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RMB "Into 5" Almost No Suspense Private Service Enterprises Complain Incessantly

2014/1/7 18:30:00 32

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Private Service Enterprises RMB Foreign Exchange

RMB sorry RMB? This sentence is the most popular "Tucao" at present. It tells Li Li's voice.

When p went to work in December 31, 2013, he began to call fifth times. He found a reporter and asked a question that many people would like to know: what will be the price of RMB in 2014?

Li Li is a business manager of an internationally famous logistics company and basically ignorant of exchange rate matters.

But these days, his boss gave him a new assignment and asked him to write a forecast report of RMB exchange rate in 2014.

The problem of Li Li P has become increasingly urgent after the new round of RMB appreciation.

In December 30, 2013, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1024, which is the forty-first time that the yuan has reached a record high in one year in 2013. So far, the appreciation of RMB against the US dollar has reached about 3% in one year.

This figure was 1.03% in 2012 and 5.11% in 2011.

"with the appreciation of the renminbi, there is no doubt that the middle price of the RMB against the US dollar entered the" 5 era "in 2014.

This has become the market's judgement of the most mainstream trend of RMB in late 2013.

The question is, what is the renminbi going up to the "5 age"? What is the price and the logic behind this rise? What will be the impact? As a financial reporter, we have made a N phone call like Li Li, trying to answer Li Li's question.

private enterprises complain less than /strong > /p >

if Li Li is only "Tucao", Gu Xin Yi has already jumped foot.

Gu Xinyi is the head of GUI Shi Di Trading Company, specializing in garment processing and export trade.

His company has two garment processing plants in Zhejiang. The main export destination of clothing is the United States, with an annual export volume of 20 million -4000 dollars.

"In 2007, a sharp appreciation of the renminbi, some large export garment factories in Zhejiang were basically" eliminated ", and this year is more thorough.

Gu Xin Yi said with some excitement, "now there are almost 1000 garment factories in Zhejiang, and there are only five or six factories in my own two factories."

"in fact, factories are not short of orders, but we are not very willing to take orders. Even if they are not produced in their own factories, they are outsourced to some workshops. Some workshops specialize in sleeves. Some workshops are specialized in making caps, and then take them back to assemble, so that the cost of enterprises will be saved, but the quality of products will not be guaranteed."

Gu Xin Yi said helplessly.

employment has also been affected.

He said: "this year, our industry has no longer gone to other provinces to recruit workers.

Before the new year's Eve, the migrant workers will go home. We will tell them that they will come back again. Before the lunar new year, we did not mention anything this year.

After that year, no enterprise went to Anhui or other provinces to recruit workers.

who has engulfed Gu Xin Yi's profits and stolen the work of migrant workers, RMB? /p.

since the second exchange rate reform started in 2005, the cumulative appreciation of RMB against the US dollar has exceeded 35%, and the appreciation rate of RMB against the euro has exceeded 20%.

"the most rapid appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar should be in 2007. The annual appreciation rate is over 6%, and the enterprise has fallen a large piece. In that year, my company lost 9 million dollars."

Gu Xinyi sighed.

Zhejiang, Guangzhou can not escape.

Yi Xuhong, director of the Finance Department of Guangzhou yuan Jun Plastic Products Co., Ltd., specializing in the export of tableware, said: "because of the appreciation of the renminbi, the company will lose 2% of its profits this year, about about 2000000 yuan."

Although the tableware produced by Yi Xuhong's company is mainly exported to Europe and South America, the trade settlement currency still uses the US dollar.

Less than P, small businesses are not as easy as big multinational companies.

Li Li's company is a multinational freight forwarding company based in Germany, which involves air, sea and inland pportation. Its department is responsible for air pportation.

"Even now, we have to quote a daily reference rate from overseas companies every day.

However, sometimes there will be a noticeable increase in the number of hours, and the scope is relatively large, so the losses caused by the exchange rate can not be avoided.

The enterprises of Gu Xinyi are now squeezing at the two ends. On the one hand, the labor cost of workers is rising, and on the other hand, the RMB keeps rising.

"Prices are rising, artificial rises will not be avoided, and workers' wages must rise."

Less than P, the export tax rebate can help us now.

Gu Xinyi explained: "the state stipulates that the export tax rebate rate of our industry is 16%. After deducting some other expenses, it reaches us 13.68%, which is the source of profits for most garment processing enterprises.

