Ya'An Earthquake Has Direct Economic Losses Of Ten Billion, And Price Uplink Cycle Is Ahead Of Schedule.

< p > strong > a sudden earthquake has also made China's macro-economic building tremble.

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< p > up to 15 o'clock yesterday, the number of victims in Sichuan's a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_p.asp" > Ya'an earthquake < /a > rose to 186, and 11393 people were injured, which resulted in more than 150 million people being affected. The economic losses caused by the disaster are still being continuously counted.

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< p > up to 8 o'clock yesterday, according to Tencent official micro-blog of the Information Office of the Ya'an Municipal People's Government of Sichuan Province, nearly 400 thousand houses were damaged, 12851 collapsed, 34 reservoirs damaged, and the weir canal damaged 2668. The economic loss of agriculture and forestry water was 1 billion 430 million yuan, and 48915 households were required to be resettlement.

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"P" yesterday, a number of experts interviewed by reporters said that compared with the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, the economic losses caused by the Ya'an earthquake were much smaller. The impact on the whole year GDP was mainly reflected in the change after the decimal point.

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< p > < strong > directly < a href= > http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as > > economic > /a > loss or at 10 billion /strong < /p >

Zhang Yongjun, Vice Minister of the Economic Research Department of China International Economic Exchange Center, told reporters that it is still difficult to accurately estimate the losses caused by the earthquake, but it should be less than the impact of the Wenchuan earthquake. P

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According to the statement made by the expert committee in September 4, 2008, according to the statement of the national "a href=" http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "Wenchuan earthquake < /a >, the direct economic loss caused by the earthquake was 845 billion 100 million yuan, of which Sichuan accounted for 91.3% of the total loss." P "

Statistics show that China's GDP in 2008 was 30 trillion and 100 billion yuan, an increase of 9.6% over the same period last year. According to this calculation, the direct economic loss of the Wenchuan earthquake is less than 3% of that year's GDP.

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< p > in the earthquake, from the data that has been disclosed, the economic losses caused by this time have not yet reached ten billion.

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< p > Hongyuan securities fixed income headquarters chief analysis normal school told reporters that the earthquake loss interval should be between 10 billion to 100 billion, which has little impact on the national GDP.

At present, the total amount of GDP in China is about 50 trillion yuan, assuming that the economic loss caused by the Ya'an earthquake is 100 billion yuan, and the impact on GDP is 0.2%.

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< p > "at that time, the Wenchuan earthquake directly affected the growth rate of GDP in China over 7% or more than 8%. The impact of the Ya'an earthquake on the economy may be reflected in the difference between 7.7% and 7.6%."

Fan Wei said.

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< p > Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, believes that the post earthquake reconstruction will have a greater impact on the economy of Sichuan. However, given the current regional and destructive effects of the Ya'an earthquake, it will have limited economic impact on the whole country.

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Zhang Monan, an Associate Research Fellow of the World Economic Research Office of the Ministry of economic information of the state information center, said P, taking into account the economic share of Ya'an, its impact on China's economy is almost negligible.

In addition, the impact of the earthquake on the economy may be short-lived in terms of the length of time, and the impact of the last Wenchuan earthquake is also short-term.

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< p > < strong > or leading to a price rise period < /strong > < /p >.

< p > Xiang Songzuo, chief economist of Agricultural Bank of China, told reporters that the earthquake directly led to property losses and casualties, which directly damaged the economic stock.

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< p > Zhang Monan said that in the short term, infrastructure industry and insurance industry in the earthquake area may be affected, but post disaster reconstruction will stimulate an investment.

In addition, the earthquake will have an impact on the stock market. After all, everyone's confidence and expectations for the performance of listed companies will change, but these effects are short-lived.

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The next day after the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, the Shanghai composite index opened at a low level of over 3%, closing 1.84% on the day.

Although it rebounded in May 14th, it went back to the downtrend again.

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< p > the Ya'an earthquake directly involved many local listed companies. Many brokerages believed that some industries and companies in the disaster area may suffer losses, including pportation and communication operators in Sichuan and Chongqing, Turisthotellet, real estate and electricity supply.

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< p > April 21st night, the new hope announcement said that more than ten subsidiaries and subsidiaries in Ya'an, Leshan, Qionglai, Meishan, ABA and other places suffered property losses to varying degrees, and the estimated production reached 25 million.

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< p > in addition, Huarun 39 announced that the Ya'an branch had stopped production because of the disaster, and the company's net profit was 180 million last year.

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< p > in addition, several listed companies in Sichuan Province, such as the elegant group (002497, SZ), Tianqi lithium industry (002466, SZ), and bang share (603077, SH), have not been affected by the earthquake.

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< p > however, the direct economic losses caused by earthquakes to the disaster areas and the pressure on prices can clearly see that the "Butterfly Effect" may spread to the whole country.

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< p > in last year, when pig production declined and pork supply was tight, pig farms in Sichuan increased by 99 million 110 thousand, an increase of 5.2% over the same period last year, and 1 million 170 thousand tons of external pork, an increase of 22% over the same period last year, accounting for about 1/3 of the total pork export volume in the country.

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< p > Fan said that there may be pressure on pork supply in the short term, but the downward trend of pork prices is difficult to reverse.

This year, the CPI is expected to be low and high. The earthquake may lead to an early price rise. In the two or three quarter, prices may be under some pressure.

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< p > < strong > the rhythm of macro-control is tested < /strong > < /p >.

After the P earthquake, many enterprises offered help and donated money.

But Zhang Yongjun told reporters that relying on donations from enterprises and the community is a drop in the bucket for the whole rescue and post disaster reconstruction, mainly relying on government power.

"There is no big problem with national financial resources, earthquake relief and post disaster reconstruction."

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"P", in addition to disaster relief and reconstruction, the national macroeconomic regulation and control policy is also faced with a sudden test.

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< p > China's GDP growth rate dropped to 7.7% in the first quarter. It was defined as "weak recovery" by many economists, and the two quarter of the two quarter is facing two "stumbling blocks" of Ya'an earthquake and avian flu.

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When the Wenchuan earthquake occurred in 2008 P, the financial crisis swept the globe. The government arranged 4 trillion investment plans, of which 1 trillion of the key areas were restored and rebuilt after the disaster, and 1 trillion and 700 billion of them were actually completed.

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< p > Fan said that taking into account the intensity of the earthquake, the state's macroeconomic regulation and control should be more biased towards financial easing, and it is expected that interest rates will not be cut in the near future.

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< p > at present, many brokerages say that in the short term, they may be concerned about the industries related to rescue, such as medicine, while the medium-term construction, cement industry or the earthquake will be favorable.

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< p > Fan said that in the medium term, post disaster reconstruction will indeed bring positive pull effect to investment, and there is a positive tendency in economics.

However, from the perspective of welfare economics, the inclination of national finance to the disaster area means that the finance of other places is deflate, so the earthquake will eventually lead to losses.

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< p > from the experience of Wenchuan earthquake.

At that time, the government allocated 70 billion yuan for the recovery and reconstruction fund, including 60 billion yuan from the central budget stabilization fund, 5 billion yuan from the vehicle purchase tax, 1 billion yuan from the public welfare fund, and 4 billion yuan from the state capital operation budget.

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< p > in addition, during the post earthquake reconstruction of Wenchuan, there are arguments over over investment and duplication of construction. How to grasp the reconstruction efforts is also one of the tests for the government.

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< p > Zhang Yongjun said that there is no doubt about the rescue and reconstruction after the earthquake. The key is how to make the funds more efficient.

"We need to have a reasonable and unified reconstruction standard, a complete plan and a comprehensive coordination mechanism."

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