Foreign Cotton Prices Down 2013 Year Storage Policy Expectations

< p > plate performance review.

Last week, the Shanghai composite index was sorted out on the 2200 platform, fell 0.83%, and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.86%. < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > textile > /a > clothing sector fell, the total plate fell 0.81%, of which manufacturing fell 0.57%, a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/ index_f.asp" > clothing > /a > home textile fell 1.03%.

Stocks led the company to Si Hai shares, bar Jie shares, ST Xinlong; Hua Sheng shares, black peony, leading shares fell three.

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< p > important data in the industry.

Raw materials: the price of foreign cotton fell, the internal and external price difference increased; the 2013 annual storage policy is expected.

Cotton: 328 cotton 19385 yuan / ton (+0.03%), CotookA:93 cents / pound (-2.7%); average difference between inside and outside cotton price is 3336 yuan / ton (+6.46%); polyester short 10162 yuan / ton (+1.42%); sticky short 13820 yuan / ton (+0.02%); < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > cotton yarn < /a >: 32S yarn 225957 yuan / ton (-0.04%); grey cloth: 6.47 yuan / meter.

As of 12 days, the total amount of storage and storage of China's cotton reserves was 1 million 125 thousand and 600 tons.

The US cotton export weekly data show that demand is slowing, and the USDA4 month report is empty.

The plan for temporary storage and purchase of cotton in 2013 has finally been released, keeping the open storage and storage of 20400 yuan / ton unchanged.

Exports: the first quarter exports of textile and clothing increased by 15.76% year-on-year. In March, the growth rate dropped to -11.01%. The data in 1, 2 and March have always fluctuated. In 2013 and 2010, the trend of weak recovery has not changed.

Domestic sales: in March, 50 clothing sales growth figures fell year by year, compared with the 1-2 month change is the price rise and fall. Under the influence of low temperature and slow warming, the poor performance of spring clothing sales is the reason for the decline in retail sales.

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P > Company announcements and recent follow-up.

Card slave Road: 2012 net profit increased by 61.72%, every 10 shares increased 10 shares, dividends 3.7 yuan (including tax).

Xun Hing shares: 2012 net profit decreased 46.46%, 2013 target "business income increased 10%, net profit increased 20%".

Voyage shares: 2012 net profit 282 million, increased by 6.7%, 2013 target: "sales revenue 3 billion 484 million yuan, profit 444 million 500 thousand yuan", the income eliminated the internal offset, increased 7.30% compared with 2012; profits 444 million 500 thousand yuan as the total amount of pre tax profits, then 12.70% more than 2012 (394 million).

Lu Tai A: expects net profit growth of 2013Q1 50%-70%.

Nine Hing Holdings: 2013Q1 revenue increased by 6%.

Daphne: 2013Q1 is expected to be comparable with the same store sales.

BELLE International: 2013Q1 footwear sales in the same store increased by 4.5%, and the same store increased by 11%.

Li Lang: the order of the main brand "LILANZ" will fall by 26% in autumn.

Fast sales: the company's net profit increased by 13.2% over the first half of fiscal year ended February.

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< p > we maintain the "neutral" rating of the industry, and it will be bad for orders to affect the chance of brand clothing.

Due to the poor sale and sale rate in the summer and autumn of 2012 and the poor retail environment in the 1-3 month of 2013, the order data were generally lower than expected. The mainstream men's clothing ordering data were all negative growth: the number of reported birds dropped, and the decline in men's clothing was relatively small. We estimate that most of the men's clothing in Fujian dropped by two digits.

We interpret the data as follows: (1) taking into account the growth rate of orders in spring and summer 2013, there is a risk of a decline in men's clothing sales in 2013.

(2) the main reason for the decline in orders is the impact of the 2012 inventory and the poor retail environment in the first quarter of 2013 on confidence. This is the phenomenon of multi agent mode, which is dominated by distributors, especially at the company level.

That is to say, there is no such pessimistic data for the companies directly engaged in the last week's men's orders. From this point of view, we think that the situation of the group, the card slave road and the fuanna will be better than those of the above type companies, but the poor retail environment of the terminal will have adverse effects on all garment enterprises.

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< p > the short-term attractiveness of manufacturing enterprises exceeds brand clothing.

We believe that in the short term, the production enterprises will outperform the brand clothing, such as Lu Tai A, Huafu color spinning, Weixing shares, etc. for investors who have strong preference dividends, YOUNGOR will have investment value; in clothing, taking into account the release of risk and the quarterly improvement in 2013, the chancellor line investors will step into the shares of Rand.

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