Sometimes, even in order to get orders, enterprises will lose more in exchange rate and take part of export tax rebates to subsidize exchange rate losses.

Gu Xinyi sad: "although banks will have hundreds of billions or nearly trillion new credit growth every month, and the total amount of social financing has always maintained rapid growth. But how much money do we really flow into the real economy?" we are standing at the grass-roots level of so-called "private entrepreneurs", but we feel that financing is becoming more and more difficult and the cost of capital is getting higher and higher.

In the era of high cost, whether we can make money or not depends on the RMB exchange rate.

With such a strong appreciation of the renminbi, the profits of the enterprises are becoming less and less, and they are even running at a loss. There will be fewer and fewer people in the future.

"although we have taken account of the appreciation of the Renminbi with the customer's quotation, we have quoted the price increase at that time.

But obviously, our expectations often fail to keep pace with the actual changes in the market. When we settle accounts with our clients, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is already higher than our original expected appreciation rate, so we can only take the losses ourselves. "

Yi Hui Hong reluctantly said, "the total export volume of our company this year is about $22 million, but the loss from RMB appreciation is RMB about 2000000 yuan."

Why does RMB P appreciate all the time? What is the advantage of RMB appreciation? During the interview, Gu Xinyi repeatedly tortured reporters with this question, and expressed his inner confusion and incomprehensible expression.

linear appreciation

"why does RMB keep rising?" Pu Yonghao, chief investment officer of Asia Pacific Wealth Management, answered Gu Xinyi's first question.

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< --EndFragment-- > "RMB appreciation is partly due to the depreciation of the US dollar."

He explained that in recent years, the US dollar index has dropped from nearly 90 to about 80, and the renminbi will appreciate somewhat against the US dollar.

but this is not the whole reason.

Pu Yonghao believes that the RMB has maintained a slight appreciation against the US dollar, which is relatively less affected by market factors and more influenced by government intervention.

Pu Yonghao's answer needs more grand background to interpret.

Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, the US dollar index has experienced several ups and downs.

At the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008, the US dollar index plunged to 70.7, and the yuan rose against the US dollar.

But as the crisis continues to ferment, the trend of the dollar begins to reverse.

Because of the global risk aversion demand triggered by the crisis, the US dollar index rose to a high of nearly 88.

In principle, the yuan should go down, but at that time, the renminbi maintained a slight appreciation against the US dollar.

Since then, the US dollar index has fallen to nearly 70.7 lows in April 2011 due to the weak recovery of the US economy.

No matter how the US dollar is rising and falling, the renminbi has always maintained an appreciation posture of "honour or disgrace".

Tan Yaling, director of the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, [micro-blog], also told the International Financial Daily reporter: "from 2005 to the 8 years, the global economy has experienced two rises and three falls, 5 bands, but the renminbi has almost one band against the US dollar, and has continued to appreciate for 8 years."

After the bubble burst of the global economy in 2008, the US dollar maintained its strength for a long time due to the demand for risk avoidance. The currencies of other countries depreciated sharply against the US dollar, but the RMB maintained a slight appreciation step by step, resulting in a large number of hot money pouring into China, asset prices rose sharply, and the domestic asset price bubble problem is largely a sequela of the P.

Pu Yonghao pointed out.

Why do universal rules fail in RMB? Is China's fast growing GDP supporting the unilateral rise of RMB?

but this new evidence was quickly negated.

If China's fast and accelerating GDP (GDP) is the biggest driving force behind the appreciation of the Renminbi before 2011, then such momentum will become smaller after 2011.

2011, China's GDP growth rate was 9.2%, officially bid farewell to the double-digit growth rate that has been maintained for many years, and the growth rate of the GDP quarter dropped from 9.7%, 9.6% and 9.4% to 9.2%.

In fact, from the GDP quarter to quarter growth rate, it has started to decline from 2010, from 12.1%, 11.2%, 10.7% to 10.4%, although China's total GDP surpassed Japan in the world's second largest economy.

In 2012, China's GDP growth dropped to below 8%, just 7.8%, the lowest level in 13 years.

"China's recent a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "> economic data < /a > good and bad, there is no so-called economic stabilization.

It's strange to fail to understand the appreciation of the renminbi, "Tan Yaling said.

Similarly, in the view of Pu Yonghao, China's economic development in the past two years is not very good, so there is no basis for supporting the continued appreciation of the renminbi.

"More often, people will use more trade data to explain the pressure of RMB appreciation.

