The National Textile Industry Is Also On The Line Of Life And Death.

On July 4, 2008 -8, in just six days, 4 central leaders went to Jiangsu, Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shandong and 5 export-oriented provinces with the most developed economy to conduct economic investigation and research.

The survival state of foreign trade enterprises has once again entered the horizon of central decision-making.

China's trade strategy has been evolving towards the "upgrading structure". "Reducing the surplus" is still one of the focuses of the business sector.

RMB appreciation and export tax rebate are two major policies to promote trade balance.

After this round of foreign trade, the adjustment of trade policy will be a difficult choice.

Ling Fangcai has received more than ten research materials this year.

Ling is the chairman of Guangdong textiles import and export Limited by Share Ltd.

As one of the largest garment exporters in Guangdong, since 2008, more research has been conducted than ever before.

First, the China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, followed by local economic and trade systems, local business associations, Statistics Bureau, safe and other foreign trade related departments.

Research departments vary, but research topics are more and more concentrated.

Ling Ling Fang has only ten surveys, three research papers on the export difficulties of enterprises, three investigations on the impact of RMB appreciation on the export of enterprises, a survey of the impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis on exports, and a survey of the impact of the export tax rebate rate adjustment on enterprises in 2007.

"This is our most difficult year."

Ling Fangcai said.

The same difficulty, different expression.

"Now it is a loss making export, but we dare not close it, so it is very difficult to start again. After the shutdown, there is a chain reaction of banks to loans, and enterprises are under pressure to export."

Yang Desheng, deputy director of the Shandong Provincial Department of foreign trade and economic cooperation, pointed out the dilemma of foreign trade enterprises.

The situation of enterprises from Zhejiang is also not good.

"The financial cost of some small and medium-sized enterprises has increased by 45%-50%."

In July 17th, Xu Guanju, chairman of Zhejiang Federation of industry and Commerce and chairman of Zhejiang Communications Group, said in an interview with our reporter.

At present, the research conclusions of various ministries and commissions have not been fully promulgated, including labour intensive export industries including textiles and clothing, which may become policy beneficiaries.

The policy recommendations submitted by various chambers of commerce are mainly aimed at maintaining the stability of the policy, the export tax rebate callbacks and the support of the capital side. These three items.

However, at present, other industries do not have clear policy information in addition to the export tax rebate policy of textile and clothing.

The textile industry is also on the line of life and death.

Cao Xinyu has never been so nervous in the past six months after the 2005 textile insurance survey.

Cao Xinyu is vice president of China Textiles Import and Export Chamber of Commerce.

Since the beginning of this year, due to the rapid deterioration of the textile and garment export situation, the chamber has organized 4 large-scale research and 5 special market research.

Half a year is close to the 10 national large-scale research is rare.

Cao Xinyu said that over the years he has come to a conclusion that "when the media find me most frequently, it is the worst time for the textile industry."

The first survey in 2008 started in February, when the commerce department just opened a ventilation meeting, and put forward to prevent the exchange rate changes, tightening policy, subprime mortgage crisis, the implementation of the new labor contract law and other multiple factors, which caused a great blow to exports.

Subsequently, the China Textile chamber of Commerce launched its first survey.

But the first research plan has just been written out, and the second research survey was launched in March.

It is time that reports of large-scale collapse of labour intensive enterprises in the Pearl River Delta began to appear in newspapers.

In order to understand the actual situation of the Ministry of Commerce, the China Textile chamber of Commerce has visited Guangdong Dongguan and Jiangsu Wujiang on the spot.

The Canton Fair opened on April 15th.

At that time, the eighteenth Shanghai East China Import and Export Fair, which was just concluded, made a negative growth for the first time.

During the 5 day session, textile and clothing products were traded at 1 billion 844 million US dollars, down 0.54% from the previous session.

Before the Canton Fair, the China Textile chamber of Commerce launched third surveys to find out the survival of textile enterprises.

The fourth survey is in 5 and June, and the export situation in the second half of this year is imminent.

After several investigations, the China Textile chamber of Commerce submitted a research report to the Ministry of Commerce and put forward a series of policy adjustment proposals.

