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Where Is The New Skylight In The Crisis Of The Balance Treasure?

2014/1/23 20:13:00 94

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Balance Treasure Balance Treasure No. Two Scale

"P" recently, the Celestica Fund announced that the scale of the balance has exceeded 250 billion yuan, which is in line with the scale of the previous industry's prediction of 2000-3000 billion yuan. However, the industry also pointed out that when the scale of the balance reaches a certain magnitude, it will inevitably encounter bottlenecks, that is, how to attract more large and high-end funds, and these large funds often want to get more professional and personalized customized financial services. 
 facing these 250 billion ceilings, how to open up new sunroof for balance treasure? 
 data: < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > Alipay < /a > or making 5-6 billion /strong > /p >
 just last week, the Celestica Fund announced that as of January 15th, the size of the balance of the Celestica fund exceeded 250 billion yuan, and the number of users exceeded 49 million households. If the scale of the other products is about 9000000000 yuan, the total assets management of the Celestica fund has been close to 260 billion yuan, surpassing Xia Jijin, becoming the largest asset management fund company in China. 
 7 months 250 billion. There is no doubt that the Celestica fund has changed from Raven to Phoenix. 
Less than P, what is more concerned is the rapid growth of the balance treasure in January 2014. 
 it is reported that the balance treasure was launched in June 13, 2013; as of December 31, 2013, the size of the balance treasure was 185 billion 300 million yuan, while the Celestica fund's assets management scale reached 194 billion 400 million yuan in 2013, which exceeded 190 billion 500 million yuan of the Harvest Fund and jumped to second place in one fell swoop. 
Less than half a month ago, the size of the balance treasure has exceeded 250 billion yuan, and the growth rate has exceeded 65 billion yuan, an increase of more than 30%. P 
 according to WIND data, as of January 14th, the total value of the Tianhong Zeng Li Bao Monetary Fund since its establishment was 309.24 yuan, which ranks first among all class a monetary funds and the largest single fund in the country. Based on Bloomberg data, its size can be ranked fourteenth in the global monetary fund. 
 for the balance of treasure, these data not only represent the growth of scale, but also show the considerable benefits behind the scale. 
 because the balance of treasure is docking with the monetary fund, according to the management fee rate of Monetary Fund 0.3%, the scale of 250 billion yuan can bring 750 million yuan management fee income to the Celestica fund. 
 before the acquisition of the Celestica fund, Ali has been speculated about the separation between Celestica fund and Alipay. 
 a company of Shanghai fund company told NetEase science and technology that Alipay is equivalent to traditional bank for fund company for Celestica fund. In traditional channel, fund company sells fund products and needs management fee after obtaining management fee. 
 the fund company has revealed that the proportion can reach 82, and the proportion of disadvantaged fund companies will be better. 
 for this reason, the personage analysis, because the Alipay platform itself is huge user scale, so the proportion is expected to be around seven or eight%. According to this calculation, after the scale reaches 250 billion, the management fees obtained by Alipay will be 5-6 or so. 
 Guo Shuqiang, general manager of Celestica fund, has revealed in a media interview that the balance treasure is a common thing between Celestica fund and Alipay. Alipay, as a payment institution, charges the payment of service charges. The Celestica fund hithers Alipay's entrance and technical services, and pays certain technical services and promotional expenses. 
 Guo Shuqiang said at that time that by marketing with Alipay, the marketing cost was much lower than that under the line. For this reason, Tian Hong Zeng Li Bao became the most profitable product. However, for this product, Alipay and Ali group also invested a lot of resources. 
 19, NetEase technology to Alipay related parties to verify; the person said, because Alipay and Celestica cooperation is more in-depth, after Ali acquired the shares of Celestica fund, the two sides specific financial data and specific statistics have not yet unified statistics, so it is not convenient to make public. 
 Cheats: agreement deposit /p >
 in fact, the secret of real investment lies in the agreement deposit. 
 generally speaking, the IMF mainly invest in the low risk securities such as treasury bonds, financial bonds, central bank bills, bond repurchase and bank deposits with a residual period of less than 1 years, and share the investment returns of the money market. Among them, the largest part of the composition of the proceeds of the IMF is the investment income of the agreed deposit, while the interest rate of the general agreement deposit will be higher than that of the interbank offered rate at the same time. According to the insiders, the current agreement deposit rate is about 4-5 points. 
 if the funds are tight, the larger the size of the IMF is, the greater the funds will be in the process of negotiation with other institutions. The interest rate of the agreement deposits and the interbank offered rate will also change with the tight supply of funds. 
 but too large is also faced with the difficulty of finding a matching product. If there is no matching product, a large amount of capital will be left idle; then the cost of capital will rise and the yield will also fall rapidly, and the final result is that the IMF will experience a large amount of redemption and floating losses. 
 in 2006, there were many factors in the loss of IMF, but there was a large floating loss pattern. Taida bank and Yi Fangda both had negative monetary fund products. 
 < < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > Celestica fund < /a > the scale is 250 billion. If the investment is agreement deposit, how much interest rate can be talked about, it is very difficult to judge. The industry insiders said that in 2014, with the continuous progress of interest rate liberalization and the overall change of funds, it is likely to have an impact on the proceeds of the fund. 
 according to the data released by Celestica fund, the balance of the 250 billion scale treasure, more than 80% of the investment is the agreement deposit of the bank, because the proceeds from the agreement deposit is better, and it can be withdrawn in advance, whether it is from the liquidity and income, it is the best investment choice of Internet financial T+0 Monetary Fund for thousands of investment. 
 however, the IMF is so popular that it is closely related to the monetary policy environment which has not yet been marketed in China's current deposit rate. Because the interest rate of the deposit has not yet been marketization, whether it is the balance treasure or other various institutions, it is looking for the opportunity of capital arbitrage. 
 17, Lu Xiaoye, general manager of Huaxia Fund Information Technology Department, told NetEase technology at a forum that at present, China's deposit interest rate has not been fully liberalized. The key is that demand deposit interest rates have not been liberalized. If the interest rate of demand deposits is released, the Monetary Fund, including all kinds of treasure yields, will have an impact. 
 ceiling: 250 billion /p >
, then, will 250 billion become the ceiling of the balance treasure? 
 Dai Zhifeng, chief analyst of Haitong Securities banking industry, made an estimate in an analysis report in July this year, saying that the potential scale of the balance treasure should be 2000-3000 billion. 
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 < --EndFragment-- > as the essence of Monetary Fund's balance treasure, to predict its largest scale, it is necessary to see the size of China's Monetary Fund. It is reported that the total size of the Monetary Fund in China is about 360 billion, assuming that 20% of the customers who use Alipay are accustomed to it, and 72 billion of them can be turned into "balance treasure". 
 in addition, one of the potential customers of the balance treasure is the demand deposit resident. At present, the resident demand deposit balance of China is about 16 trillion, while Alipay, as the largest third party payment platform in China, has more than 800 million registered users. According to Dai Zhifeng analysis, with the further popularization of Alipay application, the liquidity level of "balance treasure" will further improve, and it is estimated that the replacement scale of "balance treasure" for demand deposits will be over 100 billion in the future. 
 the penetration ratio of reference balance treasure on Alipay platform. At that time, Dai Zhifeng made the prediction that the growth space of the balance treasure in the short and medium term is about 2000-3000 billion. 
 however, when the size of the balance reached 250 billion, the media noticed a detail: the balance treasure began to limit the amount of users transferred to Alipay funds in single month and single month .
 for this reason, some analysts believe that this is because the implementation of the T+0 trading system of the balance treasure, with the expansion of the scale of the balance of treasure, Alipay needs to pay the amount of transactions continue to expand. 
 the Celestica fund people explained that the quota is expected to be guided by Alipay users to use Yu Ebao as the underlying account, directly using the balance treasure to complete the activities of shopping payment and credit card repayment, and skip Yu Ebao's first balance to pay the Alipay balance before paying, so as to optimize the customer experience. In addition, another reason is to prevent user accounts from being stolen, resulting in the large amount of funds being transferred out of the security account. 
 Yuan Leiming, general manager of the Finance Department of Alibaba small and micro financial services group, told NetEase technology that before making product design, Ali specifically consulted the traditional financial institutions, such as the establishment of a lot of business rules, and the investment amount of a single household with the balance of treasure can not exceed 1 million. 
 Yuan Leiming said that because the average investment amount of Alipay users is only 4000 yuan, Ali predicts that the forecast deviation rate of daily customers' liquidity demand will not exceed 5% through the big data forecast, so it has been able to fully arrange these liquidity, so there will not be the risk of payment after the scale expansion. 
 shaking up the big client of the bank. No way! /p >
 deadline mismatch and liquidity mismatch, or to some extent, cause pressure of payment pressure and underwriting; in addition, the famous economist Chen Zhiwu also raised another problem of balance treasure, namely credit risk, , at the annual meeting of NetEase economists.