China has been a trade surplus for many years, so the appreciation of the renminbi is taken for granted.

However, in the past two or three years, China's trade surplus has been narrowing, so the appreciation rate of the Renminbi should have slowed down.

Tan Yaling pointed out: "in 2012, China's foreign trade accounted for only 1% of GDP, which is not normal for a developing country. Any developing economy is the core of the trade, and the appreciation of the renminbi has exceeded the demand of China's foreign trade, and even has damaged China's exports.

The RMB to us dollar exchange rate that accords with China's foreign trade demand should be above 7.

international cost?

What are the advantages of a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > RMB > /a > appreciation? This is Gu Xinyi's second problem and the most difficult problem to understand.

existence is reasonable.

With China's economic growth slowing down and the huge trade surplus narrowing, why does the appreciation of the renminbi remain so strong? A big reason for market analysts to explain generally is the need for RMB internationalization.

In the past two or three years, the RMB has basically been in the process of internationalization with the leap forward rhythm of P.

According to a latest survey released by the bank for International Settlements (BIS), the average daily trading volume of the global foreign exchange market in April this year was US $5 trillion and 300 billion, an increase of about 1/3 compared to 2010 April.

Among them, the average daily turnover of RMB increased from 34 billion US dollars to US $120 billion, accounting for 2.2% of the total foreign exchange pactions in the world. The average daily trading volume of RMB also jumped to ninth from the seventeenth place in 2010.

For the first time, the renminbi ranks among the ten largest trading currencies in the world.

So far, the Central Bank of China has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with a total scale of over 2 trillion and 200 billion yuan with 22 central banks or monetary authorities in 2 trillion and 200 billion countries.

RMB is accepted by more and more countries. Appreciation seems to be a very attractive factor.

Only when the value or appreciation of the renminbi held in the hands is more desirable for people to own and use it.

"Appreciation is indeed an indispensable catalyst for the internationalization of RMB, and has played a great role in the process of RMB going to the international stage in recent years."

However, Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Industrial Bank, pointed out that "in the process of RMB internationalization, more important than appreciation is the marketization of exchange rate."

Pu Yonghao also said: "internationalization of the renminbi is not necessarily a rise or fall of the renminbi. Investors are more concerned about the degree of marketization of the renminbi and can do more or shorter games according to different expectations."

however, the internationalization of "bait" with appreciation is not without cost.

Lu commissar believes that "the rapid expansion of the RMB in the offshore market is based on the introduction of RMB cross-border trade settlement pilot. Therefore, the vast majority of the renminbi is also in the trade area. At present, the renminbi as reserve currency or international mobile currency is very few."

that is to say, this internationalization is actually "lame". The internationalization of RMB can not just stay in the field of trade settlement.

"P," Lu commissar said, "the future direction is investors willing to invest in Renminbi, which means that we need to launch a large number of RMB derivatives for international investors, which also requires the marketization of the RMB exchange rate.

Without a market-oriented currency, there is only a multi mechanism and no short selling mechanism.

In the market of RMB appreciation, it is impossible to cultivate the RMB exchange rate risk avoiding market, and the market paction is always light.

"P >" in this case, the appreciation of "bait" of the "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "internationalization" /a ", is it too expensive?"

"If the RMB can drop slightly to a level of about 7, some private entrepreneurs will definitely sharpen their heads, but there are fewer and fewer people who are willing to do business now."

The private entrepreneur, who is now near the flower armor, shook his head and sighed. "I am old and can not work for several years. I really don't know what will happen later."

capital distortion

P, it is difficult to explain the rise of the RMB in both the cost of internationalization and the support of GDP.

What is the real reason? Pu Yong Hao pointed out sharply that the appreciation of the renminbi is not judged by factors such as economic data, import and export status and external pressure. "The RMB exchange rate problem has been combined with the distortion of the entire capital market in China. It is precisely the distortion of the Chinese capital market that has caused the" uncomprehensible "appreciation of the renminbi.

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Some phenomena in the domestic capital market can be proved by P < --EndFragment--!

The most obvious is the explosive growth of financial products.

Many people only see the high yield, but do not know how these returns come from? /p

Pu Yonghao explained: "almost all banks are selling high yield financial products, which means that the cost of capital in China is very high and is constantly high.

As a matter of fact, when the cost of capital is rising, the demand for capital will decrease, but the reality is not.