"Jiangsu and Zhejiang enterprises are relatively less complaining, and the most grieved are the central and western enterprises, as well as enterprises in Dongguan, Zhongshan and other places in Guangdong."

Cao Xinyu said that the business foundation of the central and western enterprises was relatively weak, so the policy tightening and other factors had a great impact on it.

A toy exporter from Guangdong has participated in four or five kinds of seminars this year. Two of them went to Beijing to attend the forum of China Light Industry Arts and crafts import and Export Chamber of Commerce.

At the time of the seminar, the exporters repeatedly asked what difficulties they encountered, the next trend, and what countermeasures and suggestions, "the exporter told reporters." they are mainly looking for the details, and the government wants to know where the bottom line is.

After the decision making stage is set out, the problems reflected in the early stage are highly valued by decision makers.

After entering the June, many departments, including the general office of the State Council, the Ministry of Commerce, the development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of finance, the General Administration of customs and the State Administration of Taxation, launched intensive research to grasp the current export situation.

The local system and relevant chambers of Commerce and associations have also helped to cooperate.

"We are basically exploring the bottom line," a digital research participant told reporters. The decision makers want to clarify the export status quo, with a view to accurately anticipate the export situation in the second half or even next year, and these research reports may be warming up policies.

According to a person familiar with the matter, before and after June, the relevant leaders of the State Council have already instructed the ministries of Commerce, development and Reform Commission, General Administration of customs, State Administration of Taxation, Ministry of Finance and other ministries to investigate the export situation in their respective areas.

It is reported that these research materials will be summarized in the first half of each department's economic situation analysis conference, and then the research report will be submitted to the State Council.

A Guangdong economic and trade system official also introduced that the Ministry of Commerce has made many trips to Guangdong this year to investigate, "it only came to several times in June".

He said that Vice Minister of Commerce in Guangzhou will also go to Guangdong to understand the situation. The theme of the survey is "Pearl River Delta business situation research forum".

The main topics include the current difficulties faced by enterprises, the expected trend of next step and the three parts of countermeasures and suggestions.

Guangzhou City Economic and Trade Bureau has received 7 groups of research teams from Beijing in the past month.

In July 17th, Xiao Zhenyu, director of the Guangzhou Municipal Economic and Trade Bureau, said that the office of the State Council, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of finance, the State Administration of Taxation, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of customs and the office of Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao have arrived in Guangzhou.

In recent two days, relevant officials of the State Council Secretariat are also studying the ecology of small and medium-sized enterprises in Guangdong.

Customs officers also revealed to reporters that in early July, some local customs officials began to hold business seminars and submitted reports to the General Administration of Customs in conjunction with the regional conditions.

He said that they were preparing materials for the "first half year economic situation analysis conference" in mid July.

This is the current report on the foreign trade situation. The Ministry of Commerce and international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute will launch relevant research topics. The research group will make policy recommendations in this report.

Besides, some traders and associations including China Light Industry Crafts Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, China Chamber of Commerce for mechanical and electrical products import and export, and China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce have basically completed their research. Some businessmen and associations have submitted reports to the Ministry of Commerce or the relevant think-tank of the State Council. Among them, the most important thing is the policy recommendations for warming up various industries.

By July, the situation was pressing.

The early stage is not over yet, and the decision makers have personally taken the baton.

On the last weekend of June, the Jiangsu Provincial Department of foreign trade and economic cooperation sent an urgent notice to all provincial foreign economic and trade enterprises to provide basic materials for the upcoming high-level research, and requested that the foreign trade office be completed within three working days.

Data intensive and thorough research are related to a series of fluctuating data.

Statistics released by the Customs on July 10th showed that the total value of China's imports and exports reached US $1 trillion and 234 billion 170 million in 1-6 this year, an increase of 25.7% over the same period last year.

Among them, exports of 666 billion 600 million US dollars, an increase of 21.9%.

If we look at absolute data growth, this is not only a worrying data.

The Dow Jones news agency surveyed 12 economists, who expect June exports to rise by 23.4% over the same period last year.

Economists' predictions are comparable to those published.

But this is absolute growth data, followed by a downward curve.

