Textile Raw Materials Prices Loose PTA Weakened

The futures price of < p > PTA (7772, -12.00, -0.15%) has quickly withdrawn from the 7920 important support price of the downhill market in September, and has gone out of a more spectacular market.

At present, the technology and fundamentals have not supported PTA to continue to rise. From the perspective of firm operation, the time for PTA to establish empty documents is ripe.

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< p > < strong > 1, fundamental analysis < /strong > < /p >

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< p > < strong > 1.1.1, seasonal demand far away, crude oil returned to the weak position < /strong > /p >

< p > I believe that crude oil will maintain a weak pattern in the next few months. The reasons are as follows: < /p >

< p > first, first of all, in view of the situation in the Middle East, the recent trend has been gentle.

The crisis in Syria, which was worried about the market in the early stage, was the turning point of Russia's involvement. The Syrian government expressed its willingness to join the chemical weapons convention and was willing to hand over the chemical weapons owned by the Syrian government to international supervision. Since then, the situation in Syria has been easing up. The Syria crisis is only a short-term but not decisive factor affecting the crude oil.

Moreover, the relationship between the United States and Iran has begun to improve, and the geopolitical crisis has become insipid. The crisis of crude oil supply has begun to ease.

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< p > secondly, on the supply side, there are indications that the supply of crude oil is still relatively abundant.

According to OPEC's latest monthly report.

At present, crude oil stocks in OECD countries have maintained 58.5 days, which is higher than the historical normal level, highlighting the fact that the supply of the market is still in a state of plenty, which has dispelled the worries of the tight supply of crude oil at some levels.

In addition, according to the EIA report, the crude oil production capacity of OPEC, which is buffered by market supply, is nearly 200 thousand barrels higher than that of a year ago in 2013, which could also eliminate the worries of crude oil supply.

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< p > finally, according to the seasonal supply and demand rule, after October, the peak period of crude oil consumption has ended and gasoline consumption has begun to slow down.

And at the current time node, the peak of winter heating in the United States has not yet started. Refineries often reduce the operating rate due to the adjustment of refined oil products, thereby lowering the demand for crude oil, thereby lowering the price of crude oil.

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< p > above analysis, in view of the support of seasonal demand, the ample supply of crude oil and the moderate political situation in the Middle East, oil prices will remain weak in October, which is expected to impact the pre platform stage [98100].

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< p > < strong > 1.1.2, PX price analysis < /strong > /p >

< p > with the fall of crude oil prices in the early September, the price of petrochemical products began to loosen. The price performance of PTA was particularly strong. In a month, the price of the petrochemical industry had already dropped 190 yuan / ton, but the price of PX was relatively strong. At present, the situation of strong and weak PTA industry chain is still hard to change.

The author believes that, with the weakening of crude oil prices in the late period, PX prices will be difficult to maintain, and the possibility of loosening and maintaining weak shocks will be greater.

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< p > first, from the supply side.

According to the traditional seasonal experience, generally speaking, with the advent of the golden nine silver ten consumption peak season, the supply of PX will begin to increase after mid September, and the early parking repair devices will also resume operation. Therefore, the situation of tight supply of PX will be improved.

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< p > secondly, from the perspective of new capacity.

According to the information provided by Zhuo Chuang consulting, Tenglong aromatics 800 thousand tons PX plant began commercial operation in August 20th, Pengzhou Petrochemical 600 thousand tons, Sichuan Petrochemical 650 thousand tons of PX capacity is expected to be put into operation at the end of October, the second half of the year PX production capacity is expected to be 1 million 450 thousand tons, which can also alleviate PX supply pressure at some levels.

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< p > again, from the point of view of imports, according to the information provided by wind, the volume of imports of PX in July and August began to rebound rapidly, which was close to the highest level in the first half of this year, which has certain positive effects on alleviating PX supply.

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< p > finally, from the perspective of demand.

Although it is still in the traditional consumption season of golden nine silver ten, but in the current situation, this year's peak season did not appear in the past hot situation, with the consumption season away, PX demand will be difficult to continue.

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< p > above all, the supply of PX will remain relatively relaxed in the future market. The author is cautious about the price of PX, and the probability that PX prices will remain weak will increase.

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< p > < strong > 1.2, PTA supply analysis < /strong > /p >

< p > since September, with the weakening of PTA spot price and the relatively strong PX price of upstream raw materials, PTA manufacturers began to lose money, and once expanded to 300 yuan / ton, and in September this year, there was no peak season effect. The loss increased. The operating rate of PTA enterprises once again fell back. As of September 30th, the operating rate reached 73%, which was nearly 8 percentage points lower than the 81% of August commencement peak.

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In terms of production facilities for < p > PTA, the planned new capacity in China this year is 4 million tons of Xianglu petrochemical, 1 million 500 thousand tons of Sheng Hong petrochemical and 2 million 200 thousand tons of Hengli petrochemical company. According to the relevant consultation, most of the new production capacity is postponed until October, and the specific time is not known.

