Internal Cotton Prices Have Downward Pressure, And Domestic And Foreign Cotton Prices Will Further Narrow.

< p > March, the industry slightly outperformed the market.

In March, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > textile > /a > manufacturing and clothing home textiles decreased by 0.5% and 4.93% respectively.

In the sub industry, only printing and dyeing and cotton textile industry rose by 9.62% and 0.38%, respectively, and home textile was the worst, down 13.68%.

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< p > cost side: the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices continues to narrow and narrow.

The average price of the international cotton price CotlookA (FE) is 94.45 cents / pound, and the tariff discount of 1% yuan is 15124 yuan / ton, which is lower than that of the 328 cotton index of China in the same period of 4231 yuan / ton, and the price difference dropped 695 yuan / ton from last month, a decrease of 14.1%.

The price difference narrowed nearly 30% compared with the beginning of the year.

In March, the main varieties showed a downward trend, yarn and gray cloth prices were basically positive, but the turnover was relatively light.

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< p > demand side: in the 1-2 month, the export growth rate of textile and clothing continued to rise sharply, and the export situation was significantly better than expected.

According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, the total export volume of China's textiles < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_f.asp" > clothing > /a > 1-2 increased by 31.8% compared to the same period in 2013.

Among them, the export volume of textiles increased by 26.3% compared with the same period last year, and the export volume of garments and accessories increased by 35.3% over the same period last year.

The reasons why exports are better than expected are: (1) a relatively low base in the same period last year.

(2) consumer confidence index continued to rise in the US, Europe and Japan, and retail sales improved.

(3) exports to the US, Europe and Japan have picked up.

Domestic demand: retail sales growth slowed down, prices rose significantly, retail sales increased.

According to the statistics of National Bureau of statistics, the cumulative value of clothing and shoes and hats retail sales increased by 9.4% over the same period in 1-2, and the growth rate was slower than that of the same period. The cumulative value of total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 2.9 percentage points over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 3.4 percentage points over the same period last year.

According to the statistics of the China National Business Information Center, in 2013 1-2, the retail sales of clothing commodities of hundreds of major retail enterprises in the country increased by 5% over the same period last year, and the growth rate slowed down 1.1 percentage points compared with 2012.

The price increase has dropped significantly and retail sales have increased.

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< p > textile manufacturing industry: maintain neutral rating.

Export growth rebounded sharply in 1-2 months, exceeding market expectations.

In March, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices continued to narrow.

We expect that cotton prices will continue to rise in the short term, with downward pressure on cotton prices and further narrowing of domestic and foreign cotton prices.

These two factors are good for cotton textile industry with cotton as the main raw material. We can pay close attention to the valuation repair opportunities of Lu Tai A, Huafu color spinning and Baron East, but we need to control risks, because we believe that the whole textile manufacturing sector is still short of trend opportunities.

Industry rating is still neutral.

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< p > dress > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_q.asp" > Home Textiles < /a > industry: maintain neutral rating.

In March, under the hype of the first lady's concept stocks, the apparel home textile stocks had a good short-term performance.

In the hype, high-end customization has been placed high hopes.

However, we believe that due to the current consumption habits of the Chinese people and the current situation of the clothing industry, there is still a long way to go for the development of high-end customization.

Therefore, this concept hype is difficult to continue.

At present, the trend of terminal demand warming is still not obvious, and the industry is still in the throes of going to stock.

We expect growth in the first quarter of 2013 is likely to be low.

Due to the low base effect in 2012, we expect that the second half will be better than the first half.

We believe that the industry is still not a good investment opportunity, and the pressure of the callback is still there.

The industry is also short of catalyst in recent years, so maintaining neutral rating.

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