 15%, of which spandex production capacity increased by 25% in 2011.

At present, domestic spandex production capacity is about 500 thousand tons, while the actual demand is only 400 thousand tons, which means that the supply exceeds demand by nearly 20%.

Due to the drag on new capacity, the price of mainstream varieties of spandex has dropped to 55% from the latest 45 thousand yuan in the past 3 years, from 100 thousand yuan per ton to high, causing the industry to fall into the abyss of gross profit.

However, since the second half of 2012, the new capacity of spandex has been put into operation, and the follow-up capacity is about 30 thousand tons, which is less than 6% of the total capacity. With the growth of new capacity, the industry has entered the stage of capacity digestion, and the supply and demand pattern has begun to improve, and the market is expected to usher in a new round of business.

Huafeng spandex, Taihe new material and so on are expected to benefit from it.

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< p > a few days ago, the first quarter earnings forecast announced by the Zhejiang Huafeng spandex Limited by Share Ltd board revealed that the price and sales volume of spandex increased significantly over the same period last year, thanks to the warming of the market. Among them, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the company reached 15 million to 21 million yuan, while the loss was 27 million 358 thousand and 100 yuan in the same period last year.

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< p > < strong > cotton price is high and the demand for chemical fiber is less than /strong > /p >

< p > viscose staple fiber is a fiber material from cotton instead of cotton, which is a substitute for cotton. Its permeability to cotton has increased year by year. From the perspective of global fiber consumption, the decline of cotton proportion is a major trend.

Data show that at present, the proportion of cotton in global fiber consumption is roughly 25%.

This proportion is maintained at around 45% in China.

At present, the contradiction between grain and cotton dispute over land and urban and rural areas is becoming increasingly prominent. Therefore, in the long run, the growth of natural fibers such as cotton is restricted, and the trend of high cotton prices will not be reversed in the short term.

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During the period of < p > 12th Five-Year, China's demand for raw materials of < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile "/a" will continue to increase, with an average annual growth of 4.5% to 5.9%.

As cotton production is difficult to increase significantly, it is estimated that the proportion of cotton to total fiber processing will drop from 28% in 2010 to about 25% in 2015, while the proportion of chemical fiber in total fiber processing is expected to increase from 70% in 2010 to more than 75% in 2015.

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< p > because of the obvious substitution relationship between polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber and cotton, the increase of cotton price will directly drive the demand of viscose staple fiber, and the cotton price protection mechanism formed by the cotton purchasing and storage policy makes domestic cotton prices often not follow the market.

Domestic and foreign cotton prices continue to hang upside down, and domestic cotton prices have even been higher than the international cotton yarn price.

Data show that in 2012, the amount of chemical fiber reached 11 million 700 thousand tons in cotton spinning industry, and the amount of raw cotton used in the whole year was no more than about 9000000 tons, and the amount of chemical fiber exceeded 2 million 700 thousand tons of cotton.

In the future, cotton prices will continue to hang upside down. Cotton enterprises will continue to increase the consumption of chemical fiber raw materials and reduce the proportion of cotton to alleviate cost pressures.

According to preliminary statistics, cotton consumption in China has shrunk by 1 million 500 thousand to 2 million tons in recent 3 years, and its lost market share is mainly occupied by polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber.

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< p > at present, the national cotton throwing storage has begun, but in the case of the huge gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices, it seems that throwing storage did not allow cotton spinning enterprises to enhance their enthusiasm for cotton, and the dumping and storage were light.

At the same time, multi fiber blending is in line with the current trend. The obvious advantages of the product also make the chemical fiber more brilliant.

Today's cotton market, pure cotton products are no longer the mainstream, and all kinds of chemical fibers occupy half of the cotton spinning industry.

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< p > Yantai Taihe new material Limited by Share Ltd announced in its 2012 annual announcement at the end of March. After more than 2 years of decline, domestic spandex prices have bottomed out, and the company's business will gradually turn around.

The market supply and demand of spandex industry is expected to gradually become more balanced, and the profitability of the industry is gradually improving while industry concentration is also expected to gradually improve.

Besides, safety and environmental protection are the main application fields of aramid fiber.

Adverse factors such as fog and haze and frequent safety incidents brought about the development of efficient dust removal facilities, high-performance protective equipment and lightweight energy-saving tools, and also created opportunities for aramid industry.

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< p > < strong > economic recovery begins to warm up downstream > /strong > /p >

< p > since the fourth quarter of last year, the survival environment of textile enterprises has been improving since the beginning of last year. Especially at the end of December last year, the export volume of domestic textiles < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing "/a" has rebounded significantly, and the domestic apparel retail sales have increased significantly after the year-on-year increase. The production and sales rate and inventory situation of the entire textile industry have been significantly improved, resulting in a low overall inventory of the industry.

In January, the textile industry purchasing managers index was 48.7, a slight rise compared with December 2012, textile and garment exports have resumed.

In the 1~2 months of this year, China's textile and clothing exports totaled US $42 billion 300 million, up 31.6% from the same period last year, which is 8.3 percentage points higher than the national export growth rate.

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From the inventory point of view, the inventory of chemical fiber has been at a low level since last year. With the increase in stocking demand, the stock has increased in the first quarter of this year, with the FDY of polyester filament increasing from 13~18 days to 15~22 days; the stock of polyester staple fiber has risen from 3~6 days to 12 days; the stock of viscose staple fiber has changed little; it has been kept for 7~8 days; the nylon stock has not changed much for 20~30 days; the spandex stock is in 30 days; on the other hand, the international oil price is in the downstream channel. With the increase of the price of chemical fiber products and the decline of crude oil prices, the profits of the chemical fiber industry company will be significantly improved.

At the same time, with the improvement of the downstream operating rate and the anticipation of the peak season of chemical fiber, the demand for stocking will increase the stocking demand of chemical fiber.

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< p > the main raw materials of spandex are PTMEG and MDI.

Yantai Wanhua is mainly engaged in research, development, production and marketing of MDI isocyanate series, aromatic polyamine series products and thermoplastic polyurethane elastomers. It is the largest MDI manufacturing enterprise in the Asia Pacific region, and the recovery of chemical fiber industry is good for it.

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