This month, the Far East Petrochemical two 600 thousand tons parking, Ningbo Yisheng 2 parking by the end of August, Yisheng Dalian device overall load began to maintain 6 by the end of August, Yisheng Hainan plant parking on the whole, Liaoyang petrochemical, Peng Wei Petrochemical all line parking, Sinopec several sets of old equipment load is low.

Although some of the devices entered the repair period in 9 and October, the capacity to suspend production is difficult to change the whole supply pattern, and in the medium to long term, the pattern of PTA oversupply is still difficult to change.

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< p > although the operating rate has dropped in September, demand has not been fully restored, sales are still relatively light, and PTA's social stock has increased.

According to wind data, by the year September 27th, the social stock of PTA remained at about 17 days, and the average stock of the factory remained at 6 days. The PTA stock of the downstream polyester plant remained at 11 days. The overall social inventory was only behind the highest level of the year. With the coming of the consumption off-season, the process of de stocking will not be completed in a short time.

Therefore, whether from the late capacity increase or the recent inventory level, PTA's inventory pressure is still a problem that can limit the price increase.

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< p > strong > 1.3, downstream demand < /strong > /p >

< p > > a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile < /a > industry, as the terminal demand industry of PTA, there is a strong seasonal rule. There will be two waves of consumption peak in one year: one wave is 3-4 months per year, the other is 9-10 months per year, while the polyester industry usually starts 1-2 months in advance to start stocking to cope with the consumption peak every year.

However, this year's PTA downriver busy season has appeared the awkward situation in the busy season. The gold and silver ten market is no longer the same. The downstream weaving factories only keep intermittent stocking, and take along with them.

According to the relevant data, the stock of polyester products is showing signs of uplift.

As of September 27th, FDY inventory remained at 21.2 days, DTY inventory remained at 28.3 days, and short and short stocks remained at 21.4 days, all close to the inventory level at the beginning of the year.

And with the shrinkage of later demand, the demand for stocking in polyester factories will be further reduced, which will also reduce the demand of PTA to a certain extent.

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In terms of domestic demand, the total number of retail sales of social consumption released by the National Bureau of statistics in August was 1 trillion and 888 billion 620 million yuan, up 13.4% in nominal terms.

Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods above the limit reached 949 billion 30 million yuan, an increase of 11.5%.

In 1-8, retail sales of consumer goods totaled 14 trillion and 816 billion 370 million yuan, an increase of 12.8% over the same period last year.

Among them, < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > shoes > hat > needle textiles total retail sales in August amounted to 78 billion 570 million yuan, an increase of 13.7% over the same period, and the macro environment improved.

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< p > exports, according to the data released by the General Administration of customs, exports amounted to US $28 billion 40 million in the month of August, up by 14% and 1.3% respectively.

Among them, textile exports amounted to 9 billion 390 million US dollars, an increase of 16.8% over the same period, a slight decrease of 2% compared with the same period, and a 18 billion 650 million increase in clothing exports, an increase of 12.6% over the same period last year, and a 3% increase over the same period.

In the 1-8 months, the total export volume of textiles and clothing increased by US $182 billion 900 million, an increase of 12.9%, of which 70 billion 110 million US dollars in textile exports, an increase of 12.2%, and clothing exports 112 billion 790 million US dollars, an increase of 13.4%.

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< p > overall, on the analysis of the current situation, the demand of PTA may be near strong and weak, and therefore a very unfavorable factor to price.

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< p > < strong > two, technical aspect analysis < /strong > < /p >

On the technical side, PTA has been under pressure from the 7920 front line since April (corresponding to the pink line in the picture below). Although there was a breakthrough in the first half of 6, the intensity of P was not strong enough, and dropped rapidly after September.

In terms of indicators, the MACD index shows signs of dead crossing under the 0 axis, the green column becomes longer, and the downlink forces are enhanced. On the average, the PTA price index is again under the suppression of the short and medium average, and the average line is again diverging. As for the position, as of September 30th, the PTA1401 position is near the 450 thousand hand, which is close to the same level in August, but the volume has shrunk considerably, and the fund involvement is not enthusiastic.

In summary, from a technical point of view, the probability of maintaining a weak market in the PTA market is relatively large, and there is a sign that the 7600 front-line movement is low.

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< p > < strong > three, operation strategy < /strong > < /p >

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< p > according to the above analysis, based on the fundamentals of PTA, the author takes a cautious attitude towards the < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > quotes > /a > in the PTA market, and recommends that investors take the idea of interval operation to break positions and add positions to set up positions, and pre operation space [7700-7830]. During the operation, we need to pay close attention to the support of 7700 points, once the support of 7700 points is broken, the empty space can be added to the warehouse.

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