From the point of view of the central bank's regulation of funds, the central bank should control the amount of funds when the market capital costs are rising. However, because of the need to maintain growth, the central bank is not bold enough to tighten monetary policy, but continue to release liquidity to stimulate investment.

"a large number of basic investment and construction projects are still being launched and started, and state owned enterprises are continuously receiving financial support under the escort of the central bank, which is a major reason leading to a series of problems such as serious local government debt problems and overcapacity of state-owned enterprises."

Pu Yong Hao pointed out that "when capital interest rates are rising, market demand for capital has always been rising, which further stimulates capital interest rates to rise.

Such a vicious circle has attracted a large number of hot money into China, thereby stimulating the RMB exchange rate continues to rise, another vicious cycle has formed.

Under such circumstances, the real capital flows to the real economy is not much, and a large number of funds are increasingly solidified in the financial field, and everyone is keen on arbitrage.

Tan Yaling also said that under the environment of narrowing China's trade surplus and slowing economic growth, the influx of hot money has become the biggest force to push up the RMB. This also means that the appreciation of the RMB currently contains high risks. On the one hand, the hot money of highly speculative nature can not flow to the real economy of China, but it has upset the domestic level of capital interest rate; on the other hand, once the hot money is chosen to rush out, it will probably lead to a sharp fall in the renminbi and lead to China's economic crisis.

2014, RMB should not be 6 into 5, no more than /strong > /p >

unfortunately, we see the reason, but we can not change it.

In 2014, the "5 era" of RMB is a big probability event.

At the current middle price, the RMB can only break 6 into 5 if it appreciates by 1.8% in 2014.

In recent three years, the average appreciation of RMB has reached 3% "/p".

China Unicom's chief economist Lian Ping said there was still a great pressure of continued appreciation in 2014.

He believes that the existence of trade imbalance between China and the United States and the momentum of sustained economic growth in China are all the driving force behind the continued appreciation of the renminbi.

Zhu Haibin, chief economist of J.P. Morgan, judged that although the US dollar showed signs of a strong return to the QE scale, the trend of steady appreciation of the renminbi is hard to change this year.

but the opposite voice is not.

Bloomberg economist Michael medonn believes that the RMB exchange rate has been very close to the equilibrium level in 2013, and there has been little room for appreciation in the near future.

Wang Tao, China's chief economist at UBS Securities, also believes that the era of steady appreciation of the renminbi will end in the future.

From a fundamental point of view, the proportion of China's current account surplus to GDP has dropped from 2.3% in 2012 to 2.2% in the first three quarters of 2013, so it is difficult to say that the RMB exchange rate has been substantially underestimated.

Wang Tao therefore judged that in 2014, the RMB exchange rate will remain stable.

"the key to measuring the value of a currency lies in the purchasing power of the currency. In recent years, the purchasing power of the renminbi has declined significantly.

Many of the things made in China are cheaper overseas than domestic prices.

From this perspective, the valuation of the renminbi is indeed too high and should be depreciated. "

Pu Yong Hao pointed out that "from the dollar perspective, the Federal Reserve has announced that it began to reduce QE in January 2014. Meanwhile, the US economy has been recovering gradually. Although the recovery is not strong enough, the operation, profitability and capital of the US enterprises are not wrong.

Therefore, the long term appreciation of the US dollar is a major trend, which means that the RMB is a slow depreciation trend towards the US dollar in the medium and long term. "

Less than P, however, Pu Yong Hao also stressed that the prerequisite for such a logical situation is that no more large-scale hot money will continue to flow into China.

"The appreciation or depreciation of the renminbi in the future will be closely related to whether the distortion of the domestic capital market can be straightened out in addition to the influence of international exchange rate market changes and domestic macroeconomic factors."

As for how to straighten out the distortion of the domestic capital market, Pu Yong Hao pointed out that "the government should intervene in the interest rate as little as possible. When the interest rate of the market is rising, some of the withdrawal items will be withdrawn. Especially, we should not use subsidies to save state-owned enterprises, but let the market itself adjust the level of capital interest rates.

When the capital interest rate rises, the demand falls naturally, and the demand rate decreases, and the interest rate also drops.

In this way, hot money will not continue to pour into large scale.

in fact, in the past two years, the expectation and trend of devaluation often occur in RMB Offshore forward, and there are many deviations between offshore market and onshore market.

However, driven by the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, the offshore market and forward market expectations are eventually reversed.