 "if any Internet Co has launched the" balance treasure "or other products, what guarantee will these internet financial companies rely on? What are the requirements of the default? What are the requirements of capital? Should we ask the operator to make provision according to the capital ratio? On the other hand, if the Internet financial company does not have its own capital to participate in each investment project, will the Internet financial company have enough incentive to select every investment type?" 
 Chen Zhiwu analysis shows that the secondary housing mortgage loan problem reflected in the American subprime mortgage crisis shows that when the financial operators do not have their own funds to share the same difficulties with their clients' funds, the incentive of the operators will be distorted, and the credit risks and other risks of the projects will not be so prudent. 
 Dai Zhifeng also believes that once the scale of the balance treasure reaches a certain magnitude, it will inevitably encounter bottlenecks, that is, how to attract larger funds and higher end funds. For the current balance of about 4000 of the funds, it is difficult to attract large sums of money because of the lack of credit advantages. 
 in addition, after reaching a certain scale, the liquidity management pressure will increase significantly. Dai Zhifeng believes that the "balance treasure" domestic fund can be consumed on Tmall and Taobao at any time, but the monetary fund can only settle the balance with the "balance treasure" after the daily closing of the fund. During this period, Alipay has made a credit advance for the monetary fund, and if the monetary fund fails to make delivery on time with Alipay, Alipay will be at risk. 
Compared with the P, the bank's capital volume is much higher than that of Alipay, and it has a liquidity guarantee that supports the mutual support of the financial system, and the ability to resist shocks is much higher than that of the former. Therefore, Alipay can hardly attract the main customers of banks in the short term. 
 in addition, because the bank has a "28" phenomenon, that is, 20% of the customers provide 80% profits, Ali financial services mainly serve 80% of the smaller customers. 
 "big funds often want to get more professional and personalized customized financial services". Dai Zhifeng believes that the traditional financial institutions are rich in asset end business, have high-quality financial talents, and have stronger financial resources integration capabilities, so they can provide customized services for high-end customers. 
 Internet Finance lacks the ability to differentiate services on the one hand. In addition, the core of Internet finance is standardized low cost expansion. Customized service is contrary to its business mode. Therefore, "Internet finance will be a financial supermarket in the future, but not a high-end custom shop". 
 skylight: < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > > balance treasure two < /a > or after the festival online /p >
 on the 16 th 2014 China Internet Finance high-level forum, NetEase science and technology learned from the informed sources close to the balance of treasure, Ali's balance Bao two will be launched after the Spring Festival, tentatively called "regular treasure", positioning short-term financial management. 
 according to the insider, there are five fund companies participating in cooperation, namely, the Fonda fund, the southern fund, the ICBC Credit Suisse fund, the debbond fund and the Dao Fu fund. 
 unlike the balance treasure mode, the "regular treasure" will be placed on the mobile platform, mainly investing in fixed income areas, including cash, notice deposits, large certificates of deposit, bonds and other investment varieties. 
 NetEase technology is hereby verified to Alipay. Alipay stakeholders told NetEase technology that Alipay has indeed considered developing more user friendly financial products with more partners, but there is no product details yet to be disclosed. 
 in fact, at the end of last year, there were rumors in the industry that Celestica found that in the product design process, there was no obvious revenue advantage compared with Tianhong Zeng Li Bao, so it was not reported related products at present. 
 however, NetEase technology has noticed that the Dao Fu fund, one of the five fund companies cooperating with the two phase of the balance treasure, has applied for the application of the "60 day financial debt based products of Tao Le" to the Securities Regulatory Commission. The SFC accepted it in November 8th, and approved according to the routine procedure channel, which is expected to be completed in half a year. 
 in addition, the News quoted by the media from people familiar with the matter is regularly fixed in the mobile terminal, while the main mobile phone platform will also launch the PC terminal. However, Alipay will give free transfers to mobile phone users to attract free investment, attracting investors to participate. The "regular treasure" background will also directly enter the "Ali cloud" system, mainly to support the development of large customers. 
 take this location, at the mobile terminal entrance, regular treasure will launch a positive battle with WeChat financial communications pioneer.