Compared with the same period last year, the 21.9% export growth rate has been reduced by 5.7 percentage points.

If the analysis is detailed, the export growth rate will decline to 17.6% in the single month of June, compared with 28.1% in May.

There is more room for concern.

How much moisture is there in the data?

A direct reason is that the import and export trade figures derived from customs statistics still have gaps with the enterprises' sense of warmth and warmth.

Lehman, an economist in the Asia Pacific region of the Sun Mingchun brothers, analyzed that even the growth rate of 17.6% in June also exaggerated the growth of China's exports.

Because this is measured in the name of value. If the growth of export volume is announced every two weeks, the export growth in June is likely to be less than 10%, which is far less than the average export growth rate of 25% last year.

In the first half of the year, the average export growth rate of over 20% was not much different from that in the second half of last year, but the actual growth rate was different.

Zhang Yongjun, a researcher at the National Information Center, said that in the first half of 2008, the price of domestic exports increased by about 10%, compared with about 5% in the second half of last year. Considering that the data of the Chinese customs were priced on the basis of the depreciation of the US dollar, if the price was calculated in Renminbi, the actual export growth rate was only 10%.

The Ministry of Commerce has always hoped that the annual export growth rate can be no less than 15%.

But Jin Bosheng, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce, told reporters that in the first half of the year, the export growth rate of 21.9% was estimated to be about 10%.

Water squeezing began in 2007.

At the beginning of 2007, the Ministry of Commerce, the State Administration of Taxation, the General Administration of customs, the State Administration of foreign exchange and other relevant departments have formed a joint investigation team to Shenzhen, which has opened up billions of dollars in Shenzhen textile and garment exports.

Of the 17 surveyed, 16 had high priced exports.

Take export underwear as an example, the average export price of domestic exports is 2 US dollars, and the export price of some Shenzhen enterprises is as high as 200 US dollars.

Conclusion: the four largest survey, the China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce found that the biggest impact on enterprises was the rapid appreciation of nearly 6% yuan in the first half of the year, followed by the tension of the current capital chain.

It is reported that many enterprises' settlement cycle is forced to lengthen, "the extension of 30 days to 60 days, originally 60 days' extension to 90 days, has already appeared the enterprise because of the capital chain rupture and the collapse case."

The fall of Shandong cherry blossoms is just trapped in capital.

In April, Shandong Sakura Textile Group, a large cotton spinning enterprise, was unable to turn around and had debts of 890 million. It was reorganized by Shandong Ruyi group.

Cao Xinyu said in an interview with our reporter that through a series of research, they came to three conclusions.

First, under the double blow of domestic pressure and weak international demand, the textile and garment industry has been seriously affected. "It is not that enterprises are unwilling to upgrade and adjust, but the external environment is too bad to be able to maneuver".

In 2008, the export of textile and clothing was not optimistic in the whole year of May. In May, the clothing exports accounted for more than 60% of the industry's exports, and exports increased by only 1.1% compared with the same period last year.

Three, there are uncertainties in the European Union, one of the main markets. At present, the EU is beset by the "three high" problems of high exchange rate, high oil price and high inflation, which may affect the export of domestic enterprises in the second half or even next year.

"At present, there are more than 40 thousand domestic textile and garment enterprises above scale (annual sales income of more than 5 million), 2/3 is in zero profit state, the rest 1/3 is slightly profitable, and the average net profit level will not exceed 3%."

First textile network analyst Wang Qianjin told reporters that this is a general estimate of their industry.

Liu Chunzhou, director general of the import and export Comprehensive Department of China mechanical and electrical chamber of Commerce, told reporters that 90% of the more than 7000 electromechanical enterprises interviewed showed a downward trend in orders.

According to a report from the China mechanical and electrical chamber of Commerce, most enterprises believe that the main factors leading to cost rise since last year are: price rise of raw materials, excessive appreciation of RMB, and rising labor costs.

Especially since this year, the rate of RMB appreciation is much higher than that of enterprises. At the same time, export rebates and rising interest rates are also important factors affecting the cost of enterprises.

Taking into account the above factors, the average cost of enterprises increased by about 10%~20%; meanwhile, 75% of enterprises.