Benefit From Sustained Recovery In Exports And Continued Weak Recovery In Textile Manufacturing Industry

< p > industry operation: in September, the industry slightly outperformed the market.

In September, the difference between inside and outside cotton prices was widened.

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< p > short term spreads are expected to remain at a high level of 4000-5000 yuan / ton.

In September, prices of other raw materials were basically stable.

External demand: the export growth rate in August has been adjusted back to last month, but it has maintained steady growth.

Domestic demand: August a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > retail sales growth rate rebounded.

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< p > three quarterly forecast: < /p >

< p > a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile < /a > manufacturing industry: benefiting from the continuous recovery of exports, textile manufacturing industry continues to be weak.

It is expected that three quarterly results will continue to rise. The industry's overall revenue is expected to achieve 5%-10% growth and net profit growth at 20%-30%.

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< p > industry leading performance continues to recover.

Benefit from the decline in raw material costs and the rise in export prices, it is expected that the gross profit margin and net interest rate of the three quarterly report will continue to rise.

Clothing home textile industry: as domestic terminal retail is still in the doldrums, the channel expansion continues to slow down, and still vigorously to inventory. The three quarterly trend of apparel home textile industry is still downward.

Industry revenue growth 5%-10%, net profit fell 5% to 10%.

The net profit growth of each sub industry is expected to be: the best outdoor business growth, 74% increase; women's clothing growth 5%-10%, home textile growth 10%-20%; men's wear decreased by 15%-30%; a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > shoes < /a > industry decreased 25%-35%; casual wear decreased by 15%-25%; fur clothing increased by about 30%.

In addition to outdoor, women's clothing, home textiles, fur clothing can achieve a certain growth, men's clothing and footwear industry has increased to a certain extent, the downward trend of casual wear has slowed down.

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< p > Investment Strategy: textile manufacturing industry: maintain prudent recommendation rating.

The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices in September has widened since last month, and the price gap is expected to remain at a high level of 4000-5000 yuan / ton in the near future.

Export growth continued to pick up in August, and exports grew steadily in 1-8 months.

It is expected that the three quarterly performance of the leading industry will show a continuous upward trend, and the annual performance of the sector will continue to recover.

Maintain a cautious recommendation rating on the plate.

It is suggested that we continue to pay attention to the opportunities of valuation upgrading, such as the leading A, Huafu color spinning and Bailong's continuous recovery.

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< p > clothing home textile industry: maintain neutral rating.

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< p > August, the number of retail sales of 100 major large-scale retail enterprises increased by 8.8% over the same period last year, of which sales of clothing sales increased by 4.7%, and terminal sales remained relatively low.

In the recent market rebound and the speculation of stocks, the enthusiasm of plate investment has been restored and valuations have been repaired.

We believe that there is still no significant improvement in the fundamentals of the industry, the differentiation of the sub sectors is more obvious, the outdoor maintains relatively good level of growth, the high-end women's clothing goes beyond the stock expectation, the home textile continues to advance to inventory, the performance is relatively stable, the men's wear and footwear sector will continue to deteriorate, and the leisure wear goes to the largest inventory and the most profound adjustment.

Rebound to the present height, we think that because of the industry fundamentals decided to go up the space is relatively limited, vigilance callback risk.

We maintain a neutral rating on the industry.

But the terminal went to inventory for more than a year, the fourth quarter inventory is expected to significantly reduce, some sub sectors and stocks are expected to touch bottom in advance.

Therefore, we believe that if the industry is callback, the space should be small. We can take the opportunity of callback to increase the allocation of sub sectors and stocks that are more intensive and adjust more fully, and wait for the investment opportunities brought about by the fundamental reversal of the industry.

In October, we can pay close attention to the investment opportunities of three relatively good quarterly stocks, such as Pathfinder, search special, fuanna, Langer, Semir a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > dress < /a >.

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