This Year, The Total Output Of Cotton In China Is Decreasing, And The Price Is Heading For "Undetermined".

China's reserve cotton Management Corporation Cotton market The monitoring system recently launched an investigation on cotton growth throughout the country. The survey results showed that as of the end of August, a wide range of agro meteorological disasters in the whole country had a great impact on cotton production. The average output per unit area of new cotton in China was 100.1 kg / mu, a decrease of 3.7% over the previous year. The decline was 2.6 percentage points larger than that in June. The total output was 7 million 92 thousand tons, a decrease of 6.9%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points compared with the June forecast.

Disasters frequently occurred in cotton fields in the mainland, and the weather in Xinjiang was basically normal. According to the survey, in the 7~8 months of this year, some parts of the the Yellow River River Basin were attacked by severe convective weather such as torrential rain, hail and strong winds. The high temperature and drought in the Yangtze River Basin lasted for a long time. In the subregion, waterlogging is more frequent than drought in cotton fields in the Yellow River basin. Verticillium Wilt and Fusarium wilt are mixed. Drought is the main cause of cotton in the Yangtze River Basin, and Fusarium Wilt and Helicoverpa armigera are mostly harmful. The weather is basically normal in the inland cotton area of Northwest China. Cotton growing in most parts of Xinjiang is better and the extent of the disaster is limited.

The cotton bud growth was affected and the picking time was basically normal. According to the survey, there is a flood situation in Shandong Province, the main producing province of the Yellow River basin, but the extent of the disaster is limited. 94% of the farmers expect the picking time to be normal or ahead of schedule. Cotton planting in Hebei province is late this year, and it rains more than usual, resulting in lagging growth. 57.1% of farmers are expected to delay picking time, and pick up is expected to be postponed for 7~10 days. In the Yangtze River Basin, Hubei and Hunan are affected by the continuous high temperature, cotton is early mature, and the picking is expected to be 10 days and 13 days ahead. The Northwest Interior Xinjiang area has frequent cold air activities this year, with low temperature and excessive rainfall. There are varying degrees of delay in most cotton fields from bud to flowering stage. 60.8% of farmers are expected to delay picking time, and pick up is expected to be postponed for 7~10 days.

It is estimated that the average yield and total yield of cotton are lower than that of last year. In September, the weather was normal in most parts of the country. It is estimated that the average annual yield of cotton in the whole country will be 100.1 kg / mu in 2013, 2.6% lower than that in June, down 3.7% from the same period last year, and 5.8% higher than the average in the past 3 years. According to the national cotton market monitoring system May sowing area survey results of 70 million 809 thousand mu, the total output of cotton in 2013 is expected to be 7 million 92 thousand tons, a decrease of 6.9% over the previous year, and a decrease of 2.7% over the past 3 years. The average yield per unit area in the cotton basin in the the Yellow River River Basin was 13.1% lower than that in June, down 5.6% from the same period last year, and the output is expected to be 1 million 536 thousand tons, a decrease of 16.3% over the previous year. The average yield per unit area in the Yangtze River Basin decreased by 6.7% compared with June, down 16.1% from the same period last year. The output is expected to be 1 million 37 thousand tons, a decrease of 21.6% over the previous year; the average yield per unit area in the northwest inland cotton area increased by 2.6% over the previous year, a decrease of 3.9% over the same period last year, and the output is expected to be 4 million 478 thousand tons, an increase over the previous year. (central reserve)

Comment

Will cotton production price go up?

At present, it is time for cotton picking up in the whole country. Earlier, it was reported that cotton production decreased this year, or led to Cotton price Rise. At present, China's cotton production is likely to be a foregone conclusion. Cotton growers in most areas say that the quality of cotton has improved this year. Because of the good quality of cotton and the decrease of cotton planting area, cotton farmers are reluctant to sell and have a higher psychological expectation price. But will cotton production really push cotton prices up?

Cotton production and cotton price rise appear to be in line with market rules. As cotton growing costs continue to rise, cotton farmers generally believe that the current market price is low, the cotton yield per mu is too small, Henan cotton farmers think that this year's seed cotton purchase price in 9~10 yuan / kg is reasonable, but the acquisition enterprise does not agree. Because most of our cotton is used for storage and processing, and there is a clear price for storage and storage, the head of a cotton processing enterprise in Fugou County, Henan, said: "seed cotton is higher than 9.2 yuan / kg, and we will lose money."

There are also some local enterprises to buy Cotton in full swing. The price of white cotton 2~3 grade seed cotton has increased to 8.7~8.9 yuan / kg in a 400 type enterprise in Dezhou, Shandong, attracting local and foreign cotton to gather, and the daily purchase amount exceeds 100 thousand kg. A ginning company in Shandong said that it was worried that irrational buying and buying would happen under the condition of "lack of money" in the cotton resources, and that the seed cotton purchase price would continue to go up and up. Once the 40 lint seed cotton purchase price exceeded 9.3 yuan / kg, and the lint grade could not reach the "21" level, the loss of the buyer would inevitably be inevitable.

Earlier, insiders also said that the acquisition price of cotton market would be difficult to raise. The reason is mainly due to the fact that China has a clear price for storing and storing cotton. Cotton processing enterprises The only way out is that the standard line of 20400 yuan / ton includes the cost of planting cotton, the income of cotton farmers and the profits of cotton processing enterprises. If the market purchase price is too high, but the quality can not reach the ideal level, the cotton processing enterprises will lose money.

In addition, our country has implemented the cotton purchase and storage policy for several years. Now the national cotton inventory is adequate. Although the new cotton has been cut down, it will not have a big impact on the supply and demand of cotton in China. Therefore, the overall supply of cotton in China is still stable, and there will be no cotton rush phenomenon in cotton enterprises. Shandong Cotton Association Ma Junkai believes that the lower reaches Spin Enterprise demand is not strong, and many enterprises are not willing to use domestic cotton. He added that after the tariff was added, the price of imported cotton was similar to that of domestic cotton, but the quality of foreign cotton was obviously higher than that of domestic. Zhuochuang information analysts also believe that under the guidance of policies, cotton prices will rise slightly if cotton stores are not put in short term, but the cotton yarn market will be limited by the pressure from the mills and downstream factories.

To sum up, the cotton price change that may be affected by the cotton production reduction can be said that the cotton price may be improved relative to that of last year, but the rate of increase will be very small, and it is only limited to the purchase price of the former cotton market, which has little effect on the cotton enterprises. Yang Xinghua