Global Cotton Is Showing An Excess Supply Pattern, And The Price Difference Between Inside And Outside Cotton Enterprises Will Be Restored.

12, the US Department of agriculture in July agricultural products (quotes, inquiring) supply and demand report is fresh. From the report data, first of all, whether it is this year or the new year, the global cotton Both showed a pattern of oversupply, which laid a weak trend in the late cotton price operation. However, from the absolute amount of excess supply, the global surplus of cotton supply in the new year has shrunk to 1 million 790 thousand tons, a decrease of 1 million 230 thousand tons compared with the current year, indicating that the pressure of oversupply of global cotton has eased in the new year. However, it should not be overlooked that by the impact of China's cotton purchase and storage policy in recent two years, China and the world's cotton stocks at the end of the year have soared and hit a historic high. The pressure of high storage pressure on cotton prices should not be overlooked. Investors need to pay close attention to the trend of selling cotton stocks.

Secondly, according to China's supply and demand data, China's cotton output is 7 million 620 thousand tons, 7 million 838 thousand tons of consumption and 4 million 355 thousand tons of imports this year. According to the calculation, China's cotton supply will exceed 4 million 137 thousand tons this year. It is the supply of adequate cotton that sets the tone for the weak operation of the cotton price this year. But this year should not be overlooked for 6 million 500 thousand tons of cotton collected by the state, as well as the ongoing selling of cotton reserves (the total volume of sales being sold by July 12th was 2 million 866 thousand tons). In view of this, China's cotton supply and demand this year is in a weak balance pattern, which is also the main reason for bullying the continuous consolidation. According to the forecast data of cotton supply and demand in the new year, the output and import volume have been reduced to varying degrees. Consumption is flat with the previous year. In the new year, China's cotton supply continues to exceed the supply pattern, with an excess of 1 million 960 thousand tons, but the surplus of 4 million 137 thousand tons has narrowed considerably compared with the current year. In addition, China's 12 million 831 thousand tons of final inventory has reached a record high in the new year. Such a large stock reserve can meet the consumption of two cotton in China. From this point of view, the upward pressure on cotton prices in the new year is huge.

Finally, look at the statistics of supply and demand in the US. As we all know, the United States is one of the main cotton producing countries in the world, but its cotton is mainly used for export and its consumption is very small. Therefore, when we look at the US supply and demand data, we should focus on the change of export data. From the data of supply and demand in July, this year American cotton Output, consumption and export volume have increased in different ranges compared with the previous year, with a slight surplus in supply. Comparatively speaking, this year's US cotton market is obviously more active than that of Zheng cotton, and the factors such as weather will be reflected on the disk in time, while Zheng cotton has basically weakened other factors besides the policy. In the new year, the trend of US cotton is stronger than that of Zheng cotton.

Based on the above analysis, the author believes that only from the data of supply and demand, Zheng cotton will continue to operate in a weak position this year. Combined with policy support, it is estimated that the CF1401 contract will be running at an interval of 19800 to 20200, falling below 19800, and buying at a range of 82 to 89 cents / lb. Later, investors need to pay attention to whether China's cotton throwing and storing policy will continue. If 8 and September continue to throw away stores, then the core of the US cotton will move up with the support of the 3 to 1 matching import quota policy, otherwise it will continue the current operation pattern. For the new year's trend of internal and external cotton, I believe that because domestic cotton is still oversupplied and facing huge inventory pressure, and the US cotton supply and demand is relatively tight, it is estimated that the trend of the US cotton will be stronger than that of Zheng cotton in the new year. Internal and external cotton enterprises The price difference will be fixed.